WI: The two Chinas reversed

During one of my exams a few months ago, the question of why Taiwan eventually democratised while mainland China avoided democratisation came up. In my closing paragraph to my answer, I speculated on how things might have developed in Taiwan had the Communists been forced to retreat there and establish a state.

So now, I'd like to see if we can flesh it out. Suppose that somehow - ASB, divine intervention, I don't care particularly how - the positions of the KMT and the CCP in 1949 are reversed: the KMT-led Republic of China establishes authority over all of the mainland, while the remainder of the Communist forces are forced to retreat to Taiwan, ending in a stalemate where the CCP is in charge of Taiwan, and the ROC is unable to take the island. Initially, as far as the Taiwanese are concerned, the situation is the same: a Mandarin-speaking, predominantly Han, ruling class has taken control, and inherits the same political and economic situation.

So now the question is what the Communists would make of the situation. I theorised in my exam answer that democratisation and Taiwanisation was accepted by the KMT in Taiwan as much as anything as a necessity, in order to assuage the hostility against the KMT that had built up in the Taiwanese population and to bring them into the KMT fold. I theorised that there were three main factors that allowed for democratisation in Taiwan:
- The existence of a substantial disenfranchised and hostile ethnic Taiwanese population.
- The coherence and organisation of the Tangwai movement.
- The fact that, while strongly authoritarian, the KMT did not have the totalitarian logic of the CCP, and would not view opposition as an existential threat.
- The decreasing threat from the PRC as it opened to outside investment.

What interests me is how the CCP would have dealt with the first of these factors: the Taiwanese population. Would they have been brought into the Communist Party from the start? Would they have been allowed to form their own parties eventually? Would there be a multi-party democracy? Would the Communist Party have taken on a more 'Taiwanese' character, or would it have continued to hold ambitions to retake all of China? Would it proclaim Taiwanese independence?

I'm also interested in how a Communist Taiwan would be treated internationally. Would there be a similar situation to now, where both claim sovereignty over all of China, and only one would be recognised at a time? If so, how long before countries are willing to recognise the CCP state?
How might this smaller Communist presence affect the Cold War in Asia?


(Apologies for the disorganisation of my thoughts)
 
Actually, a scenario like that isn't difficult. Just have Jiang Jishei not invade Manchuria, instead using the troops to clear out the remaining communists in china proper, and you have a communist *Taiwan*
 
Commentary...

The problem here is supply for the CCP. If the CCP is in the South and the KMT in the north, the CCP can't get supply from the Soviet Union nearly as easily. (Yes, the supply could come in from the west to Xinjiang, much less convenient)

Also, the primary reason that the Communists couldn't invade Taiwan was the US 7th Fleet. If the communists have retreated to Taiwan, things are reversed and the US navy can help with the invasion of Taiwan or at least a significant blockade. The Soviets (and anyone who the Soviets get along with) are going to be 1500 miles away. If they survive to the 1960s, maybe the Soviets try to put missles there.

Also, note with the KMT in the north, then either the Soviet need to help the Korean Communists themselves or see the American push them pretty close to the Soviet border.

Even if the Communists survive on Taiwan, the question is whether the Soviets would recognize them as the legitimate government of China. derecognition of the most populous government on your borders seems very provocative. Maybe some of the communist outliers in TTL (equivalents to OTL Yugoslavia, Albania and Cuba) recognize them, but unlikely.

Note, with a stable KMT government, IMO, any effort to take Vietnam communist seems unlikely (KMT Mainland/Vietnam relationship probably like OTL USA/Mexico relationship. (same level of underdog resentment, just 1000 more years of History to it). No clue what Laos and Cambodia look like ITTL.

As for Taiwan itself, I'm not sure that the Taiwanese make it to the top rungs that much earlier. I don't have a good feeling for how rapidly the Southern Chinese made it up the ladder. While the Taiwanese ITTL, might be equivalent to the Cantonese ITTL, I have *no* idea what the equivalant to the CCP relationship with the Taiwanese Aborigionals ITTL would be. Tibetans?
 
Assuming that the US and the KMT don't cooperate to invade and conquer Taiwan, which is a distinct possibility, then Taiwan would become a sort of Asian Cuba; diplomatically isolated from its neighbors and dependent on Soviet goodwill for anything more than the barest essentials. The CCP might eventually arrive at a modus vivendi with Japan, Korea, and the Phillipines, but the menace of mainland China and the US would be ever present and they would have to be very circumspect.

They would probably modernize and liberalize much sooner than OTL, simply because they do not have mainland China's abundant resources; they might even become a successful socialist state.

Mainland China would not do nearly as well as IOTL, given the massive corruption and centrifugal forces in the KMT regime. If Chiang cannot maintain control then China will become a land ruled by regional warlords with frequent conflict between them; the population, when not being slaughtered by one or another military, would be living in abject misery. Even if he can maintain control China would be closer to modern Russia than a Western democracy.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Actually if the Commies fled to Taiwan things would be much like OTL. A democratic Taiwan and an Authoritarian mainland. Or they'd both be dictatorships. Just can't see a mainland based KMT willingly give in to demands for democratization (as little as I can see the Commies doing it OTL).
 
To clarify, when I say "Taiwanese", I mean the Taiwanese-Fujianese, Hakka, etc, communities from Southern China, established in Taiwan prior to the RoC retaking the island, as well as the Taiwanese aboriginals. Basically, the non-mainlander, non-Mandarin speaking population.

At first glance, it doesn't seem too ridiculous to imagine the Battle of Jinmen going the other way round, with the Communists staving off the KMT as they ferried refugees over to Taiwan, except for the presence of ROC navy ships in the straits. The Communists only had captured fishing ships to work with, so a retreat to Taiwan is only going to happen without them being burnt if the Soviet Union successfully protests that they're civilians fleeing to safety. Which is possible, I suppose.

Assuming that the US and the KMT don't cooperate to invade and conquer Taiwan, which is a distinct possibility

This appears to be the key factor. I know that IOTL the US took no strong position on China/Taiwan until the Chinese intervention in the Korean War, which wouldn't happen in this timeline. So really, it's a question of whether the good will of the US towards Chiang is still strong enough to support a conquest of Taiwan. If they form an alliance with the Soviet Union early enough, this could get them protection from an attack. I like the idea of it being a sort of Asian Cuba.

The real question is, in what capacity could it exist internationally? I'm pondering the possibility of a Soviet-US brokered ceasefire and treaty that effectively 'partitions' China into the mainland and Taiwan. There may still be a PRC and a RoC, perhaps both claiming to be the legitimate government of all China, but consenting to a dual status. I wonder, though, if Taiwanisation might happen as and when it did IOTL, as more Taiwanese are brought into the party. I wonder also how tenacious the CCP would be as regards taking all of China back - would they be content with just Taiwan?

I can see democratisation, or at least opening like in the PRC of OTL, as a means to getting more favourable trade links with Japan and other Asian countries, not to mention the USA. If Taiwan is really as isolated as Cuba, this would presumably be a necessary step, both for domestic prosperity and security in the face of the mainland.
 
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