WI: The "Unity" Ticket Succeeds?

Much, much worse. Probably would've lost a few 'safe' states and may've given Obama an even bigger victory than his 2008 one.

The interesting factor would've been the Libertarian Party, with a far more ultra-conservative standing for the Republicans, I can imagine people may switch their votes to the Libertarians.

More importantly, with regards to the Libertarians, are Ron Paul and Rand Paul, IOTL Ron refused to endorse anyone - neither the Libertarians nor the Republicans, whilst Rand supported Romney, much to the distaste of many Libertarians.

ITTL I suspect we might see Ron Paul support Gary Johnson, and Rand Paul may, as Santorum is so conservative, not endorse the Republicans. If Ron gives his support, I can see the vote of the Libertarian Party tipping over 5%.

However, depending on the timing, we could even see Ron Paul stand for the Libertarians as a major protest against the ultra-conservative Republican ticket, in which case anything can happen. The Libertarian vote could be anywhere between 5-15% in such a scenario and I suspect they'd win at least one state, if not more.
 
I doubt Paul would have endorsed outside the GOP. His entire strategy since 2008 has been based on building up support within the GOP (partly by raising issues in public debate to shift the party's overton window, but more so by having his supporters seek positions within local GOP organizations), presumably so Paul can influence the outcomes of future primaries. Endorsing Gary Johnson would have been counterproductive to that effort.
 
I find it hard to see how they'd win, they'd weaken Romney by dragging out the primaries but by the end his money will enable him to stagger to the convention with a majority of delegates. Worst (best?) case scenario you see a brokered convention with Paul as kingmaker, chaos ensuing...
 
Top