WI : The Umayyad win the Battle of the Nobles 740 / Berber revolt

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

what If the Umayyad won the Battle of the Nobles OTL first big battle and victory for the Berber in the Berber revolt who would result in the first independent Muslim (even if heritic ) state outside of the Calipahte and the the loss of western Maghreb . I chose it over Bagdoura because Umayyad already seemed in a unwinnable position by then and by defeat . Could the Berber revolt have been crushed here ? What are the consequence ? Could the Umayyad hold on Morocco and Algeria ? What are the effect on Al Andalus and the Maghreb ? And how do that affect the Abbasid revolution ? Could the Umayyad hold on longer as Caliph or are they already screwed by then ? Possible other effect ?

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

@John7755 يوحنا

 

[SunKing105]

Abd-ar-Rahman could potentially get killed and not survive the Abbasid revolution, if it still happens. If it doesn't happen, he lives out his days as a minor prince. Either way, we don't have the Emirate of Cordoba. I think the revolt would still happen, because the underlying issues behind it are still there, and the butterflies are hardly going to be so quick to interfere in Persia. But it might have a different message, and different timing. We'd see either a Fihrid or an Abbasid Iberia, and without the distraction of the Berber Revolt, Asturias gets crushed or heavily defeated, and the Reconquista is much slower, if it happens at all.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

I am not versed enough in the history of Northern Africa to speak too deeply on it.

However, it is generally the case that the main issue with the Berber Revolt was less of a morale loss, and hence foundational to Umayyad collapse, but it drained resources and weakened the Umayyad somewhat. The Umayyad were having a general issue maintaining it hold over Mesopotamia and Iran and were faced with frequent rebellions from differing factions, both with political axes to grind and religious issues. Umayyad policy was also hamstrung by the defeats the Umayyad suffered at the hands of the Khazar. Though the Khazar suffered a brief defeat at the hands of the Umayyad, the Umayyad were the true losers in said conflict, symbolizing a form of weakness and drain that the Abbasid revolution would exploit.

 

[Nivek]

what If the Umayyad won the Battle of the Nobles OTL first big battle and victory for the Berber in the Berber revolt who would result in the first independent Muslim (even if heritic ) state outside of the Calipahte and the the loss of western Maghreb . I chose it over Bagdoura because Umayyad already seemed in a unwinnable position by then and by defeat . Could the Berber revolt have been crushed here ? What are the consequence ? Could the Umayyad hold on Morocco and Algeria ? What are the effect on Al Andalus and the Maghreb ? And how do that affect the Abbasid revolution ? Could the Umayyad hold on longer as Caliph or are they already screwed by then ? Possible other effect ?

If Anything Show Ummyad might have to do a change of plans among their tributaries, yeah even some mistake, Ummayd where very pro integration but much of their Jundist did where not. Still maybe some shuflle? sending loyal berber in the region to organize and other moved to the frontlines in europe and Anatolia?.

If anything long term Ummayds would goes back their goal of defeating the ERE and getting new rome.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

I am not versed enough in the history of Northern Africa to speak too deeply on it.

However, it is generally the case that the main issue with the Berber Revolt was less of a morale loss, and hence foundational to Umayyad collapse, but it drained resources and weakened the Umayyad somewhat. The Umayyad were having a general issue maintaining it hold over Mesopotamia and Iran and were faced with frequent rebellions from differing factions, both with political axes to grind and religious issues. Umayyad policy was also hamstrung by the defeats the Umayyad suffered at the hands of the Khazar. Though the Khazar suffered a brief defeat at the hands of the Umayyad, the Umayyad were the true losers in said conflict, symbolizing a form of weakness and drain that the Abbasid revolution would exploit.

So the Umayyad will still have to deal with the Abassid revolt even if they would probably be in a better situation to deal with it without the loss of a Syrian army send in the Maghreb . Could we see a scenario where there an Abbasid Mesopotamia and Iran but the Umayyad holding on Syria in a extended period of time or the two are too close of each other for the division to last ?

A bit out of topic here but what would the good PoD to have the Umayyad being more successful / dominant position in their Khazar war ? I’m guessing a total victory at Ardabil would be great both military and internally but what Pod could create important to the Khazar ? Say rival tribe or big civil war any idea ?

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Also the Umayyad seem to have started they first true tentative of conquest of Sicily they had some succes but had to pull back because of the revolt (the rebel specifically waited the army to go to start the rebellion ) now the army would already started going back before the Pod and the victory probably won’t end completely the revolt they’re probably be a comparing to reader authority in Morocco after that they would probably restart the invasion what would be the effect of a possible conquest or partial conquest of Sicily ? In the Mediterranean power balance and in the Islamic Christian world ?

 

[Nivek]

the Mediterranean power balance and in the Islamic Christian world ?

An Early Sicily would be a humillation for the ERE...they will do it of course...again post Tours is a big blow for Ummayds expansion but they're in prime position to kick back the franks to their side of pyrennes and not loss barshiluna

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

An Early Sicily would be a humillation for the ERE...they will do it of course...again post Tours is a big blow for Ummayds expansion but they're in prime position to kick back the franks to their side of pyrennes and not loss barshiluna

Yep with no separation of the Maghreb for the time being I expect al andalus to do better for the next decade . Now directly after the Pod it will be a story of not losing Narbonne if they could break the siege and hold it for some more decade it will brought extremely precious time to al andalus

 

[Nivek]

Yep with no separation of the Maghreb for the time being I expect al andalus to do better for the next decade . Now directly after the Pod it will be a story of not losing Narbonne if they could break the siege and hold it for some more decade it will brought extremely precious time to al andalus

A Narbonne victory and Avignon too means the Ummayds keep septemania if well done could break the hammer too,that is what they would need for the future and more important, kill a massive benefactor to the moutain kingdom, asturias might be on borrowed time that way

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

I think it could possibly slow down the islamisation of the Berbers, as local actors are less able to indigenise Islam and make it central to their own power because it will always be the source of someone else's power far away who then devolves power. They'd still probably get islamised but possibly only by the 10 or 11th century Islam dominates instead of by the 8th.

 

[Nivek]

@Abd ar-Rahman II something more to add?

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

@Abd ar-Rahman II something more to add?

Nothing really I was interested on the effect that will have on the Umayyad , Al Andalus ( because of the big effect it will have on its development) and the effect on a continued Arab elite rule in the Maghreb if the Umayyad still fall . I agree that the Pod will probably slow down a little the islamisation of the Maghreb but I still see the region being majority Muslim at the end of the 9 th century

 

[Nivek]

Nothing really I was interested on the effect that will have on the Umayyad , Al Andalus ( because of the big effect it will have on its development) and the effect on a continued Arab elite rule in the Maghreb if the Umayyad still fall . I agree that the Pod will probably slow down a little the islamisation of the Maghreb but I still see the region being majority Muslim at the end of the 9 th century

Yeah if Anything would make Ummayd to keep more control on Africa, might means a bigger/western Ummayd Caliphate vs an Eastern Abbasadi if the Abbassdi revolution still happen? if not there a lot of others butterflies too