WI: The Upper South stays in the union

Grimbald

Monthly Donor
Either a very short war or if the upper south stays neutral then a longer war with the maritime side being much more important
 
Either a very short war or if the upper south stays neutral then a longer war with the maritime side being much more important

I don't think the Union will allow anyone to stay neutral. After all, that's still tantamount to treason.

The war would be much shorter, which, ironically, might extend slavery by preventing the extensive destruction of the South's economy, and the Emancipation Declaration. But that's been much-discussed on this board.
 
What if Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Missouri, and Kentucky stayed in the Union?

In effect, Kentucky and Missouri DID stay in the Union.

The people of Kentucky voted by huge proportions to stay, but you needed (as OTL) to run the elections within the first year of the war to do this.

Missouri did not secede. If the Show Me State was in the same condition in 1860 as it was in 1850, they would have seceded. But the waves of Anti-Slavery (and Anti-Confederate System Political beliefs) Prussians who poured into Missouri (Truman counted them among his ancestors IIRC) in the ten years before Fort Sumter drastically altered the political map of Missouri. Essentially, the only place in the state that was still staunchly Pro-Slavery and Pro-Confederate was in the relatively sparsely populated SW third of the state (think of Jefferson City). The region that produced the Missouri Guerrillas, Bloody Bill Anderson, Lee Quantrill, and the Outlaw Josey Wales:cool::rolleyes::love:.

I don't see Arkansas NOT seceding, anymore than I would expect SW Missouri not launching a Pro-Slavery uprising that went on for years pre-Sumter.

Both Virginia AND Tennessee (especially the latter) had economies far too dependent on Slavery , and after all it was the Planters who were running things.

Though to be fair West Virginia DID have an "intra-secession" from Virginia as the mountain people correctly saw that they had no irons in the fire for the CSA.

Also, while Eastern Tennessee was not strong enough to secede on its own, they could and did provide a large shot in the arm for Union Army enlistments (not counting 180,000 free and freed Blacks that served). This was why Lincoln ordered the Knoxville Campaign in the first place.

The Governor of North Carolina made it perfectly clear that secession for North Carolina was no more than a recognition of the reality of geography. Put the land, the terrain, and people of NC where VA is, and they do not secede. This was more obvious when a delegation from Governor Vance told the approaching Sherman that they would like to reverse their state's secession.
 
Well Kentucky and Missouri did stay in the Union. The other states simply would not happen. The Western NC and Eastern TN areas were Unionist, but not enough of the population to prevent the state legislatures passing ordinances of secession.
 
The Governor of North Carolina made it perfectly clear that secession for North Carolina was no more than a recognition of the reality of geography. Put the land, the terrain, and people of NC where VA is, and they do not secede. This was more obvious when a delegation from Governor Vance told the approaching Sherman that they would like to reverse their state's secession.

Pretty much. Virginia's secession prior to North Carolina made it de facto fated to join the Confederacy. I think the vote itself was decided by a margine of about 5.6% or so. So, if Virginia doesn't secede as early, North Carolina may stay out, which might keep Tennessee out as well.

Well, that, or somehow the Unionist sentiment in NC is just a bit stronger... Who knows? An NC and TN that stay out of the beginning of the war would likely find themselves invaded by the South to establish groundlines between Virginia and the Deep South in an alternate version of the Kentucky campaign. But, the odds of that happening are astronomically low.
 
Pretty much. Virginia's secession prior to North Carolina made it de facto fated to join the Confederacy. I think the vote itself was decided by a margin of about 5.6% or so. So, if Virginia doesn't secede as early, North Carolina may stay out, which might keep Tennessee out as well.

Well, that, or somehow the Unionist sentiment in NC is just a bit stronger... Who knows? An NC and TN that stay out of the beginning of the war would likely find themselves invaded by the South to establish groundlines between Virginia and the Deep South in an alternate version of the Kentucky campaign. But, the odds of that happening are astronomically low.

All the $$$ and most of the people in TN & NC lived outside the Appalachian Mountains, which is where the true Anti-Confederate sentiments lay. It would be like the Rochester/Buffalo area of trying to control the destiny of the entire state of New York.
 
All the $$$ and most of the people in TN & NC lived outside the Appalachian Mountains, which is where the true Anti-Confederate sentiments lay. It would be like the Rochester/Buffalo area of trying to control the destiny of the entire state of New York.

True, but the planters (as far as I remember) lived near the coast; the central Piedmont was heavily divided.

The percentage that voted to remain in the Union was in the high 40s (I think it was 47.2%, but I may be misremembering). That is certainly reflective of an overall split populace, same as in Tennessee.
 
True, but the planters (as far as I remember) lived near the coast; the central Piedmont was heavily divided.

The percentage that voted to remain in the Union was in the high 40s (I think it was 47.2%, but I may be misremembering). That is certainly reflective of an overall split populace, same as in Tennessee.

I can certainly agree to NC being slightly split. I disagree with you more in the matter of TN. But here's the thing: By themselves, Southern Unionists, even in regions where they were the majority, (1) were unwilling to take up arms, to KILL, their Confederate neighbors. Confederates, OTOH, were under no such compunctions. Particularly after Fort Sumter. Doubly so after First Bull Run.

1) The Far Eastern third of TN, and somewhat less so the far reaches of Western NC, were willing to "join up" with the Union cause, but only when Union troops reached those areas and were in a position to give support. The Kingdom of Jones probably would have not amounted to much had the Confederate authorities not responded to their existence with such brutality. (2) And the circumstances of the response of the Confederate Texan authorities to the West Texas Germans was just insane.

2) Giving the Jonesians the choice of "fight or die".
 
I don't think the Union will allow anyone to stay neutral. After all, that's still tantamount to treason.
Arguably, yes. Also, practically, may well be ignorable.

Is it better to keep the Upper South in the Union (neutral), or to force them into the Confederacy? That's a very tricky question.

If some alternate President/government was willing to allow any state to be 'neutral' (for certain definitions of the word), and if several took up the offer, it would be a very interesting war.

Clearly, the Union can't impose conscription in NY and PA, if they're not doing it in VA and KY. Or it would, at least, be horrendously difficult.

Also, if you can't march through Virginia to get to SC, the invasion of the South is going to be really tricky, involving amphibious assaults and the like.

On the one hand, your alt-CSA is much, much weaker and smaller; on the other, the Union is weaker, too, despite being larger. AND it's harder for the Union to attack.

So... I'm GUESSING this would end up being a shorter war, but I rather think it could go a couple of different ways.

This is a very interesting question, and it would be fun if somebody did a TL on it.
 

B-29_Bomber

Banned
In terms of their neutrality, I'd imagine that it might last as long as a year before Washington makes a deal with them that allows Union troops to enter their territory on their way to the Confederacy in return for no conscription.

For what it's worth, I don't think conscription will enter the picture in this shorter war.


I think in this alt you'll hear more comparisons to the Whiskey Rebellion in the 1790s. Once the deal is made the Confederacy lasts a year at most.
 
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