I think the premise for this is pretty simple, though the ramification are kind of a whole other story.
For a POD, let's say that either the Soviet-Afghan War (which I'll call the SA war from now on) ends either quickly enough for the US to not arm the Mujahideen as much as they did OTL or even prevents them from arming altogether.
Another possible POD is that Operation Cyclone just doesn't happen; the United States doesn't arm Mujahideen rebels.
Would there still be an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, an Afghan Civil War, and possibly even 9/11?