SinghKing
Banned
The long term effect for the US is obviously immigration. There would be a fairly large Liberian enclave somewhere, like the Bronx or something.
The thing is, couldn't this obvious influx of non-white Liberian immigrants into the United States lead to vocal anti-imperialist Senators and Congressmen opposing annexation on racist grounds (as they did IOTL in opposing the annexation of The Philippines- but potentially to a far greater extent, given Liberia's racial demographic, and its history as a colony created by the USA itself specifically to repatriate African-Americans back to Africa rather than emancipating them)? Could this factor potentially deter FDR's USA from annexing Liberia outright, with the US merely seeking to either install a new puppet government in Liberia or force some humble pie down the throats of its existing Liberian puppet government instead?
And even if this was indeed the case, and the US expedition wouldn't be one of conquest, then would FDR and the US Congress deem it to be worthwhile to wage a naval expedition to enact a military occupation of Liberia at all? Do they have enough to gain from doing so? Even if the Liberian government itself does refuse to repay any further loan repayments outright, and seizes the Firestone plantation along with all of Firestone's other Liberian assets, then would the US President and Congress both still agree to take the USA to war against Liberia over the affair, in the context of FDR's isolationist, anti-interventionist foreign policy at the time, and given the USA's experience of fighting guerilla insurgents in the Philippine-American War?
And if the POD has a more slow-burning impact which either leads to the legitimate Liberian President Edwin J. Barclay being deposed in a military coup, or to the Republic of Liberia being overthrown in a violent uprising, then we can safely assume that the Republic of Liberia would have been forced to default on its massive, spiralling national debts entirely. In which case, why would the USA support an expensive military expedition to re-install an ousted goverment which wouldn't even be capable of completing the repayment of its pre-existing national debts back to the US treasury, and to American investors, for the next fifty years? Other than national prestige (which fighting a messy campaign in Western Africa wouldn't provide an awful lot of, if any at all), what incentive would the United States's political and military leaders really have to fight such a war?
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