WI: The U.S. Navy had another carrier or two at the Battle of Midway?

Glenn239 said:
I wouldn't think Fletcher pursues rashly
Not rashly, but more willingly. Nimitz's order was "calculated risk" given the imbalance of decks; with parity, he'd ask for (even expect) more aggressiveness.

As said, tho, it does depend on the reaction to Murphy's message late on. So long as that comes, & Fletcher listens, no worse U.S. outcome.
 
IJN intel

Regarding Butterflies, how many carriers did IJN intel thought the USN could deploy for the defence of Midway?
Given their tendency to claim damaged ships as sunk, they were probably counting only with two. PODs that give the USN four or five carriers possibly also allow the IJN to expect them, and have a completely new plan.
 
Regarding Butterflies, how many carriers did IJN intel thought the USN could deploy for the defence of Midway?
Given their tendency to claim damaged ships as sunk, they were probably counting only with two. PODs that give the USN four or five carriers possibly also allow the IJN to expect them, and have a completely new plan.

Doubtful. The IJN wanted a Decisive Battle - and as far as air assets go, unless you butterfly out Coral Sea, they had nothing left. They sent out the Hosho with obsolete biplanes - that was how far they scraped the barrel.
 

GarethC

Donor
Regarding Butterflies, how many carriers did IJN intel thought the USN could deploy for the defence of Midway?
Given their tendency to claim damaged ships as sunk, they were probably counting only with two. PODs that give the USN four or five carriers possibly also allow the IJN to expect them, and have a completely new plan.
If the carrier is Saratoga coming from the West Coast because the Midway op is delayed by a week, then you can probably allow it to be discounted by the IJN.

Saratoga would operate in division with Yorktown - I think Fitch was still en route to Pearl so it would be Fletcher commanding.

Following Coral Sea, Fletcher would be aiming to get the division's strike aircraft over target at the same time - although that failed with Yorktown, so I'm not sure we'd be more generous to the division. What is slightly more likely is that the Saratoga's planes would stay with Yorktown's of the same types; so the torpedo attack would be of about thirty planes, and might actually get a hit that worked, or, more likely, have several hits observed by survivors as duds.

I don't have any books with me, but IIRC Hiryu was not seen by the OTL SBDs, due to her maneuvering against previous air attacks having taken her away from the other carriers, and so would survive the TTL SBD strikes as well.

If that's the case, though, Yamaguchi's counterstrike will have to get through a couple more escorts and a few more CAP F4Fs. With the escorting A6Ms already engaged by Yorktown's CAP after detection at 1329 hrs, any contribution from Saratoga will be able to try to break up the D3A attacks, which might well mean that Yorktown can avoid the bomb in the uptakes that slowed her to 20 kts.

With Saratoga still undamaged, she can continue to land and refuel the CAP, including the VF-3 planes from Yorktown, and then relaunch them so that when the second strike of Kates is detected as 1540 hrs they are engaged further out by more defenders. With more CAP and more time, and Yorktown not slowed by bomb damage, she escapes with a single torpedo hit, which while serious is not as fatal as the two in OTL. Not all the boilers flood, power to the pumps is maintained, the flooding is controlled.

Saratoga launches her own strike against Hiryu, although the time taken defending against Hiryu's attacks and landing Yorktown's planes means that it goes later than Spruance's strike, and finds Hiryu burning and chooses different targets, damaging Chikuma and springing hull plates on Makigumo with a near-miss.

Fletcher retires east overnight. I-168 never finds Yorktown, and she is repaired fully in time for the Eastern Solomons.
 
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Regarding Butterflies, how many carriers did IJN intel thought the USN could deploy for the defence of Midway?
Given their tendency to claim damaged ships as sunk, they were probably counting only with two. PODs that give the USN four or five carriers possibly also allow the IJN to expect them, and have a completely new plan.

It's in the Nagumo Report, situation of the enemy. 2-3 I think it was, plus a couple 'converts' (ie, escort carriers).
 
Doubtful. The IJN wanted a Decisive Battle - and as far as air assets go, unless you butterfly out Coral Sea, they had nothing left. They sent out the Hosho with obsolete biplanes - that was how far they scraped the barrel.

Hosho had been attached directly to 1st Fleet since before the war began, so it sailing with 1st Fleet in combat ops is not indicative of desperation.
 
. Following Coral Sea, Fletcher would be aiming to get the division's strike aircraft over target at the same time - although that failed with Yorktown, so I'm not sure we'd be more generous to the division.

TF-17 put its strike over KB intact (the only carrier to do so), so if Sara was with Fletcher (or even Hornet), then it's a catastrophy for Nagumo.

I don't have any books with me, but IIRC Hiryu was not seen by the OTL SBDs, due to her maneuvering against previous air attacks having taken her away from the other carriers, and so would survive the TTL SBD strikes as well.

When Yorktown attacked, the dive bomber leader (Leslie) thinking that Yorktown's second SBD squadron was following, instructed it by radio to attack the Hiryu. So Hiryu was in full view and would probably have been destroyed unless by some miracle all of the SBD's attacking her missed.
 
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