WI the Turks take Vienna in 1683

This, really this.

It's amazing how many people assume that "reforming" is just an automatic process; major overhauls of a system that's working just fine carry alot of risks for little tangible gain.

Even overhaul of the system which is NOT working fine can be a major problem: look at the Ottoman attempts to reform their army (IIRC, at least one sultan ended up being killed).

Now, having a strong Hungarian buffer and a weak Austria

Couple thoughts:
(a) The Hungarian buffer could be created but its strength is a completely different story. In OTL Tekeli had been routinely beaten (seems to be a decent subordinated cavalry general): it seems that the country (or whoever and whatever was in charge of raising money, etc.) was quite unenthusiastic about having a strong ruler with a powerful military force. Also keep in mind that while all that brouhaha at Vienna had been happening the Lithuanian army had been successfully looting Transylvania. Then, I'm not sure that capture of Vienna would automatically mean a complete Ottoman conquest of Hungary. In OTL the agreed upon plan (which Kara Mustafa abandoned) was to spend at least one campaigning season besieging and taking Hungarian castles. As an illustration of the general state of the affairs, Kara Mustafa did not even bother to inform Sultan about his change of plans until it was too late.

(b) Capture of Vienna would not automatically mean "weak Austria": the field army would remain intact and actually even without Sobieski Charles of Lorrain would be able to do a lot of damage to the Ottomans while they are storming the city.
 
In that case the result of this POD will be pretty much what happened in OTL. The Ottoman will win a battle get room to breathe, the Austrians reform their army and administrative system and run them over as they did in OTL

In that case the result of this POD will be pretty much what happened in OTL. The Ottoman will win a battle get room to breathe, the Austrians reform their army and administrative system and run them over as they did in OTL

Austria didn't need to reform their Army. They needed to pressure the Ottomans. If that doesn't happen the Austrians have a harder time. Austria had a pretty decent Army in the second half of the 17th Century. What you say doesn't make any sense.
 
Even overhaul of the system which is NOT working fine can be a major problem: look at the Ottoman attempts to reform their army (IIRC, at least one sultan ended up being killed).


Couple thoughts:
(a) The Hungarian buffer could be created but its strength is a completely different story. In OTL Tekeli had been routinely beaten (seems to be a decent subordinated cavalry general): it seems that the country (or whoever and whatever was in charge of raising money, etc.) was quite unenthusiastic about having a strong ruler with a powerful military force. Also keep in mind that while all that brouhaha at Vienna had been happening the Lithuanian army had been successfully looting Transylvania. Then, I'm not sure that capture of Vienna would automatically mean a complete Ottoman conquest of Hungary. In OTL the agreed upon plan (which Kara Mustafa abandoned) was to spend at least one campaigning season besieging and taking Hungarian castles. As an illustration of the general state of the affairs, Kara Mustafa did not even bother to inform Sultan about his change of plans until it was too late.

(b) Capture of Vienna would not automatically mean "weak Austria": the field army would remain intact and actually even without Sobieski Charles of Lorrain would be able to do a lot of damage to the Ottomans while they are storming the city.

About reforming the Army... the situation is much more complex. Osman II was 16 when he executed his brother Mehmed. This really infuriated the people. Osman II coming up with new (some ridiculous) plans gave the Janissaries a chance to revolt. The existence of other princes made it even possible. And before Vienna there were two attempts to reform the Army: Murad III letting more people to join the Janissary Corps (succesful) and Osman II abolishing the Corps (unsuccesful). It wasn't just reforming the Army, Osman angered a lot of people and was just 18.

Fall of Vienna would not mean a weaker military force ofcourse. But the loss of the capital might be a trigger for France to intervene forcing Austria to choose what to defend: The Rhineland or Hungary?

The existence of a Vassal in Upper Hungary would protect Transylvania falling under Habsburg influence and the logistic problems to rule it directly. Risky but better to have Thököly there than Leopold.
 
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