WI: The United Duchies of Jülich-Kleve-Berg

OTL after the death of Wilhelm der Reiche they sort of went to custard (yes, I know his son, Johann Wilhelm succeeded him, but he doesn't seem to have been overly effective at ruling). Now Wilhelm had contracted two (and planned for a third) very advantageous matches for himself, yet after his death, the wealth he had accrued for the duchy was scattered to the four winds by the War of the Julich Succession between Protestant Brandenburg and Catholic Pfalz-Neuberg.

OTL, Wilhelm managed a match with Jeanne, Queen of Navarre, and after that was annulled, he married an Austrian archduchess. He'd married his one sister off to the king of England (despite the marriage later being annulled) and hoped for a match with the king of England's daughter, Mary Tudor. Hence my questions of what if:

a) Wilhelm had stayed married to Jeanne and they'd had kids? PU with Navarre could be interesting for the United Duchies (although I see one always being sacrificed for the other)
b) Wilhelm had managed to pull off the double marriage between himself and Mary Tudor and his sister and Henry VIII? (handwavium necessary perhaps, but I think a de la Marck England could be fun, especially with England having territory in Europe again, although I foresee England and the United Duchies ending up in a similar situation to a PU with Navarre in a)).
c) His son by Marie of Austria, Karl Friedrich - reportedly the brighter and better of the two boys, survives.

How does Europe fare with there being no Succession War in the 1610s to act as a sort of dress-rehearsal for the 30YW (not my words, and not my opinion, I just read the one writer that called it that)? And how do the United Duchies move into the future?
 
This is a very interesting idea! Especially C) speaks of a lot of possibilities, due to its central location. The Succession War as a precursor to the 30YW isn't an obscure idea, that's how I see it too (along with the Cologne war).

It all depends on the religion of the ruler of the United Duchies. Wilhem V managed to act as a balance between the Protestant and Catholic forces, being himself a humanist. This was a tough act to follow, and it's not inconceivable that Karl Friedrich would have to pick a side at one point. This could cause massive shifts in power depending on whether or not he'd align with the Calvinists, the Catholics or the Lutherans. All of those are possible, for a variety of reasons.
 
I am fairly certain they will get involved in the Dutch war of independence somehow. If they turn protestant I suspect they could end up more or less as a Dutch ally or even a Dutch puppet.
 
IOTL Karl Friedrich died during pilgrimate to Rome, so I suppouse he would side with Catholics if he survived.
It was less a pilgrimage than a sort of Grand Tour of Italy to engage with the Classics (his father was a strong proponent of the Northern Renaissance after all), although the Catohlic Church did try and milk it for whatever political influence it was worth (before and after Karl Friedrich died). The United Duchies were that important, even Spain and Ernest of Bavaria (future Elector of Cologne) had their hand in influence the court after the death of Karl Friedrich, when Wilhelm V was ailing.

It's not unlikely he'd have leaned in that direction for many reasons (not the least of which the fact that his mother was a Habsburg), but given the long-standing opposition to 'Burgundian' encroachment and the strong tradition of religious tolerance (including Calvinism and Lutheranism) at court maybe it could've gone the other way. The death of Karl Friedrich really was a turning point, not having that happen opens up a lot of possibilities.
 
I am fairly certain they will get involved in the Dutch war of independence somehow. If they turn protestant I suspect they could end up more or less as a Dutch ally or even a Dutch puppet.

Could they maybe even use their influence in the Low Countries plus their hot-cold relationship with the emperor as well as their Habsburg descent later, as a way of ending up as the Dutch ruling family ipv the Nassaus?

It was less a pilgrimage than a sort of Grand Tour of Italy to engage with the Classics (his father was a strong proponent of the Northern Renaissance after all), although the Catohlic Church did try and milk it for whatever political influence it was worth (before and after Karl Friedrich died). The United Duchies were that important, even Spain and Ernest of Bavaria (future Elector of Cologne) had their hand in influence the court after the death of Karl Friedrich, when Wilhelm V was ailing.

It's not unlikely he'd have leaned in that direction for many reasons (not the least of which the fact that his mother was a Habsburg), but given the long-standing opposition to 'Burgundian' encroachment and the strong tradition of religious tolerance (including Calvinism and Lutheranism) at court maybe it could've gone the other way. The death of Karl Friedrich really was a turning point, not having that happen opens up a lot of possibilities.

Could it have ended up that the United Duchies are a sort of Poland-Lithuania in Germany (Catholic royal family, but tolerance for other religions)? And how would the duchies jumping one way or the other have affected that side's power/influence in Europe? And secondly, without the dress rehearsal that was the Succession War to follow Johann Wilhelm's death, might an alt-30YW erupt earlier?
 
Could they maybe even use their influence in the Low Countries plus their hot-cold relationship with the emperor as well as their Habsburg descent later, as a way of ending up as the Dutch ruling family ipv the Nassaus?
(...)

No and yes. Perhaps the duke of Jülich-Kleve-Berg ends up as the new Sovereign Lord of the Netherlands elected by the Estates General, like OTL Matthias of Austria, François of Anjou and the Earl of Leicester? It won't change the influential position the house of Nassau had as one of the most prominent noble houses in the Low Countries at this point. Orange-Nassau could still get or maintain the position of Stadtholder of Holland, Zeeland and Utrecht. Some of the Stadtholderates of the house of Nassau (includig other branches) might be less sure, like Gelre, which could very well go to Jülich-Kleve-Berg ITTL. Or should I instead write Gulik-Kleef-Berg?
 
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Could they maybe even use their influence in the Low Countries plus their hot-cold relationship with the emperor as well as their Habsburg descent later, as a way of ending up as the Dutch ruling family ipv the Nassaus?
Wilhelm V met with the initial leaders of the revolt (Horne, Egmont, Orange) in '65 but after the revolution broke out in earnest Wilhelm V stepped back a bit, apparently due to his own failing (mental) health and the fear of getting his lands embroiled in the conflict. At least, that's what I think the ADB claims. Personally I think he expected Emperor Maximilian II to act (they both favoured a conciliatory policy), and when he realised that wasn't going to happen it was already to late.

It is definitely an interesting angle. In the TL I've been working on for a while Johann Wilhelm has a daughter who ends up marrying the ATL child of Maurice of Orange, after Adolf von Neuenahr manages to stage a coup. Needless to say that's more than a few logical leaps removed from being a satisfying, logical story, and I still have to work on it. But Kleve taking an active role in the Netherlands is far from implausible, especially given how Wilhelm V was Duke of Gelre at one point.
 
Wilhelm V met with the initial leaders of the revolt (Horne, Egmont, Orange) in '65 but after the revolution broke out in earnest Wilhelm V stepped back a bit, apparently due to his own failing (mental) health and the fear of getting his lands embroiled in the conflict. At least, that's what I think the ADB claims. Personally I think he expected Emperor Maximilian II to act (they both favoured a conciliatory policy), and when he realised that wasn't going to happen it was already to late.

It is definitely an interesting angle. In the TL I've been working on for a while Johann Wilhelm has a daughter who ends up marrying the ATL child of Maurice of Orange, after Adolf von Neuenahr manages to stage a coup. Needless to say that's more than a few logical leaps removed from being a satisfying, logical story, and I still have to work on it. But Kleve taking an active role in the Netherlands is far from implausible, especially given how Wilhelm V was Duke of Gelre at one point.

Ugh, the wait and see approach in political history - how often must some people look back and see what happened and kick themselves for not doing something.

That being said, I'd read a TL with that premise. Who did you have in mind for marrying Maurits? AIUI he didn't marry OTL because of the very ambiguous status of his rule (traitor to the king) put off the Protestant-friendly Catholics and the fact that the position was regarded as elective put off the remaining Protestants (similarly to Erik XIV of Sweden, except Sweden was a kingdom and Maurits was the royal head of an oligarchic state in a world drifting towards absolutism). Although I know he threatened Frederik Hendrik with marrying Margarethe van Mechelen or at legitimizing his bastards by her unless Frederik married and produced heirs. Now that would make for an equally interesting TL.
 
Could they maybe even use their influence in the Low Countries plus their hot-cold relationship with the emperor as well as their Habsburg descent later, as a way of ending up as the Dutch ruling family ipv the Nassaus?
Replace? Probably not. Not this late in the game. But if they supported the Dutch revolt (and became protestant obviously), they could end up in a position of power, maybe become stadholder of one or two of the less important provinces (kinda like the Frisian stadholders, maybe they would be the stadholders of Gelre and Overijssel). If they don't get involved into the Dutch revolt, that won't happen. Mind you the Dutch Repubic was too rich, strong and powerful to ignore. So I have no doubt that they will get involved somehow. Several German nobles became influential in the Dutch Republic and Julich-Cleve-Berg would be important to the Dutch. For example they could marry into either branch of the house of Orange-Nassau. J-C-B vould never be as strong as the Dutch and will play second fiddle to them , but if they play their cards right, they could become influential in the Dutch republic.
 
That being said, I'd read a TL with that premise. Who did you have in mind for marrying Maurits? AIUI he didn't marry OTL because of the very ambiguous status of his rule (traitor to the king) put off the Protestant-friendly Catholics and the fact that the position was regarded as elective put off the remaining Protestants (similarly to Erik XIV of Sweden, except Sweden was a kingdom and Maurits was the royal head of an oligarchic state in a world drifting towards absolutism).
I have to dig up my notes for that (all this talk really makes me want to revisit it). Maurits' problem was also that he loved sleeping around too much to settle down, and since he had a brother he didn't have to worry about sustaining his family. I 'solved' that by keeping William the Silent alive and 'preventing' Frederik Hendrik from being born (desperate times, desperate measures). Being a Calvinist was also probably a bigger issue than the elective position of his stadtholterate; whatever else he was still a Count of Nassau and after his elder half-brother died, a Prince.

The choice between Calvinism and Lutheranism did matter a whole lot in the 16th and 17th centuries, even if a few other Princes chose it as well (though in the case of Brandenburg and the Palatinate it didn't stick). There wasn't a lot of inter-Protestant friendship, and choosing Calvinism over another faith closed off a lot of alliances. Gebhard of Waldburg probably lost the Sewer War because he chose Calvinism and thus couldn't find any foreign sponsors (although he did it for love, so it's understandable). Also, there was the delicate fact that the Peace of Augsburg didn't allow for Calvinist rulers, which made the situation very precarious. That's why I think the Sewer war is a much closer analogue of the proto-30YW; a Bishop-elector turning Calvinist (and the post-war enforcement of eius religio) did a lot more to damage interfaith relations than the fear that the Emperor might claim the United Duchies, and the resultant War of Jülich Succession.
 
Replace? Probably not. Not this late in the game. But if they supported the Dutch revolt (and became protestant obviously), they could end up in a position of power, maybe become stadholder of one or two of the less important provinces (kinda like the Frisian stadholders, maybe they would be the stadholders of Gelre and Overijssel). If they don't get involved into the Dutch revolt, that won't happen. Mind you the Dutch Repubic was too rich, strong and powerful to ignore. So I have no doubt that they will get involved somehow. Several German nobles became influential in the Dutch Republic and Julich-Cleve-Berg would be important to the Dutch. For example they could marry into either branch of the house of Orange-Nassau. J-C-B vould never be as strong as the Dutch and will play second fiddle to them , but if they play their cards right, they could become influential in the Dutch republic.

Fair enough. Might we see one of William the Silent's daughters marrying Karl Friedrich/Johann Wilhelm/their heirs? Or is that too flirtatious with ASB? I mean, most of the German princes that became influential in the Dutch Republic were Germans who had married Nassovian princesses.

I have to dig up my notes for that (all this talk really makes me want to revisit it). Maurits' problem was also that he loved sleeping around too much to settle down, and since he had a brother he didn't have to worry about sustaining his family. I 'solved' that by keeping William the Silent alive and 'preventing' Frederik Hendrik from being born (desperate times, desperate measures). Being a Calvinist was also probably a bigger issue than the elective position of his stadtholterate; whatever else he was still a Count of Nassau and after his elder half-brother died, a Prince.

The choice between Calvinism and Lutheranism did matter a whole lot in the 16th and 17th centuries, even if a few other Princes chose it as well (though in the case of Brandenburg and the Palatinate it didn't stick). There wasn't a lot of inter-Protestant friendship, and choosing Calvinism over another faith closed off a lot of alliances. Gebhard of Waldburg probably lost the Sewer War because he chose Calvinism and thus couldn't find any foreign sponsors (although he did it for love, so it's understandable). Also, there was the delicate fact that the Peace of Augsburg didn't allow for Calvinist rulers, which made the situation very precarious. That's why I think the Sewer war is a much closer analogue of the proto-30YW; a Bishop-elector turning Calvinist (and the post-war enforcement of eius religio) did a lot more to damage interfaith relations than the fear that the Emperor might claim the United Duchies, and the resultant War of Jülich Succession.

Fair enough. Times like this make one wish that Calvin and Luther could've just been of one mind on the whole bread and wine of communion, rather than one saying 'it is' and the other saying 'it represents' the body and blood of Christ.

That said, Wilhelm V's youngest daughter, Sibylle married the morganatic-born son of Archduke Ferdinand and Philippine Welser but had no children (although the marriage happened in 1601 when she was over 40, so that's kinda self-explanatory) but I've always been partial to her marrying Habsburg oddball Rudolf II. He threatened once or twice to take a Protestant wife (a Wurttemberger princess was considered) but how could the Habsburgs cut him off if he took a cousin from Cleves (who was Protestant-adjacent) to wife? :)
 
Something I'm wondering, I've read that the main reason Anne of Cleves didn't return to Germany after Henry VIII divorced her was because she didn't want to be used as a pawn in her brother's political scheming again. However, her brother still had a spinster sister at home, Amalie. Yet he never forced her into a match, in fact, just the opposite. The family wanted to use her to secure a good alliance with Baden, and offered her as a bride for the margrave's son. But Bernhard (who was closest in age) had been cut off by his family due to his immoral living and it was only his sisters' intercession with his father that saw him restored to his fortunes, and then Wilhelm V stalled, since he feared that Bernhard's lifestyle would prevent him from having kids with Amalie, and when the margrave offered his younger son, Karl, who was born in 1529 (12 years younger than Amalie), Wilhelm refused on the grounds that he would not force his sister to marry a child.

Anne was originally betrothed to the son and heir of the duke of Lorraine, but Henry VIII's ambassadors got there first and Anne married Henry and her erstwhile betrothed married Christina of Denmark. AIUI the usual way that things worked (or at least seemed to work) was that Wilhelm would've attempted to offer Amalie to François of Lorraine, and yet there seems to be no record hereof. Also regarding Amalie, is that Bernhard was refused on the grounds of his lifestyle, but until 1542, he had a still older brother Albrecht (b.1511) who would've likewise been a good match for her. Yet she remained the spinster aunt at the Cleves court. Does anyone know why?

And also, what would be the effects of a PU with either England or Navarre? We've been focused on the Julich War of Succession and the reasons leading up to it etc.
 
I'm really curious the more I think about it, when Wilhelm V was making hints at marrying Mary Tudor, he was sorta already married to the Queen of Navarre. Surely Henry would've used this as a tactic to stall ("first get your house in order and then we'll talk about you marrying my daughter" sort of thing)? And yet it never seems to have come up. But what would the consequences have been if he'd had a daughter by his Navarrese wife and then had the marriage annulled (I'm not sure what the grounds for it were originally, in fact, I'm not sure if he even went to meet his bride, in which case this might be ASB) to marry an English princess? Would Henry stay married to Anne of Cleves? And if he still divorces her, how might this affect his relationships with his daughter/son-/brother-in-law?
 
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