WI:The USSR wins the Soviet-Polish

Firstly the Soviet radio codes are not broken. During the battle of Warsaw in 1920 the 203rd Uhlan Regiment fails to break through the Soviet lines resulting in the soviet frontline command post resulting in better communication between soviet forces throughout the battle of Warsaw. As a result the Soviets respond better to the Sikorski's 5th army's rapid advance, bringing it to a halt as Soviet 1st cavalry army moves to support the line while the Soviet 16th army makes a more rapid advance against the Polish forces east of the Vistula. This results in Warsaw being enveloped, after continued heavy fighting the envelopment and poor logistics of the Polish army begin to crumble resulting in its defeat by the end of September.

After this its likely that Poland would be made into a puppet state and all of Belarus and the Ukraine would be too. Its likely that Britain and France would more to protect countries like German and Hungary who already had socialist revolts the previous year and would becoming increasingly concerned. But how would it all end?
 
After this its likely that Poland would be made into a puppet state and all of Belarus and the Ukraine would be too. Its likely that Britain and France would more to protect countries like German and Hungary who already had socialist revolts the previous year and would becoming increasingly concerned. But how would it all end?

I would have expected Poland to become a full SSR.

I'm not sure if much would happen, besides the Soviet Union being a bit larger and stronger (Poland would be restive, but it's still richer than most other regions of the Soviet Union).

With Hungary, I don't expect much would happen, the Soviets weren't very interested in it even when the revolution was going on there.

For Germany... Well, the Soviets are at the end of their tether, and when Germany doesn't break out in revolution, I can't see them invading and trying to spread socialism by force.

Britain, Italy and France might do more to help Romania, Czechoslovakia and Finland strengthen themselves militarily. The most I can see for Germany is them being allowed to maintain a somewhat larger army in return for concessions, or they could be offered the opportunity to pay for French and Italian armies to come and protect them.

The Soviet Union taking Poland was something people were already expecting to happen, I can see some alarm when it actually comes to pass, but not much.

I do wonder what would happen with the Baltic states. In TTL they'd be in an even more precarious position.

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raharris1973

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What about East Prussia though? If the Soviets occupy all Poland, they have also enveloped East Prussia and Danzig. Even if they are too much at the end of their tether to think they can march on to Berlin, might they be tempted to "give history a nudge" by occupying East Prussia and proclaiming a German Communist nucleus there?
 
What about East Prussia though? If the Soviets occupy all Poland, they have also enveloped East Prussia and Danzig. Even if they are too much at the end of their tether to think they can march on to Berlin, might they be tempted to "give history a nudge" by occupying East Prussia and proclaiming a German Communist nucleus there?

That could get exciting fast...

According to this, the Entente had only just started disarming Germany, so if the Soviets do invade, the Germans could very quickly pull together a decent sized fighting force if the Entente allow them. It may be that I am reacting against the injudicious aggression people often project on the Soviets (who were certainly aggressive, but weren't looking to commit suicide), but I think there'd be some concern about the risk of pushing the Germans into bed with the Entente. Also, my understanding is that Lenin really believed that the real revolution would happen in Germany, so I was envisioning a situation where the exhausted Soviets stop at the border and let the initiative slip away as they wait for the German revolution to happen. Though, they'd also need to straighten out their logistics.

Though what could really change this is if a worker's revolution actually did happen (just a small one - by this point Germany was well past the worst of its revolutionary risk). Or, fearing potential revolution, a second militarist putsch happens. It's plausible, with imperfect information, that either of those could make it seem like Germany is on the brink of True Revolution and the Soviets need to go into Germany NOW before the Imperialists strangle the thing in its crib. In that case, I expect the Soviets to only spare any effort for East Prussia if they fear it could be used as a base to hit their lines from behind.

Boy, that would be a mess... The Soviets blundering into Germany like that wouldn't go well, I think.

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