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During one of my exams a few months ago, the question of why Taiwan eventually democratised while mainland China avoided democratisation came up. In my closing paragraph to my answer, I speculated on how things might have developed in Taiwan had the Communists been forced to retreat there and establish a state.

So now, I'd like to see if we can flesh it out. Suppose that somehow - ASB, divine intervention, I don't care particularly how - the positions of the KMT and the CCP in 1949 are reversed: the KMT-led Republic of China establishes authority over all of the mainland, while the remainder of the Communist forces are forced to retreat to Taiwan, ending in a stalemate where the CCP is in charge of Taiwan, and the ROC is unable to take the island. Initially, as far as the Taiwanese are concerned, the situation is the same: a Mandarin-speaking, predominantly Han, ruling class has taken control, and inherits the same political and economic situation.

So now the question is what the Communists would make of the situation. I theorised in my exam answer that democratisation and Taiwanisation was accepted by the KMT in Taiwan as much as anything as a necessity, in order to assuage the hostility against the KMT that had built up in the Taiwanese population and to bring them into the KMT fold. I theorised that there were three main factors that allowed for democratisation in Taiwan:
- The existence of a substantial disenfranchised and hostile ethnic Taiwanese population.
- The coherence and organisation of the Tangwai movement.
- The fact that, while strongly authoritarian, the KMT did not have the totalitarian logic of the CCP, and would not view opposition as an existential threat.
- The decreasing threat from the PRC as it opened to outside investment.

What interests me is how the CCP would have dealt with the first of these factors: the Taiwanese population. Would they have been brought into the Communist Party from the start? Would they have been allowed to form their own parties eventually? Would there be a multi-party democracy? Would the Communist Party have taken on a more 'Taiwanese' character, or would it have continued to hold ambitions to retake all of China? Would it proclaim Taiwanese independence?

I'm also interested in how a Communist Taiwan would be treated internationally. Would there be a similar situation to now, where both claim sovereignty over all of China, and only one would be recognised at a time? If so, how long before countries are willing to recognise the CCP state?
How might this smaller Communist presence affect the Cold War in Asia?


(Apologies for the disorganisation of my thoughts)
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