WI: The USA launches a airstrike on North Korea in 1994

In 1994, there was a rise in tensions between the US and North Korea, like always, about the latter's nuclear weapons program. As a result, on June 16th, Defense Secretary William Perry and Joint Chiefs Chairman John Shalikashvili briefed President Clinton and his National Security Council on options for defending South Korea against the distinct possibility North Korea might soon attack.

Two days before, Perry had met with his military commanders to discuss a possible strike against Yongbyon, a nuclear weapons facility in North Korea. He was confident that the strike could've been accomplished without nuclear contamination. However, he feared that the strike could've sparked a war on the Korean Peninsula. He kept the plan to himself as a last resort if new sanctions wouldn't do anything.

However, the meeting was interrupted by a phone call from Jimmy Carter from Pyongyang, announcing succesful negotiations with Kim-il-Sung. Those negotiations would lead to the Agreed Framework, in which North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear program in return for new nuclear reactors that didn’t produce weapons-grade plutonium, along with oil to help meet to its energy needs. This agreement, however, broke down in 2003.

But what if Perry had informed President Clinton of this option and after Jimmy Carter's negotiations fail in Pyongyang, he decides to launch an airstrike on North Korea?
 
In 1994, there was a rise in tensions between the US and North Korea, like always, about the latter's nuclear weapons program. As a result, on June 16th, Defense Secretary William Perry and Joint Chiefs Chairman John Shalikashvili briefed President Clinton and his National Security Council on options for defending South Korea against the distinct possibility North Korea might soon attack.

Two days before, Perry had met with his military commanders to discuss a possible strike against Yongbyon, a nuclear weapons facility in North Korea. He was confident that the strike could've been accomplished without nuclear contamination. However, he feared that the strike could've sparked a war on the Korean Peninsula. He kept the plan to himself as a last resort if new sanctions wouldn't do anything.

However, the meeting was interrupted by a phone call from Jimmy Carter from Pyongyang, announcing succesful negotiations with Kim-il-Sung. Those negotiations would lead to the Agreed Framework, in which North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear program in return for new nuclear reactors that didn’t produce weapons-grade plutonium, along with oil to help meet to its energy needs. This agreement, however, broke down in 2003.

But what if Perry had informed President Clinton of this option and after Jimmy Carter's negotiations fail in Pyongyang, he decides to launch an airstrike on North Korea?

In the immortal words of Luke Skywalker, I have a bad feeling about this....
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I would suspect that the opposite of what everyone might think happen would: the air strike cows the NKs as their policy of deterrence fails and they fear losing a resulting full scale war. Just an opinion and one I think is true today too.
 
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