WI: The US goes to war over the Panay sinking

The USS Panay served in the Asiatic Fleet of the US Navy on the Yangszte River, protecting American nationals and property being threatened in the disturbances of Warlord Era China. In this capacity, she took part in the evacuation of American embassy staff from Nanking in December 1937.

For their part, the Japanese Army had a 'attack any and all ships' order sent to planes operating under the Navy Air Service. After requesting and receiving confirmation of the order, the Japanese Navy sunk the Panay, killing three Americans and wounding 43. Not only was the Panay destroyed, but three Standard Oil tankers, which were evacuating families of Standard Oil employees, were destroyed as well.

The Japanese government took full responsibility for sinking the Panay, but continued to maintain that the attack had been unintentional, claiming that none of their servicemen saw any American flags. This was contradicted by a US Navy court of inquiry, which claimed that several American flags were visible on the ship. The Japanese government would pay a indemnity, but tensions remained high between Japan and the US.

What if rather than allowing the Japanese to get away with the sinking without any repercussions, Roosevelt used the sinking as a casus belli to declare war against Japan, in much the same way as the Maine had been used to justify the war against Spain in 1898?
 

DougM

Donor
Your example of the Maine is not a very good one. Their is absolutely NO doubt that Japan committed an act of war by sinking US ships. But even today we are not 100% sure what happened to the Maine.

The downside of this (for the US) vs PH in 41 is that the Fleet was 100% innocent and was caught on a ‘religious” day of rest in the morning during the build up the the biggest religious holiday of the year. In short the only way Americans get more upset is if Japan attacked a US city on Christmas itself.
But the Panay was an active warship in a known dangerous location. So it has a bit more of a “you took your chances” kind of vibe going. So the will of the people won’t be as great. Thus not everyone is going to drop everything and put up with the hardships and long hours and such as they tended to in WW2.
Still ultimately Japan is still screwed. They are going to ultimately lose the war But it will be fought ata slower pass and you won’t see as many land invasions. But I think a bigger reliance on sinking the Japanese Navy then choking off the various locations by cutting the supply lines and leaving them to wither on the vine. So the war will not be particularly short.
On the plus side for France and England when the get into it with Germany (whenever that happens) they will have more to fight Germany with as the US will be taking care of Japan and the Pacific so they won’t need to split thier attention as it were. So almost all resources can go to Europe. Also they will be building up a bit more sooner as they will be worried (at first) about the Pacific. But the built up resources will be shift to Europe once Hitlet starts his bit.
Actually this may delay or stop Hitler as France and England will already be slowly building up thier military because of the mess in the Pacific.
Also they will be able to buy more sooner from the US as the US industry will already be on a war footing. Also some technology lessons that England had to learn may have been figured out by the US before England gets involved.
Note these assumption are based on Japan not going totally insane and attacking France and or England while fighting the US in 37-40. If Japan is THAT stupid then they will see a combined fleet blowing the Japanese Navy out of the water as fast as they can chase them down and then bombarding the Japanese mainland until the come to terms.
One thing that an early start will result in is a lot less emphasis on aircraft and we may actually see Battleship vs Battleship engagements being more common
 
It would not be politically possible, given the isolationist temper of the American people in 1937, to use the Panay affair as an excuse to go to war (which the US military was not ready for and which FDR didn't want to do, anyway). The actual effect of the Panay incident in OTL was to strengthen isolationism in the US.

As David M. Kennedy writes in Freedom from Fear: The American People in Depression and War, 1929-1945, p. 402: "But the Panay was not to be a modern Maine, nor even a Lusitania. Its sinking produced a cry for withdrawal, not for war. 'We should learn that it is about time for us to mind our own business,' Texas Democrat Maury Maverick declared in the House. A few months later, a Fortune magazine poll showed that a majority of Americans favored getting the United States out of China altogether. When Japan tendered an official apology for the Panay incident and paid some $2 million in reparations, the crisis swiftly blew over.

"The principal residue of the Panay affair in Congress was not more bellicosity but more pacifism [citing the boost the incident gave to the proposed Ludlow Amendment]... https://books.google.com/books?id=UQlEq9GILRgC&pg=PR111
 
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