WI: The USSR funds Moderate rebels in saudi arabia

What is the likely fate of Saudi Arabia?

  • The Moderate rebels don't last long and then things go mostly like OTL

    Votes: 19 57.6%
  • A long 5+ year conflict, but the US wins and keeps the current goverment in power

    Votes: 9 27.3%
  • It takes quite some time but the USSR gets a Communist Saudi Arabia.

    Votes: 5 15.2%

  • Total voters
    33
If in 1978 the USSR were to supply "moderate rebels" and who ever would overthrow the king to install a Communist government would Jimmy carter do anything about it?

Would the USSR likely end up with a friendly Communist Saudi Arabia or would have to fight the US in a proxy war over the middle eastern state?
 
If in 1978 the USSR were to supply "moderate rebels" and who ever would overthrow the king to install a Communist government would Jimmy carter do anything about it?

Well, extrapolating backwards from what he said two years later...

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.

So, assuming he meant this seriously, he likely would have done SOMETHING about it, although I'm not sure what. But one can imagine a Communist-government in Saudi Arabia(or whatever it would be called) alienating large sections of the population by pressing full-speed ahead on social reform(again, extrapolating backwards from Afghanistan), so that might provide Jim and Zbig with their opening.

That said, South Yemen has a Marxist government that managed to hang on for decades, and I'm not sure how different Yemen is from the KSA. So, possibly a Communist government in the former Saudi Arabia wouldn't be a total fustercluck.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Well, extrapolating backwards from what he said two years later...



So, assuming he meant this seriously, he likely would have done SOMETHING about it, although I'm not sure what. But one can imagine a Communist-government in Saudi Arabia(or whatever it would be called) alienating large sections of the population by pressing full-speed ahead on social reform(again, extrapolating backwards from Afghanistan), so that might provide Jim and Zbig with their opening.

That said, South Yemen has a Marxist government that managed to hang on for decades, and I'm not sure how different Yemen is from the KSA. So, possibly a Communist government in the former Saudi Arabia wouldn't be a total fustercluck.

Saudi Arabia has oil, lots, while Yemen doesn't. Plus in Saudi Arabia are Mecca and Medina, with this all in communist hands I would think you would have a major US reaction.
 

Pangur

Donor
If in 1978 the USSR were to supply "moderate rebels" and who ever would overthrow the king to install a Communist government would Jimmy carter do anything about it?

Would the USSR likely end up with a friendly Communist Saudi Arabia or would have to fight the US in a proxy war over the middle eastern state?
If you drop the communist bit and settle for someone who will try to be neutral then the odds increase as does the chances of getting more support
 
Plus in Saudi Arabia are Mecca and Medina, with this all in communist hands I would think you would have a major US reaction.

Plot twist: Radical Maoist faction takes over the Revolution and stages dunce-cappings of Imams while dynamiting Mecca into the ground. Good or bad for US efforts at rallying Saudi populace against the commies?
 
Plus in Saudi Arabia are Mecca and Medina, with this all in communist hands I would think you would have a major US reaction.

Plot twist: Radical Maoist faction takes over the Revolution and stages dunce-cappings of Imams while dynamiting Mecca into the ground. Good or bad for US efforts at rallying Saudi populace against the commies?

Not so much good for US efforts to rally the Saudis then a death kneel to Soviet influence in the Muslim world, which includes a good part of the Soviet Union itself.
 
Plus in Saudi Arabia are Mecca and Medina, with this all in communist hands I would think you would have a major US reaction.

Plot twist: Radical Maoist faction takes over the Revolution and stages dunce-cappings of Imams while dynamiting Mecca into the ground. Good or bad for US efforts at rallying Saudi populace against the commies?
Possible Qarmatian revival in the aftermath?
 
If in 1978 the USSR were to supply "moderate rebels" and who ever would overthrow the king to install a Communist government would Jimmy carter do anything about it?

Would the USSR likely end up with a friendly Communist Saudi Arabia or would have to fight the US in a proxy war over the middle eastern state?

Maybe a Nasserist secular regime alingned to the CCCP like the UAR instead open communist ? In 1969, there had been a failes Nasserist coup in KSA, I made a thread about this. People pointed out the difficulties regarding the prestige of holding Mecca and Medina in contrast of an non/anti-religious government .
 
Not so much good for US efforts to rally the Saudis then a death kneel to Soviet influence in the Muslim world, which includes a good part of the Soviet Union itself.

Well, if, as per my scenario, the radical faction is Maoist, and it's the late 1970s, they might declare allegiance with Albania. Which would really suck for Enver Hoxha.
 
Maybe a Nasserist secular regime alingned to the CCCP like the UAR instead open communist ? In 1969, there had been a failes Nasserist coup in KSA, I made a thread about this. People pointed out the difficulties regarding the prestige of holding Mecca and Medina in contrast of an non/anti-religious government .

I think if even so much as a midly anti-clerical party were to take over Saudi Arabia, it would become neccessary to arrange some sort of autnomous status for Mecca and Medina. Maybe affiliated with some sort of international or quasi-international body, similar to the Vatican.
 
I think if even so much as a midly anti-clerical party were to take over Saudi Arabia, it would become neccessary to arrange some sort of autnomous status for Mecca and Medina. Maybe affiliated with some sort of international or quasi-international body, similar to the Vatican.

There would always be a religious authority, who aims to controll Mecca, who would that be in that case ?
 
Well, extrapolating backwards from what he said two years later...



So, assuming he meant this seriously, he likely would have done SOMETHING about it, although I'm not sure what. But one can imagine a Communist-government in Saudi Arabia(or whatever it would be called) alienating large sections of the population by pressing full-speed ahead on social reform(again, extrapolating backwards from Afghanistan), so that might provide Jim and Zbig with their opening.

That said, South Yemen has a Marxist government that managed to hang on for decades, and I'm not sure how different Yemen is from the KSA. So, possibly a Communist government in the former Saudi Arabia wouldn't be a total fustercluck.

Jimmy Carter though wasn't one who liked getting into war though, so it's kind of doubtful he would have done much. As for the whole religion thing couldn't the USSR just come in after the Communist Government is installed and crack down on the crazy's that want to blow themselves up over not being able to force everyone to believe in it?

The US screws with the middle east all the time, so with a less pro war leader why couldn't the USSR get away with it in Saudi Arabia in this era?
 
I think Saudi is a 'strong' state, in that they keep their country firmly under their power with a highly efficient secret police. Any rebels would have to operate under the tight scrutiny of the Mabahith, who would step up their efforts in the event of Soviet meddling.

In addition I imagine it would be difficult to conduct weapons smuggling and other covert operations in an open, desert environment devoid of concealing cover
 
Retroactive wrote:

As for the whole religion thing couldn't the USSR just come in after the Communist Government is installed and crack down on the crazy's that want to blow themselves up over not being able to force everyone to believe in it?


I'm really wondering how possible it would be for the USSR to just target the crazies, without it being perceived as an attack on religious people generally.

You know the kind of Christian who says things like "It's horrible that we can't teach the Bible in science class; this is the first step toward shipping all believers off to concentration camps!!" Now imagine what's gonna be going through that guy's mind if a foreign country conducts a large-scale military intervention in order to prop up a political party that's enforcing the rule against teaching creationism.
 
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