WI- The United States joins Central Powers
- Thread starter Noravea
- Start date
With the US gearing up for war, they're going to have a higher GDP than the UK as well. I can't imagine the war going on for very long. The UK and France are stretched very thin already and they won't be able to defend Canada with any ability unless they give up on Europe (Which would be stupid, they're not doing that).
The Pacific will be much more difficult for the Americans. The combined might of the Japanese, French, British, and Russian (maybe) Pacific fleets will be able to trounce the USN, at least in the short run. Someone will probably liberate the Philippines (or at least start it).
But still, it'll immediately evident that the manpower and material of the US completely shifts the balance of power in favor of the Central Powers and the Allies will sue for peace pretty readily before they lose too much more. Canada will be annexed, definitely. In the Pacific, the Philippines will probably be granted independence. Wilson will want Indochina to go independent too. Germany will try to put harsh terms on France and England, but it'll probably be limited to seizing African colonies. Japan might keep their conquests in the Pacific simply because they're so far away.
India could take the opportunity to strike for independence, but the British will not let them go easily. It would be a very bloody affair, spurred on by the need for the British to reclaim some honor. The rest of the British Dominions will be insistent on distancing themselves from the UK into more independent nations.
We did. We won anyway.
Eurofed
Banned
If America joins the CPs, the Entente can't win. Simple as that. The demographic and industrial equation gets far too unbalanced against it. A CP Italy already makes an Entente victory terribly unlikely, but adding a CP America too makes it deep-end ASB.
Moreover, its presence in the CPs ensures that the Alliance may impose an harsh peace to Britain as well (France and Russia go beyond question), since they have the pooled naval resources to blockade the British Isles after France and Russia fall if need be.
As it concerns the peace deal, here's a deal (adapted from the one in this similar CP victory TL):
The Italians get a turf in northern-eastern Africa with Tunisia (which they had set their sights on in 1881 already), eastern Algeria, Chad, southern Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, French and British Somaliland, and Cote d’Ivoire. The Germans establish theirs in the western side of the continent with Western Algeria, Morocco, Spanish Sahara, Gold Coast, Benin, Nigeria, Gabon, Middle Congo, Ubangi-Shari and Northern Rhodesia. Egypt and northern Sudan become a joint Italian-German protectorate because the land that hosted the Suez Canal was deemed of too great strategic importance to be kept by a single power. As for the Suez Canal itself, its shares are seized and reapportioned in equal shares between Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy.
Madagascar and French West Africa as well as Sierra Leone and Gambia are seen as too worthless to be worth the trouble of ownership by the victors.
During the peace negotiations, the Kaiser demands that the Boer republics be recreated, but some Afrikaner representatives come up with an alternative plan: South Africa would sever political ties with Britain and become the Republic of South Africa, a German satellite and an associate of the Alliance. The constitution of South Africa would be reformed so that Afrikaners, the majority among the white population, would get political control. A large united Afrikaner-dominated Republic of South Africa would be a better partner to the Alliance and more powerful and prosperous than the old Boer republics. South Africa keep control of Southern Rhodesia and Bechuanaland, except for a northern strip of the latter that is given to Germany to create a sizable land connection between their colonies in South West Africa and Northern Rhodesia.
South West Asia and China are the scene of another radical territorial redistribution as well. The Germans get Malay, Singapore, Sarawak, Brunei and Vietnam. The remainder (Laos and Cambodia) became an Italian colony and Siam also became an Italian protectorate. America annexes New Caledonia, the French Pacific Islands, and all the British Pacific Islands.
Both as a show of good will, and because India at the moment is too big to be absorbed by any victor power, Britain is allowed to keep India, Burma, and Hong Kong, as well as a sphere of influence in historical Tibet as a bulwark to India. However, British and French concessions in coastal China are stripped and redistributed to the victors according to defined spheres of influence.
Exclusive American hegemony in the Americas is recognised, and all European presence was removed, as the peace conference declares the Monroe Doctrine sacrosanct. Canada, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, Panama, Guadeloupe, Martinique and the British West Indies are annexed into the US as territories. The USA announces a project to expand the Panama Canal and to build a second transoceanic canal in Nicaragua, and the Conference recognised US ownership of both canals. The Dominican Republic also becomes a US territory when political instability and bankruptcy leads to a US intervention.
In Western Europe, Italy annexes Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Gibraltar, Malta, and the Riviera (including Toulon) to satisfy its long-standing irredentist claims against France and to secure its control of the Mediterranean. The Alpine border in the tract between Savoy and the Riviera is moved west to secure control of the mountain watershed for Italy. Germany annexes Luxemburg and Lorraine, (including the iron ore and coal rich Briey-Longwy area), The new border between Germany and France was placed on the Maas river.
The powers discuss what to do with Belgium. WWI has demonstrated that Belgium is not that much effective as a neutral buffer state, and without that, the very existence of this artificial, bi-national Kingdom was questionable. The Dutch put forth claims, and it is decided to dust off old 19th century plans about the partitioning of Belgium. The Netherlands annex Flanders (including Bruxelles) and Dunkirk. Germany annexes all Belgian territory east of the river Maas. This leaves Belgium with Francophone western Wallonia, which is maintained as a separate buffer state with King Albert I at the head and expanded with the annexation of the French region of Nord-Pas de Calais. Belgium is forbidden to enter any political-economic union or military alliance with France without the assent of the Allied powers.
Apart from the loss of territories in the mainland, and colonies in Africa, America, and Asia, there are also other punitive measures in store for France and Britain to appease the revenge urges of the victors. France surely suffers the worst. War reparations equivalent to some 80 billion GM are imposed on them to cripple them. Their army is limited to 125.000 professional soldiers and officers, conscription is forbidden, and the French aren’t allowed to posses heavy artillery, chemical weapons and an air force. Furthermore, a demilitarized zone of 100 km was established in French territory on the borders with Germany and Italy, and France’s major rivers (mainly the Seine and the Rhone) are internationalized and patrolled by German and Italian patrol vessels. The French navy is forced to accept a maximum tonnage of 175.000 tons which equals about two battlecruisers, a dozen or so light cruisers and a flotilla of destroyers.
Britain also has to undergo humiliating punitive measures such as accepting a 2:1 ratio in capital ships with the Germans, Americans, and Italians, as well as a maximum calibre of 13.5 inches (about 34 cm) in their battleships and a maximum weight of 30.000 tons with a mean load.
Moreover, its presence in the CPs ensures that the Alliance may impose an harsh peace to Britain as well (France and Russia go beyond question), since they have the pooled naval resources to blockade the British Isles after France and Russia fall if need be.
As it concerns the peace deal, here's a deal (adapted from the one in this similar CP victory TL):
The Italians get a turf in northern-eastern Africa with Tunisia (which they had set their sights on in 1881 already), eastern Algeria, Chad, southern Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, French and British Somaliland, and Cote d’Ivoire. The Germans establish theirs in the western side of the continent with Western Algeria, Morocco, Spanish Sahara, Gold Coast, Benin, Nigeria, Gabon, Middle Congo, Ubangi-Shari and Northern Rhodesia. Egypt and northern Sudan become a joint Italian-German protectorate because the land that hosted the Suez Canal was deemed of too great strategic importance to be kept by a single power. As for the Suez Canal itself, its shares are seized and reapportioned in equal shares between Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy.
Madagascar and French West Africa as well as Sierra Leone and Gambia are seen as too worthless to be worth the trouble of ownership by the victors.
During the peace negotiations, the Kaiser demands that the Boer republics be recreated, but some Afrikaner representatives come up with an alternative plan: South Africa would sever political ties with Britain and become the Republic of South Africa, a German satellite and an associate of the Alliance. The constitution of South Africa would be reformed so that Afrikaners, the majority among the white population, would get political control. A large united Afrikaner-dominated Republic of South Africa would be a better partner to the Alliance and more powerful and prosperous than the old Boer republics. South Africa keep control of Southern Rhodesia and Bechuanaland, except for a northern strip of the latter that is given to Germany to create a sizable land connection between their colonies in South West Africa and Northern Rhodesia.
South West Asia and China are the scene of another radical territorial redistribution as well. The Germans get Malay, Singapore, Sarawak, Brunei and Vietnam. The remainder (Laos and Cambodia) became an Italian colony and Siam also became an Italian protectorate. America annexes New Caledonia, the French Pacific Islands, and all the British Pacific Islands.
Both as a show of good will, and because India at the moment is too big to be absorbed by any victor power, Britain is allowed to keep India, Burma, and Hong Kong, as well as a sphere of influence in historical Tibet as a bulwark to India. However, British and French concessions in coastal China are stripped and redistributed to the victors according to defined spheres of influence.
Exclusive American hegemony in the Americas is recognised, and all European presence was removed, as the peace conference declares the Monroe Doctrine sacrosanct. Canada, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, Panama, Guadeloupe, Martinique and the British West Indies are annexed into the US as territories. The USA announces a project to expand the Panama Canal and to build a second transoceanic canal in Nicaragua, and the Conference recognised US ownership of both canals. The Dominican Republic also becomes a US territory when political instability and bankruptcy leads to a US intervention.
In Western Europe, Italy annexes Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Gibraltar, Malta, and the Riviera (including Toulon) to satisfy its long-standing irredentist claims against France and to secure its control of the Mediterranean. The Alpine border in the tract between Savoy and the Riviera is moved west to secure control of the mountain watershed for Italy. Germany annexes Luxemburg and Lorraine, (including the iron ore and coal rich Briey-Longwy area), The new border between Germany and France was placed on the Maas river.
The powers discuss what to do with Belgium. WWI has demonstrated that Belgium is not that much effective as a neutral buffer state, and without that, the very existence of this artificial, bi-national Kingdom was questionable. The Dutch put forth claims, and it is decided to dust off old 19th century plans about the partitioning of Belgium. The Netherlands annex Flanders (including Bruxelles) and Dunkirk. Germany annexes all Belgian territory east of the river Maas. This leaves Belgium with Francophone western Wallonia, which is maintained as a separate buffer state with King Albert I at the head and expanded with the annexation of the French region of Nord-Pas de Calais. Belgium is forbidden to enter any political-economic union or military alliance with France without the assent of the Allied powers.
Apart from the loss of territories in the mainland, and colonies in Africa, America, and Asia, there are also other punitive measures in store for France and Britain to appease the revenge urges of the victors. France surely suffers the worst. War reparations equivalent to some 80 billion GM are imposed on them to cripple them. Their army is limited to 125.000 professional soldiers and officers, conscription is forbidden, and the French aren’t allowed to posses heavy artillery, chemical weapons and an air force. Furthermore, a demilitarized zone of 100 km was established in French territory on the borders with Germany and Italy, and France’s major rivers (mainly the Seine and the Rhone) are internationalized and patrolled by German and Italian patrol vessels. The French navy is forced to accept a maximum tonnage of 175.000 tons which equals about two battlecruisers, a dozen or so light cruisers and a flotilla of destroyers.
Britain also has to undergo humiliating punitive measures such as accepting a 2:1 ratio in capital ships with the Germans, Americans, and Italians, as well as a maximum calibre of 13.5 inches (about 34 cm) in their battleships and a maximum weight of 30.000 tons with a mean load.
I could see Austria collapsing, but why would the Ottomans collapse? It was dismembered by the British after WWI, it didn't fall apart of it's own accord.
Eurofed
Banned
Indeed. But there is no plausible reason that these CPs ought to be any more lenient than OTL's Entente. France especially, it's going to be seen like the recidivist bully of Europe, which unleashed three aggressive wars on Europe in a century (Napoleon, 1870, and WWI), so it's not really going to get any mercy. And Britain sure didn't won much sympathy with its civilian-starving blockades.
And another lot of useful natural resources and industry. Moreover, after a war with the British Empire, no way America is going to allow a potentially hostile Anglophile independent Canada on its northern border. On a stretch, if Canada throws Britain to the wolves and surrenders quickly, Washington might allow Ottawa to have a Puerto Rico-like confederal status.
Forgive me if I didn't make myself clear when I said that the UK & her emipre would defeat the US. What I meant was that they would not necessarially occupy the country, but force a settlement. At the beginning of WWI, the US had a standing army of something like 100,000 men spread all over the country. You just need to defeat that before it grows and you force peace. You don't occupy America - that is just silly. Simply force them out of the war quickly and go back to Germany.
The Ottomans were already in collapse prior to the war with the loss of N. Africa in the 1700's and 1800's. Many minorities live in the Ottoman Empire and like Austria, would probably collapse a decade later than it actually did.
Also, would there be a possibility of a Hitler rising to power scenario. Maybe he overthrows the Monarchy when the Depression starts and Germany, already in control of Mainland Europe, World War II would be avoided, any ideas with that.
Also, can someone tell me what ASB means.
Germany will lose all of his colonies (I think Germany is masculine, right?) in Africa if the Allies merely sue for peace. If the Allies want unconditional surrender as what the Allies did to Japan and Germany, they may be able to get those colonies. Otherwise, Germany is fcked.
And how is US industrial capacity in terms of Naval production. If it is anything like WWII, the Japanese, British, Russian, and French fleets combined would be headed towards Bikini Bottom.
Eurofed
Banned
Not going to happen with America and Italy in the Alliance. They have the resources to bring all the Entente powers on their knees to sign a pace of their choice without too much effort if need be. In this sense, no way the Allies are going to settle with Britain for anything less than conceding all its American, African, and Pacific colonies to the Allies, much less returning them their rightful stuff. They shall win the war well before exhaustion would move them to consider any lenient compromise peace.
Russia shall rush to sign a Brest-Litovsk peace in a last-ditch attempt to avoid revolution, or soon after that. France shall soon after that be swamped by the full amount of Austro-Italo-German manpower. With Britain the lone holdout (Japan most likely switches sides after it sees Russia and France crush and burn), the Allies have the pooled navies (American, German, Italian, Austrian, Ottoman, plus captured French and Russian ones) to blockade the British Isles into starvation and surrender.
Not to mention the fact that the Anglo-French shall already have serious problems keeping the Atlantic against the USN and the HSF, and the Mediterranean against the RM, the A-H, and the Ottomans. The Russians are bottled and cannot help them to do either. Talk about spreading thin.
seeeeeriooouuusss ASB!
But, if it so happened that the US joined the Central Powers for whatever reason, I think an American invasion of Canada is pretty likely, as well as Jamaica and other islands in the Caribbean. Though I highly doubt that the US would want to occupy or could occupy all of Canada. It is the second largest nation on earth, after all, and very pro-UK.
I live in Washington State and have often thought that Vancouver Island would have a nice feng sheui quality as the Northwestern part of our state. So maybe the US gains some parts of Canada for their troubles, such as Vancouver Island, PEI or maybe the island portion of Newfoundland. I would Imagine Quebec could get some sort of independance (a la Turtledove in the big series of his).
But mostly I think it would tip the balance in Western Europe in the exact opposite way it did IOTL. US troops would get to W Europe (though the RN is very powerful, but the USN could protect convoys, especially with some U-Boote riding shotgun). Then they would provide the punch in the CP offensives. Brest-Litovsk still happens and the Germans get E. Europe, possibly fenegeling Ukranian independance, but most importantly send troops to the West. Along with the Amis this causes a French collapse.
Realistically, this is the end. The BEF heads back to England not wanting to fight on their own. They can negotiate a "status quo, ante bellum" with all the CP. France gets screwed, they lose several colonies in Africa. I'm thinking Madagascar, Mozambique, IC, Gabon to Germany; Guyana, Martinique, most of French Polynesia to the US. I agree that the US is not into land grab, but would want to be compensated for its troubles.
The Eastern 1/3 of Belgium, along with Luxembourg would be annexed to Germany. Germany gets the Belgian Congo, and tries do do something like its Mittelafrika plans. The rest of Belgium is possibly divided into Walloon and Flanders and maybe annexed by France and the Netherlands, respectively. But rarely do losing nations gain new territory. France pays some reparations. Britain and Russia pay none.
Europe is devastated. Germany might be able to get back on its feet soon, but the real winner would be the US. Britain has been humbled and is a little ticked by its rowdy former colony. France is pissed, but is in such chaos they can barely hold a nation together.
The stage would be easily set for WWII, possibly with a socialist/commie revolution in France, then alliance with the USSR.
But getting the US in the CP is pretty ASB....
But, if it so happened that the US joined the Central Powers for whatever reason, I think an American invasion of Canada is pretty likely, as well as Jamaica and other islands in the Caribbean. Though I highly doubt that the US would want to occupy or could occupy all of Canada. It is the second largest nation on earth, after all, and very pro-UK.
I live in Washington State and have often thought that Vancouver Island would have a nice feng sheui quality as the Northwestern part of our state. So maybe the US gains some parts of Canada for their troubles, such as Vancouver Island, PEI or maybe the island portion of Newfoundland. I would Imagine Quebec could get some sort of independance (a la Turtledove in the big series of his).
But mostly I think it would tip the balance in Western Europe in the exact opposite way it did IOTL. US troops would get to W Europe (though the RN is very powerful, but the USN could protect convoys, especially with some U-Boote riding shotgun). Then they would provide the punch in the CP offensives. Brest-Litovsk still happens and the Germans get E. Europe, possibly fenegeling Ukranian independance, but most importantly send troops to the West. Along with the Amis this causes a French collapse.
Realistically, this is the end. The BEF heads back to England not wanting to fight on their own. They can negotiate a "status quo, ante bellum" with all the CP. France gets screwed, they lose several colonies in Africa. I'm thinking Madagascar, Mozambique, IC, Gabon to Germany; Guyana, Martinique, most of French Polynesia to the US. I agree that the US is not into land grab, but would want to be compensated for its troubles.
The Eastern 1/3 of Belgium, along with Luxembourg would be annexed to Germany. Germany gets the Belgian Congo, and tries do do something like its Mittelafrika plans. The rest of Belgium is possibly divided into Walloon and Flanders and maybe annexed by France and the Netherlands, respectively. But rarely do losing nations gain new territory. France pays some reparations. Britain and Russia pay none.
Europe is devastated. Germany might be able to get back on its feet soon, but the real winner would be the US. Britain has been humbled and is a little ticked by its rowdy former colony. France is pissed, but is in such chaos they can barely hold a nation together.
The stage would be easily set for WWII, possibly with a socialist/commie revolution in France, then alliance with the USSR.
But getting the US in the CP is pretty ASB....
Germany would technically be neuter. "Deutschland" ending in "das" Land or "das deutsche Reich"
So you did read my TL
. Anyway in my TL, The Twin Eagles and the Lion, we had a CP block of Russia, Italy and Germany emerge. France descended into a rightwing authoritarian junta under George Ernest Boulanger. To gain more allies he supported the Legitimist claim to the throne of France; he was a monarchist anyway. It happens to be so that the Legitimists also hold the claim on the Spanish throne and in a Fourth Carlist War, with French assistance, they unite France and Spain into personal union.
As per OTL the Spanish-American war erupts in 1898, but this time, however, Spain has allies. France and Austria-Hungary declare war and defeat the US. They shell the eastern seaboard and even land a corps-sized force in Florida although they are dislodged. These defeats lead to a curtailing of the Monroe doctrine and $3 billion in war reparations. Britain tentatively supports the French against the Russo-German-Italian Triple Alliance which favours US interests via the large immigrant communities there. Alliance sponsored volunteer legions are created and a shift in commercial patterns takes place as the TA loans America money and sells them weapons for their army. Hereby the stage is set for Franco-American antagonism and the US eventually breaking isolationism in favour of TTL's Central Powers.
With the overall superiority of the Grand Fleet, I'm unclear as to the motivation of the British navy to adopt unrestricted submarine warfare. Indeed, IOTL this ploy was adopted by a rather desperate Imperial German navy to disrupt Allied merchant shipping rather than as a strategy to wrest control of the Atlantic from the British navy. Thus, the entire premise of this proposition is, shall we say, rather shaky.
Moreover, apart from the (admittedly sizable!) minorities of Irish-Americans and the more vociferous German-American community, sympathy favoring the Central Powers was a decided minority position in the US at the time (I'll concede H. L. Mencken's columns in the Baltimore Sun--a city where ~25% of the population spoke German at the time). Therefore, a seismic shift in public opinion would have been required to encourage/coerce Congress to vote to join the Central Powers--which, I rather suspect, would have been squelched by the real movers and shakers at the time, such as Henry Cabot Lodge and Theodore Roosevelt.
Sorry, but the entire premise seems a bit of a stretch.
Moreover, apart from the (admittedly sizable!) minorities of Irish-Americans and the more vociferous German-American community, sympathy favoring the Central Powers was a decided minority position in the US at the time (I'll concede H. L. Mencken's columns in the Baltimore Sun--a city where ~25% of the population spoke German at the time). Therefore, a seismic shift in public opinion would have been required to encourage/coerce Congress to vote to join the Central Powers--which, I rather suspect, would have been squelched by the real movers and shakers at the time, such as Henry Cabot Lodge and Theodore Roosevelt.
Sorry, but the entire premise seems a bit of a stretch.
Alex Richards
Donor
How many times do I have to say: Germany never wanted any of Belgium. Belgian Congo maybe, but the invasion of Belgium was a way to move around the defensive line of forts the French had along the border, not an attempt at expansion.
cbrunish
Banned
While the US joining the CP is not totally absurd, with Wilson as President it would be very hard. Wilson was pro-british, pro-democracy. While Russia was an autocracy, UK and France were both democracies (UK was a constitutional monarchy). But the US did have a large German base (and Irish, which was usually anti-britain), which could have pushed the US onto the side of Germany if a different president was in power.
But to assume that the RN would defeat the USN is a bit premature. At the time the US had a pretty good sized navy. Britain did compete with the US in naval size. But the difference between the US and Germany is that the USN did not pose as much of a threat to Britain as the German Navy.
But to assume that the RN would defeat the USN is a bit premature. At the time the US had a pretty good sized navy. Britain did compete with the US in naval size. But the difference between the US and Germany is that the USN did not pose as much of a threat to Britain as the German Navy.
A Central Powers victory and British defeat in the Great War as outlined in the scenario by Nickcvader would have tremendous repercussions on British politics. The reputation of Lloyd George would be utterly destroyed, as would those of other politicians considered responsible for the British defeat. I would guess that there would be increased support for the anti-war wings of the Labour and Liberal Parties and for political parties to the left of Labour and the right of the Conservatives.
With the POD being April 1917 when the coalition headed by Lloyd George was in power in Britain, presumably it would still be in power when Britain signs the ceasefire with the Central Powers in October 1918. Would the coalition continue after the war as it did in OTL?
In the general election of November or December 1918 the Lloyd George Liberals would be slaughtered, while the Conservatives would also do badly. If the Labour ministers left the coalition before October 1918 at the very latest, and the Labour Party came out against the war, it would do well in the general election.
Any ideas as to which party or parties would form the government after the general election and who would be Prime Minister? One possibility is that if Lord Lansdowne writes his letter as in OTL advocating a negotiated peace with the Central Powers, and follows it up again in 1918, he could emerge as the most widely accepted anti-war leader in Parliament and the country. With great reluctance he agrees to become Prime Minister, for not more than five years, of a government of National Reconstruction comprising anti-war politicians of all parties. I don't think that him being a member of the House of Lords would stop him becoming Prime Minister.
With the POD being April 1917 when the coalition headed by Lloyd George was in power in Britain, presumably it would still be in power when Britain signs the ceasefire with the Central Powers in October 1918. Would the coalition continue after the war as it did in OTL?
In the general election of November or December 1918 the Lloyd George Liberals would be slaughtered, while the Conservatives would also do badly. If the Labour ministers left the coalition before October 1918 at the very latest, and the Labour Party came out against the war, it would do well in the general election.
Any ideas as to which party or parties would form the government after the general election and who would be Prime Minister? One possibility is that if Lord Lansdowne writes his letter as in OTL advocating a negotiated peace with the Central Powers, and follows it up again in 1918, he could emerge as the most widely accepted anti-war leader in Parliament and the country. With great reluctance he agrees to become Prime Minister, for not more than five years, of a government of National Reconstruction comprising anti-war politicians of all parties. I don't think that him being a member of the House of Lords would stop him becoming Prime Minister.