What if the US never occupied the nation of Hawaii and turned it into a state? As a bonus, how would this affect World War II?
Well, it would probably have been the British who occupied it. Pearl Harbour as a British naval base sounds like an interesting development.What if the US never occupied the nation of Hawaii and turned it into a state? As a bonus, how would this affect World War II?
food for thought, actually the Russians also had a presence in Hawaii until the 1860's,Well, it would probably have been the British who occupied it. Pearl Harbour as a British naval base sounds like an interesting development.
IIRC Britain and France had a gentleman's agreement that neither would occupy or make a protectorate out of the Hawaiian islands. One time the captain of a visiting Royal Navy warship apparently tried to claim the Kingdom off his own bat only to have his superior commander repudiate his actions and apologise for them. If the agreement with France were to change I'd expect it to become a protectorate like Tonga rather than a colony.Well, it would probably have been the British who occupied it. Pearl Harbour as a British naval base sounds like an interesting development.
The Kingdom was overthrown in 1898, and was annexed the same year, so this is better suited for the pre-1900.What if the US never occupied the nation of Hawaii and turned it into a state? As a bonus, how would this affect World War II?
And for the bolded:
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The point of noting the butterflies being that any World War 2 is going to be significantly different from what we know, if it happens at all, not that the Americans and Japanese will never enter a state of conflict over their influences in the Pacific.snip
The point of noting the butterflies being that any World War 2 is going to be significantly different from what we know, if it happens at all, not that the Americans and Japanese will never enter a state of conflict over their influences in the Pacific.
No USA owned Hawai'i doesn't change the fact that Japan is in China, or occupies French IndoChina from the Vichy. As someone else mentioned- it doesn't change much. Making a POD change doesn't mean change the probability of a dice roll; eg- a PoD in Hawai'i in 1899 doesn't mean a die that rolled a 6 in Europe OTL three days later will roll any different in the ATL, butterflies don't break the speed of light and they don't spontaneously emerge. You have to show a continuous link between the POD and any other changes. Otherwise your introducing a NEW additional pod.The point of noting the butterflies being that any World War 2 is going to be significantly different from what we know, if it happens at all, not that the Americans and Japanese will never enter a state of conflict over their influences in the Pacific.
Butterflies sort of do emerge from nothing. You are essentially changing a huge chunks of the maps made after 1899, and every newspaper, magazine or journal article about Hawaii, and the schedules of every ship and every person who visited Hawaii vis a vis OTL. That is lots of really small changes that can suddenly spawn much larger changes seemingly from nowhere (ie someone spends a bit more or less time reading the newspaper and thus starts their commute a bit earlier or later, resulting in an accident occurring or not occurring)No USA owned Hawai'i doesn't change the fact that Japan is in China, or occupies French IndoChina from the Vichy. As someone else mentioned- it doesn't change much. Making a POD change doesn't mean change the probability of a dice roll; eg- a PoD in Hawai'i in 1899 doesn't mean a die that rolled a 6 in Europe OTL three days later will roll any different in the ATL, butterflies don't break the speed of light and they don't spontaneously emerge. You have to show a continuous link between the POD and any other changes. Otherwise your introducing a NEW additional pod.
That is one school of thought. One I don't subscribe to and I find very dubious. And one that is, at least twice, dismissed and shown why it is unlikely, in the "What if?" collection of essays edited by Robert Cowley.Butterflies sort of do emerge from nothing. You are essentially changing a huge chunks of the maps made after 1899, and every newspaper, magazine or journal article about Hawaii, and the schedules of every ship and every person who visited Hawaii vis a vis OTL. That is lots of really small changes that can suddenly spawn much larger changes seemingly from nowhere (ie someone spends a bit more or less time reading the newspaper and thus starts their commute a bit earlier or later, resulting in an accident occurring or not occurring)
Never read that, and I don't really see how this can be dismissed, even ignoring the whole quantum/brownian motion argument in favorThat is one school of thought. One I don't subscribe to and I find very dubious. And one that is, at least twice, dismissed and shown why it is unlikely, in the "What if?" collection of essays edited by Robert Cowley.
Not sure where you got your source, but Sanford Dole overthrew the Kingdom of Hawaii in 1893 and set up the republic, but Cleveland refused to annex Hawaii since he saw the intervention of U.S citizens there as shameful, and he actually tried to get Dole to reinstate the queen but was refused. It wasn't until McKinley after him was elected that Hawaii was annexed. Maybe a president more along the lines of Cleveland might result in Hawaii not being a state, or possibly a stronger move by the government to censure Dole.The Kingdom was overthrown in 1898, and was annexed the same year, so this is better suited for the pre-1900.
None the less, the Kingdom will likely remain independent but with a strong European presence. The British and the French had recognised Hawaii as an Independent State, and whilst one can argue "so did the Americans but they annexed it", the circumstances surrounding American annexation are unlikely to repeat under Britain or France. So It'll remain an independent state, and it will fall into the spheres of whichever power (European or American) is the strongest in the Pacific.
And for the bolded:
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In your quantum remark you're assuming again that probability is affected by a macro-change. It isnt. You're turning back the clock, making an a change, and setting the clock forward. An atom in Switzerland will decay at the same time as it did OTL, pod changes are not instantaneous across the universe! I make a PoD where the Alexander the Great isn't born, doesn't suddenly allow sentient life to evolve on Mars and conquer Earth in 2150. You simply have to show cause and effect leading from one to the other.Never read that, and I don't really see how this can be dismissed, even ignoring the whole quantum/brownian motion argument in favor
The fact is, Hawaii being independent of the US would result in immediate changes in almost everything written about Hawaii, changes in wording will of course result in a different amount of time reading things. An independent Hawaii would also have different border control rules and affect everyone going too and from by taking a different amount of time to clear those. Do you deny this?
Because this would lead to slight changes in schedule with anyone who goes to Hawaii, or does business with Hawaii, or reads about Hawaii, or interacts with someone who does one of those things. A few seconds here or there can cause or avoid a lot of accidents, traffic and otherwise
This is of course ignoring more major changes, like possibly reducing or increasing the backlash against Imperialism in the US, which would of course effect US politics, and possibly the Spanish-American War aftermath and thus international relations
The Quantum argument is that Atomic decay is purely random. In analogy OTL fired off an RNG to determine when that atom decayed and got back one result, going back in time to change things results in the RNG getting fired again and a different result, because it is random. I am ambivalent about this argument, and specifically say I am ignoring it for the purpose of this conversation, just like I am putting aside the Brownian motion argument which I am not ambivalent aboutIn your quantum remark you're assuming again that probability is affected by a macro-change. It isnt. You're turning back the clock, making an a change, and setting the clock forward. An atom in Switzerland will decay at the same time as it did OTL, pod changes are not instantaneous across the universe! I make a PoD where the Alexander the Great isn't born, doesn't suddenly allow sentient life to evolve on Mars and conquer Earth in 2150. You simply have to show cause and effect leading from one to the other.
To your other point, such as newspapers, it is covered in the book I mentioned, the argument is, yes a PoD change causes ripples, but all the other things around the world you DIDNT change are providing a bigger combined influence. History will "circle back" to OTL without a HUGE pod or multiple pods. The pod only affects things that the original affected as time goes on, this becomes more and more. But, depending on the time period, the ripple of the butterfly goes out at different speeds. A POD in 1100 AD Yucatan Peninsula will not affect Europe or China history from OTL for centuries or at all depending on how big it is. A POD in the 21st century can move quicker because of speed of communication. Even a PoD in Hawai'i at 1899 (no annexation) will take weeks or months to circle the world and affect anything else. And no it can't affect the Spanish American War because that occured prior to OTL annexation. It's a fait accompli by the time of your pod.