In 1992, future President of Venezuela Hugo Chavez, with the rough support of 10% of the military, led a coup to overthrow the sitting President Carlos Andrés Pérez.
Pérez was a formerly popular President who oversaw Venezuela’s economic boom in the 70’s from booming oil exports, but was voted out due to government corruption and supposed misuse of profits gained from the boom. Voted back into the Presidency in the late 80’s, Pérez attempted to implement neoliberal economic policies to relive the Venezuelan economy after a decade of downturn came after he ran a populist, anti-neoliberal campaign. Pérez famously referred to the IMF as “a neutron bomb that killed people, but left people standing,” only to take a 4.5 Billion dollar loan once in office.
In the wake of a popular revolt after Pérez took office (known as
Caracazo), things went quiet until 1992, where Chávez attemped to seize key military outposts, take the Presidential Palace, capture Pérez, and execute him. The coup failed, however, when Admiral Hernan Odreman refused to execute the plan once he learned that former President Rafael Caldera was intended to succeed Pérez’s place. Pérez got wind of what was going on, and began to flee to the palace, where Chávez’s men were killed. Chávez, left without any support from his men and the coup failed, was arrested.
What would have it taken for the plan to succeed (Odreman sticks with the plan, Pérez doesn’t flee), and what would happen if it succeeded? Would Chávez take control and implement his own brand of left-wing populism, or would he let Caldera have more of the control?