I never called it a victory. In fact, I believe I see the phrase "not a win" in my earlier post. I guess I look at it like this: If a fool taunts a Grizzly Bear in its den and comes out with all his limbs attached and most of his blood still inside him, he's accomplished something. He hasn't necessarily beaten the bear, though.
Is it still such a great achievement if the reason he survived is because the grizzly was busy fighting a polar bear at the time? In your original post you said -
They went to war with the superpower of their day and and managed not only to survive, but to hold their own and to reach a treaty settlement.
Erm, no. If there was anybody who could be described as "the" superpower at the time it was Imperial France, which power was not only the USA's co-belligerent (ally is probably putting it too strongly) but locked in a death struggle with Britain at the time. It's probably fair to say that that war was when Britain definitively overtook France for hyperpower status, but it hadn't happened yet.
This isn't a trivial point - thanks to the overwhelming priority of the war in Europe, the entirety of the USA's effort was focussed on overcoming local militias, colonial troops, and such leftovers as could be spared from Europe commanded by a team of officers who could only be described as the B Team if you were feeling particularly generous. They still only just dragged out a draw - nothing to be ashamed of, but not really in "We fought the superpower to a standstill! woot!" territory.
Speaking personally, but I've always thought the best one line summary of the War of 1812 I've ever come across is "the British won, the Americans drew, and the Indians lost." To get a clear American defeat is probably doable, but I doubt it'd look mich different in the overall scheme of things - as already discussed, some border revisions in Maine and protection of the Indians for a generation or so until they get overwhelmed - although this does offer potential for butterflies, if the Indian Confederacy is still around if and when an ATL version of the Trail of Tears happens, do the Cherokee, etc. get herded up there instead?