WI: The Treaty of Regensburg comes to fruition

In 1630, Marie de Medicis came close to getting Cardinal Richelieu dismissed on the Day of the Dupes. The Queen Mother was a staunch Catholic and Pro-Hapsburg and wanted to keep France out of the 30 years War. Her endeavor failed and Richelieu had convinced the King to refuse to sign the treaty his diplomats in Regensburg had put together with the Empire that would have prevented French interference in Germany and a year later the Empire signed a treaty with Sweden. What if the Queen Mother had been successful and ousted the cardinal before he could sabotage the peace deal? How does the war in Germany play out if the French are kept out of the conflict? The Emperor still has had his forces reduced in number and has had to sack Wallenstein as concessions to the diet, but France being kept out of the war is going to reduce the Imperial overstrech. What would the political situation in France be like with the Queen Mother's faction triumphant?
 
In 1630, Marie de Medicis came close to getting Cardinal Richelieu dismissed on the Day of the Dupes. The Queen Mother was a staunch Catholic and Pro-Hapsburg and wanted to keep France out of the 30 years War. Her endeavor failed and Richelieu had convinced the King to refuse to sign the treaty his diplomats in Regensburg had put together with the Empire that would have prevented French interference in Germany and a year later the Empire signed a treaty with Sweden. What if the Queen Mother had been successful and ousted the cardinal before he could sabotage the peace deal? How does the war in Germany play out if the French are kept out of the conflict? The Emperor still has had his forces reduced in number and has had to sack Wallenstein as concessions to the diet, but France being kept out of the war is going to reduce the Imperial overstrech. What would the political situation in France be like with the Queen Mother's faction triumphant?

I do not know enough to tell about the TYW, but in France, the political figure would be Chancellor Michel de Marillac. His ideas were summarized in his short-lived Code Michau, a legal text which reduced the power of the judiciary institutions in political matters and tried to lower the fence between nobility and trade, among many other things.
 
Well, if we take the Day of the Dupes as the POD I'm not so sure about who could replace Richelieu, but French internal politics will definitely stay problematic with Louis XIII still disagreeing with Marie de Medici and Gaston of Orleans constantly causing more trouble. But the fact that France won't intervene would have huge consequences on both Germany and the Netherlands. Gustav Adolf will still invade Germany but without the French gold helping his campaign there would be much shorter. Yes, the Emperor still has to dismiss Wallenstein but there are other capable generals on the Catholic side like Tilly and Pappenheim. Their army would be reduced but still would be much larger than the Swedish one. Now we are amazed at Gustav's success but in fact early on he had huge problems, the biggest ones being lack of finances and troops. Also, the Imperial army is returning soon from the Italian front and the Mantuan succession war so there is a good chance Sweden could be defeated. Maybe they could achieve a narrow victory or two thanks to their new tactics with linear formations, light artillery etc. but their advancements are going to be hindered by the lack of money. This in turn will reduce the number of German nobles who joined them as Gustav was in fact dependent on german recruits and support from electors of Saxony and a few other high-ranking princes. Eventually something like the OTL Peace of Prague seems plausible.
 
Gustav was in fact dependent on german recruits and support from electors of Saxony and a few other high-ranking princes.

Didn't the Elector of Saxony (as well as Gustav's brother-in-law in Brandenburg) attempt to avoid jumping in with both feet? In Brandenburg there was a struggle going on between the pro-Imperial chancellor and the electress (sister of the Winter King) and her son who supported the anti-Imperial party. Saxony IIRC was also more in the imperial camp (and who can really blame him, he held his electorate solely by virtue of the other branch of his family's treason against Karl V/Ferdinand I in the prrvious century), wasn't he?
 
Didn't the Elector of Saxony (as well as Gustav's brother-in-law in Brandenburg) attempt to avoid jumping in with both feet? In Brandenburg there was a struggle going on between the pro-Imperial chancellor and the electress (sister of the Winter King) and her son who supported the anti-Imperial party. Saxony IIRC was also more in the imperial camp (and who can really blame him, he held his electorate solely by virtue of the other branch of his family's treason against Karl V/Ferdinand I in the prrvious century), wasn't he?

Yes, Brandenburg was pretty much strong-armed into joining Sweden and Saxony joined only after Swedes showed some promise and the Imperial army already encroached into Saxon territory pillaging. They in fact only wanted a neutral block and an end to the war but jumped the fence when they were really forced to. So I agree that could be butterflied away
 
Didn't the Elector of Saxony (as well as Gustav's brother-in-law in Brandenburg) attempt to avoid jumping in with both feet? In Brandenburg there was a struggle going on between the pro-Imperial chancellor and the electress (sister of the Winter King) and her son who supported the anti-Imperial party. Saxony IIRC was also more in the imperial camp (and who can really blame him, he held his electorate solely by virtue of the other branch of his family's treason against Karl V/Ferdinand I in the prrvious century), wasn't he?

If Saxony is kept out of the war would there still be a Battle of Breitenfeld?
 
If Saxony is kept out of the war would there still be a Battle of Breitenfeld?

probably not. If the Saxons refuse to support Gustav then the Swedish invasion of Saxony would only turn the Elector against him. While the Saxons were mostly overrun at Breitenfeld IOTL if they don't join him or even worse even they join the Imperials on the battlefield the battle could have a different outcome. And after that I think that everything would go downhill for Sweden
 
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