WI: The Treasure Fleet was Never Torched

I think people get hung up on the Treasure Ships themselves in such a way of thinking that BIGGER IS BETTER and that the Ming could not have still retired the Treasure Ships and maintained a strong Naval Presence from the Kurils to Indonesia or Sri Lanka.
 
I think people get hung up on the Treasure Ships themselves in such a way of thinking that BIGGER IS BETTER and that the Ming could not have still retired the Treasure Ships and maintained a strong Naval Presence from the Kurils to Indonesia or Sri Lanka.

I don't see anything like that having being said on the thread. Actually, but I can speak only for myself, some of my post pointed out that Great Junks wouldn't have been necessary to maintain a maritime domination over Eastern Asia coast and maybe up to India.
 
What if the Ming never turned inward? What if Zheng He's great treasure fleet was never burned?

If the Treasure Fleet isnt burned it rots at anchor.

Seriously, it was a blasteed expensive prestige project, imo more like the US moon missions than a commercial trading venture. Sending it out a handful of times to known ports to overawe the locals, and get their (nominal) vassalage, sure. But once youve done that, whats the point of continuing.

To me, a more interesting question would be 'what if some emperor encouraged trade?'. Taxes from increased trade might encourage a bureaucracy devoted to trade, so overseas trade and settlement increases. Taiwan could become Chinese much sooner, and places like the Philippines and Vietnam (or portions thereof), could get swallowed by an expanding China.
 
What was the emperor about other than prestige. The Mandate of Heaven decreed that the Emperor was the lord of the world. He needed to prove that.

Whether the treasure ships were retained or if more reasonable sized ships took their place, they still would have vastly exceeded the ships of the Portuguese and Arabs that they may have encountered.

The Chinese were not after conquest but hegemony. They did not want to rule and possess the lands, but exert great influence upon them.

It is distinctly possible that the Chinese would have found the "Spice Islands" well before the Portuguese. If so, the entire history of the western world may have been changed.
 
It is distinctly possible that the Chinese would have found the "Spice Islands" well before the Portuguese. If so, the entire history of the western world may have been changed.

How? You said yourself, China's maritime policy wasn't about taking over buyt excecizing their influence as much it was possible.
Giving they didn't have any vital or important interest on India, compared to South-East Asia,it's not even a given that they would encounter portuguese traders there in first place.

Even if it was the case, I don't see how it change western history so radically.
Except if they decide to launch a maritime expedition in India against Portuguese traders only for trolling them with a costly and useless (for them expedition), the changes would have been...limited.

I don't get what you mean by "Spice Islands", are you mentionning Indonesia? Then yes, you would have a greater chinese influence over there, of course, but it wasn't an objective of portuguese traders, at least not before the XVI century and mostly in the objective to have trading posts with China.
 
What was the emperor about other than prestige. The Mandate of Heaven decreed that the Emperor was the lord of the world. He needed to prove that.
The Ming Emperor at this time is busy trying to prove he can be a lord over the Mongols in the north and the Vietnamese in the south. This is a reason that people are forgetting: there's not enough money for the treasure ships while a great number of costly military campaigns are going on.
 
How? You said yourself, China's maritime policy wasn't about taking over buyt excecizing their influence as much it was possible.

Giving they didn't have any vital or important interest on India, compared to South-East Asia,it's not even a given that they would encounter portuguese traders there in first place.

While the Portuguese were finding their way around Africa and across the Arabian Sea to India, the Chinese were shipping goods to Europe via entrepots in India, Oman and Yemen. Had the emperor continued to maintain and build an international trade presence, A "Sphere of influence" shall we say, they would have indeed come into contact. What happened in OTL involving an inward looking China and expansionist Portugal bears little impact on what might have happened in this time line with an actively hegemonic China and Expansionist Portugal.

Even if it was the case, I don't see how it change western history so radically.

The Portuguese entered a power vacuum in the Indian Ocean. An Active China could have well stopped them in their tracks.

Except if they decide to launch a maritime expedition in India against Portuguese traders only for trolling them with a costly and useless (for them expedition), the changes would have been...limited.

Not likely, but the Portuguese may have found it harder to continue their eastward drive across the Indian Ocean. They might have had competition, equally armed and wealthier competition, for domination of the straights of Malacca for example. Any of these things could have delayed further exploration. In the context of the importance of their expansion accros the Indian Ocean, I believe that would have had a significant impact on later events

I don't get what you mean by "Spice Islands", are you mentioning Indonesia? Then yes, you would have a greater chinese influence over there, of course, but it wasn't an objective of portuguese traders, at least not before the XVI century and mostly in the objective to have trading posts with China.

The Spice Islands I am referring to are the Banda Islands in Indonesia, at that time the only sources of Nutmeg and Mace. A total mystery to the Europeans who surrounded the source of these spices with fantastic legends. This is what the Portuguese were ultimately after, control of the Spice trade. There was a lot of other cargo the Portuguese brought back to Lisbon, aromatic woods, silks, numerous other culinary spices, but these two were the last and most valuable. There was fighting between local war lords, the Spanish, Dutch and English as well as the Portuguese for control of these islands. Had China already exercised commercial hegemony over them and gained control of the production of Nutmeg and Mace, The Europeans would have been facing a very different foe.

An important factor in this premise is that China continues to look outward and remains an active participant in world affairs. Much of what happened in Asia during the "Age of Exploration" was partially due to the absence of China as a major player.

Start altering those events and the world starts to change...significantly.
 
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The Portuguese entered a power vacuum in the Indian Ocean. An Active China could have well stopped them in their tracks.
Not really : Portuguese created a power vaacum by bombing cities that refused to trade with them and by crushing Islamic commercial hegemony in the region.
Even at its maritime peak, China contended itself to establish formal diplomatic ties.

It's simply that Ming didn't have nearly as the same impetus into an anctual commercial hegemony on India than Portuguese : after all while the latter needed to overcome Islamic-Italian monopoly on Eastern Mediterranean/Red Sea trade road by huge maritime expeditions to India; China had a direct trade relation by land.

I simply fail to see what would be the conflict motivation, as Portugal never tried to take control of Indian production, but of Indian trade towards Europe.
Hell, it's not like the end of chinese great maritime expedition even put an end to maritime trade with India IOTL.

And contacts with Africa and Arabia were more about prestige matters than actually trying to vassalize or gain an hegemony on them. At best, Zheng He was making a point, and when conflicts arose, it was always in reaction of local hostility and/or to support one side in an ongoing war (not unlike Portugal supported Ethiopians OTL without real geopolitical benefit).

Not likely, but the Portuguese may have found it harder to continue their eastward drive across the Indian Ocean.
Would have they tried that if China managed to create economical outposts in Indonesia? Remember that the impetus wasn't at first to take and conquer for the lulz of it, but to have all the upper hand on trade between Indias (in the largest sense) and Europe.

A total mystery to the Europeans who surrounded the source of these spices with fantastic legends.
We had this conversation before : having legends about something doesn't mean you fully or even partially believe them.
Are you seriously believing that there's actually a supernatural living being called Santa Claus magically distributing gifts every Christmas? Probably not.
Still, this myth is particularly present in western culture, and an alien spectator would be a bit at miss.

While admittedly vague about it, and mixing facts, obsolete situations, and diverse stories about it (mostly because "Meh' economical and productive matters are boring. Let's put some unicorn on that"), Europeans had a good enough idea on where to find it. Not that of a "total mystery" but more of "This place far away we don't know much about".

An important factor in this premise is that China continues to look outward and remains an active participant in world affairs. Much of what happened in Asia during the "Age of Exploration" was partially due to the absence of China as a major player.
China never really played a that important role on Indian Sea, and ceased to directly intervene on Central Asia fater Battle of Talas.

Certainly, a more interventionist (or actually, a lasting interventionist) China would have huge consequences on world history. It requires a better PoD than the OP, and much more earlier for that.

Sticking with what the OP asks for, the consequences would have been limited : China didn't show an interest controlling Indian Sea or indian production, and the major player in Indian Sea was since centuries Arabo-Islamic traders, not them. Period.

What could change, would be Afonso de Albuquerque expedition or equivalent. But seeing that his goal was to have direct contact with asian producers, it doesn't much changes things in Europe (at least, at middle term) that these would be on China sphere of influence as OTL, or under an hegemonic Chinese overlordship.

A greater change would be, with a Chinese presence on Philippines, about the American/Chinese trade dominated by Spain. This trade was for a good part responsible of Portuguese commercial decline and Dutch takeover, as well part of Habsburg wealth.

Not that it wouldn't happen ITTL, but clearly, Spain wouldn't have a clear monopoly on these relations.
 
Not really : Portuguese created a power vaacum by bombing cities that refused to trade with them and by crushing Islamic commercial hegemony in the region.
Even at its maritime peak, China contended itself to establish formal diplomatic ties.

It's simply that Ming didn't have nearly as the same impetus into an anctual commercial hegemony on India than Portuguese : after all while the latter needed to overcome Islamic-Italian monopoly on Eastern Mediterranean/Red Sea trade road by huge maritime expeditions to India; China had a direct trade relation by land.

No Our Ming didn’t, and the Ming of the OP is obviously a different Ming. India was not the only jewel of trade in the Indian Ocean. Malacca, Indonesia, Ceylon (Sri Lanka) would be prizes as well. The Portuguese did not stop at India and went right on through to the Bandas. The land route between China and India is relatively inefficient compared to the available sea routes.


I simply fail to see what would be the conflict motivation, as Portugal never tried to take control of Indian production, but of Indian trade towards Europe.
Hell, it's not like the end of chinese great maritime expedition even put an end to maritime trade with India IOTL.

I believe that the Portuguese did try to gain control of Indian pepper production, they most definitely tried to control the production of Nutmeg and Mace and of course they wanted control of European trade. One of the ways the controlled the trade was by controlling Entrepots and bottle necks. Malacca specifically for example, and there repeated assaults on Oman and Yemen.

And contacts with Africa and Arabia were more about prestige matters than actually trying to vassalize or gain an hegemony on them. At best, Zheng He was making a point, and when conflicts arose, it was always in reaction of local hostility and/or to support one side in an ongoing war (not unlike Portugal supported Ethiopians OTL without real geopolitical benefit).

Outwardly focused china would have already known Arabia and it’s powers. They “Vassalized” everywhere they went. The Emperor was the Son of Heaven, every other king, prince, lord, Sultan etc was already his underling. The Vassalization took the form of gifts and pronouncements and some hostages, but little more as you got into the more remote parts of the world.

I could make some comments regarding the Portuguese relationship with Ethiopia, but this is the wrong thread.


Would have they tried that if China managed to create economical outposts in Indonesia? Remember that the impetus wasn't at first to take and conquer for the lulz of it, but to have all the upper hand on trade between Indias (in the largest sense) and Europe.

Depending on what had happened if the Chinese had tried to control the Straits of Malacca, thePortuguese may not have made it into Indonesian waters, at least not from the West. The initial Impetus when the Portuguese began sailing beyond India was no longer just trade. It required land bases, safe harbors and a constant presence of the Portuguese navy. Had they been turned back at Malacca, World history would have been the victim of a very large Butterfly.


We had this conversation before : having legends about something doesn't mean you fully or even partially believe them.
Are you seriously believing that there's actually a supernatural living being called Santa Claus magically distributing gifts every Christmas? Probably not.
Still, this myth is particularly present in western culture, and an alien spectator would be a bit at miss.

While admittedly vague about it, and mixing facts, obsolete situations, and diverse stories about it (mostly because "Meh' economical and productive matters are boring. Let's put some unicorn on that"), Europeans had a good enough idea on where to find it. Not that of a "total mystery" but more of "This place far away we don't know much about".

You completely miss the point of the legends and Myths discussion…Back to the Portuguese in Ethiopia…The reason they were there, under royal auspices and carrying messages from the King, is that they were looking for Prester John. A legend if ever there was one.

Just because something is cloaked in legend or myth does not mean that it is not believed by very intelligent people at a given time. Take all the legends of unknown, lost worlds that have led experienced explorers to their deaths. Just because it is legend or myth does not mean that it is unbelievable.

And prove to me that Santa is NOT real!

Unfortunately, Europeans had little or no idea where much of this stuff came from and how it got to the markets where they bought it. So they built on what they knew…and in many cases, all they knew was legend.
 
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No Our Ming didn’t, and the Ming of the OP is obviously a different Ming. India was not the only jewel of trade in the Indian Ocean. Malacca, Indonesia, Ceylon (Sri Lanka) would be prizes as well.
I don't know what you're talking about here, unfortunatly, as you quoted my entiere post.

Assuming (sorry if I'm mistaken) that you mean Ming didn't had maritime relations with Indias before and after great Junks went to the paradise of ships, you're wrong. Directly or indirectly, legal or illegal (Haijin being unnapliable in its entierty), it provoked the creation of Chinese "diaspora" in Asiatic S-E.

Quoting the Armenian Genocide, hoping it would be reliable enough.

Many Chinese merchants chose to settle down in the Southeast Asian ports such as Champa, Cambodia, Sumatra, and Java, and married the native women. Their children carried on trade.[2][3]

Java: Zheng He's (Chinese: 鄭和) compatriot Ma Huan (Chinese: 马欢) recorded in his book (Chinese: zh:瀛涯胜览) that large numbers of Chinese lived in the Majapahit Empire on Java, especially in Surabaya (Chinese: 泗水). The place where the Chinese lived was called New Village (Chinese: 新村), with many originally from Canton, Zhangzhou and Quanzhou.

Cambodia: Envoy of Yuan dynasty, Zhou Daguan (Chinese: 周达观) recorded in his The Customs of Chenla (Chinese: 真腊风土记), that there were many Chinese, especially sailors, who lived there. Many intermarried with the local women.

Champa: the Daoyi Zhilue documents Chinese merchants who went to Cham ports in Champa, married Cham women, to whom they regularly returned to after trading voyages.[4] A Chinese merchant from Quanzhou, Wang Yuanmao, traded extensively with Champa, and married a Cham princess.[5]
Siam: According to the clan chart of family name Lim, Gan, Ng, Khaw, Cheah, many Chinese traders lived there. They were amongst some of the Siamese envoys sent to China.

Borneo: Many Chinese lived there as recorded by Zheng He.

Ryūkyū Kingdom: Many Chinese moved to Ryukyu to serve the government or engage in business during this period. The Ming dynasty Chinese sent from Fujian 36 Chinese families at the request of the Ryukyuan King to manage oceanic dealings in the kingdom in 1392 during the Hongwu Emperor's reign. Many Ryukyuan officials were descended from these Chinese immigrants, being born in China or having Chinese grandfathers.[6] They assisted in the Ryukyuans in advancing their technology and diplomatic relations.[7][8][9]

In 1405, under the Ming dynasty, Tan Sheng Shou, the Battalion Commander Yang Xin (Chinese: 杨欣) and others were sent to Java's Old Port (Palembang; Chinese: 旧港) to bring the absconder Liang Dao Ming (Chinese: 梁道明) and others to negotiate pacification. He took his family and fled to live in this place, where he remained for many years. Thousands of military personnel and civilians from Guangdong and Fujian followed him there and chose Dao Ming as their leader.

For the different Ming part, I would disagree with this allohistorical "methodology", if we want something plausible (aka Rule of Cool, being ruled out). TTL Ming policy wouldn't came out of nowhere, as if all the Chinese civilisation touched by the Hand of God have a total change of mind and heart.
In short, they would be largely similar to "our" Mings, with similar ideas and objectives, just artificially giving them a small push to one direction. I don't excpect TTL China acting totally "OOC".

I believe that the Portuguese did try to gain control of Indian pepper production, they most definitely tried to control the production of Nutmeg and Mace and of course they wanted control of European trade.
No, Portugal never really managed to do that. They controlled a local production, once they controlled commercial outposts, but these were hardly the only production centers (at best, centers for production that was already sold to Arabo-European markets before Portuguese came in).
The proportion of spices that went to China in the same period than Portuguese hegemony on Indian Sea is estimated being between 1/4 or 1/3 of the total indian production.

One of the ways the controlled the trade was by controlling Entrepots and bottle necks. Malacca specifically for example, and there repeated assaults on Oman and Yemen
There's a difference between taking on Arabs that monopolized trade trough Near East to Europe, and taking on China that had no role whatsoever in this trade, and wouldn't have tried to monopolize India-Europe trade or had control of outposts or places that could have threatened Portuguese commercial hegemony for this particular trade.

They were there to trade directly with producers, and get rid of costly intermediaries. At this point, I don't see a single reason, critically from a more trading-minded Ming China, to prevent Portuguese founding outpost in Indonesia as they did OTL in "mainland" China in 1514.

OTL and much probably ITTL as well Portuguese and Chinese trade were more complementary than rivals. China would certainly enjoy an even more dominating position on this trade than IOTL, but it wouldn't really lead to middle-term radical changes for Portugal.

Back to the Portuguese in Ethiopia…The reason they were there, under royal auspices and carrying messages from the King, is that they were looking for Prester John. A legend if ever there was one.
Again with the legend stuff...

Yes, one of the impulse was to find a local ally against Arabs, traditionally identified as Priest John. I gave you that (while Priest John myth is more a result of European trails in Asia, a personnification of the possibilities they saw there than a previously existing legend).
The other, and probably the main one, was to reach Calicut trough the traditional road trough Red Sea, recknognizing the trade ways of their rivals for Indias/Europe trade.

When they managed to get there, they quickly understood that, no, the handful of more or less heretical Ethiopians in their way to be crushed by their Islamic neighbours weren't the Priest John that supposedly sent a letter claiming he would be able to take on Arabs.

Depsite that, and depsite the fact this road became more and more uninteresting with a more regular circumnavigating way, Portugal still send some help to make a point to Arabs ("We"re in charge now"), their own population and neighbours ("We're the real defensors of Christiendom") as well for ideological reason.

Zheng He intervention in local policies was really similar to that once past Indonesia. Less having an actual hegemonic objective on where he landed than making points about how his emperor was to dominate to possible native partners (possibly helping some against their own foes), and to the population of China.
Such maintained policy, more ideological at this point than an expansionnist or even hegemonic that far of Ming cores, wouldn't have been irreconciliable with Portuguese' policie (critically with the really important aura China had already in European minds at this time).

Take all the legends of unknown, lost worlds that have led experienced explorers to their deaths. Just because it is legend or myth does not mean that it is unbelievable.
Dead explorers can't tell their story, meaning someone else did that.
For instance, Ponce de León's ennemies or at least people friends of these, written down that he died searching for the Fountain of Youth, what a fool he was.

This story encountered some success (notably because he couldn't exactly answer), but it doesn't mean that is true, and that people widely believing that such thing actuall existed.

Unfortunately, they had little or no idea where much of this stuff came from and how it got to the markets where they bought it. So they built on what they knew…and in many cases, all they knew was legned.
Then again, you just have to look up to books on Asia that were sort of best-selling in late medieval era.

While most of the stuff was eventually obsolete (as Europeans still believing the Great Khan was a thing by the XVth century), you had a good enough knowledge about where to find stuff.

Introduction to the historical context for studies of relations between France and India during Middle Ages - Samuel Berthet said:
Regarding reception of Indias in medieval France, it's hard to speculate on possible contacts between traders or sailors of french coast with their counterparts, indians, or at least intermediaries of these ones.

Trough litterary production, Indias are nevertheless well present in France. It's a well known fact that the most famous trail tale of Middle Ages, a tale that notably tell about Indias, Marco Polo's, is written in french by a jail companion of the author.
[...]
Marco Polo's tale participate of a geographical context that see from one side outposts between West and East established along Silk Road (essentially terrestrial wars trough Middle-East) and Spices Roads (combined terrestrial and maritime ways trough Indian Sea), but as well great turmoil in Arabo-Persic world after Mongol empire expension.
It put in question the established balances, his representents being seen not only as partners having to be taken on consideration, but also as a break into islamic world on which Christian world may count on.

If eventually, rivalities of both sides take the upper hand, it's the occasion to send expedition and religious missions in order to stuty religious disposition in territories takenover by Mongols and their possible allies.
Priest Jogn legend - a christian king that would have ruled over Ethiopia, Indias or a Central Asian region, cristallize entierly this idea and its ambiguities.
In its this context that Marco Polo's expedition takes place, and certainly Jourdain de Séverac's as well.

So, in the middle of XIVth century, a french missionary left Persia with other dominican friars to China are arrested and killed at Tana, close to Bombay. Only survivor, Jourdain, not discouraged, continue his periple in India and lives on Gujerat and Kerala, particularly at Quilon.
Once back in Europe, he give an account of his dale, under the title Mirabilia Descripta, a manuscript still avaible in National Library archives of London.

Jourdain de Séverac (Jordan Catala de Sévérac)'s adventures doesn't stop there, as he obtained from the pope the charge of Quilon bishopry, as well of Colombo sea in 1330, later named archbishop of Persia and go organzing under his patronage the religious communauty of Quilon/Kulam.

The text left by Jourdain de Séverac, according Catherine Gadrat, author of a thesis on Mirabilia Descripta "is a good exemple of links that may exist between medieval encylopedic accounts of the world's wonders and trail's account. Within mirabilia tradition, Jordan doesn't pretend to reject wonders, but seek to integrate them in a reality considered as wonderful.
He show a curiosity and a capacity to wonder both remarkables."

She underlines the particular interest given by the author to plants and animals, rather than towns.

Is Jourdain de Séverac an unic exemple, or rather the only one whom existance came up to our day? It's established that the road between France and Indias existed, as someone used it twice.
It's perfectly reasonable that some french voyagers may have gone to Indian sub-continent, either volontary as Séverac, or by accident a bit as the venetian Niccolo da Manucci two centuries later.

Probably voyagers established in Near East had continued their trips to Indian Sea, either free or enslaved. It musn't be forgotten that such trip implied constraints that didn't always motivated them to publy their adventures, notably a necessary conversion to Islam as it happened for Niccolo de Conti.

On a unrelated note, could you avoid posting block of text? They're harder to read and to answer. Thanks.
 
I don't know what you're talking about here, unfortunatly, as you quoted my entiere post.

Please see my edited post for better clarification. I apologize but it was time for me to go to Happy Hour.

Assuming (sorry if I'm mistaken) that you mean Ming didn't had maritime relations with Indias before and after great Junks went to the paradise of ships, you're wrong. Directly or indirectly, legal or illegal (Haijin being unnapliable in its entierty), it provoked the creation of Chinese "diaspora" in Asiatic S-E.

No, of course I did not mean that, I am well aware of the Chinese communities spread throughout the region. China was trading with India, as it was with Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Oman, etc. The point you may have missed is that I am speaking of a different mindset on the part of the Ming. In order to retain the fleet, with or without the treasure ships, they would have needed to look outward. This is a fundamental difference in global view.



For the different Ming part, I would disagree with this allohistorical "methodology", if we want something plausible (aka Rule of Cool, being ruled out). TTL Ming policy wouldn't came out of nowhere, as if all the Chinese civilisation touched by the Hand of God have a total change of mind and heart.
In short, they would be largely similar to "our" Mings, with similar ideas and objectives, just artificially giving them a small push to one direction. I don't excpect TTL China acting totally "OOC".

For the Ming NOT to turn inward their world view would need to be different. They would have formed different opinions, points of view about the outside world and what was good for them / China.

It is essential that this fundamental change take place in order to save the treasure fleet, or the concept of an outward looking commercial policy. It won't happen if our Mings have the same viewpoint as TTL
Mings.

If you want to consider this change of attitude as a Deus Ex Machina, so be it, but without that difference, the OP is simply impossible...The OP requires a fundamentally different outlook on the part of the Forbidden City.


No, Portugal never really managed to do that. They controlled a local production, once they controlled commercial outposts, but these were hardly the only production centers (at best, centers for production that was already sold to Arabo-European markets before Portuguese came in).
The proportion of spices that went to China in the same period than Portuguese hegemony on Indian Sea is estimated being between 1/4 or 1/3 of the total indian production.

"Until the mid-19th century the Banda Islands were the world's only source of the spices nutmeg and mace, produced from the nutmeg tree."


"In August 1511 on behalf of the king of Portugal, Afonso de Albuquerque conquered Malacca, which at the time was the hub of Asian trade. In November of that year, after having secured Malacca and learning of the Bandas' location, Albuquerque sent an expedition of three ships led by his good friend António de Abreu to find them. Malay pilots, either recruited or forcibly conscripted, guided them via Java, the Lesser Sundas and Ambon to Banda, arriving in early 1512.[2] The first Europeans to reach the Bandas, the expedition remained in Banda for about one month, purchasing and filling their ships with Banda's nutmeg and mace, and with cloves in which Banda had a thriving entrepôt trade.[3] D'Abreu sailed through Ambon while his second in command Francisco Serrão went ahead towards the Maluku islands, was shipwrecked and ended up in Ternate.[4] Distracted by hostilities elsewhere in the archipelago, such as Ambon and Ternate, the Portuguese did not return until 1529; a Portuguese trader Captain Garcia landed troops in the Bandas. Five of the Banda islands were within gunshot of each other and he realised that a fort on the main island Neira would give him full control of the group. The Bandanese were, however, hostile to such a plan, and their warlike antics were both costly and tiresome to Garcia whose men were attacked when they attempted to build a fort. From then on, the Portuguese were infrequent visitors to the islands preferring to buy their nutmeg from traders in Malacca.[5]


Unlike other eastern Indonesian islands, such as Ambon, Solor, Ternate and Morotai, the Bandanese displayed no enthusiasm for Christianity or the Europeans who brought it in the sixteenth century, and no serious attempt was made to Christianise the Bandanese.[4] Maintaining their independence, the Bandanese never allowed the Portuguese to build a fort or a permanent post in the islands. Ironically though, it was this lack of ports which brought the Dutch to trade at Banda instead of the clove islands of Ternate and Tidore."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banda_Islands

I agree that I got their occupation of the Banda Islands incorrect. However they were still conquering ports and terrritories in order to control the trade.

There's a difference between taking on Arabs that monopolized trade trough Near East to Europe, and taking on China that had no role whatsoever in this trade, and wouldn't have tried to monopolize India-Europe trade or had control of outposts or places that could have threatened Portuguese commercial hegemony for this particular trade.

They were there to trade directly with producers, and get rid of costly intermediaries. At this point, I don't see a single reason, critically from a more trading-minded Ming China, to prevent Portuguese founding outpost in Indonesia as they did OTL in "mainland" China in 1514.

OTL and much probably ITTL as well Portuguese and Chinese trade were more complementary than rivals. China would certainly enjoy an even more dominating position on this trade than IOTL, but it wouldn't really lead to middle-term radical changes for Portugal.

There is no point in China dominating India/Europe trade. Malacca was a very important entrepot for China. A more activist trading China would have looked badly on having that wrested from their influence. The Portuguese were difficult trading partners at best and I do not know how tolerant an activist China would be of their shenanigans

Again with the legend stuff...

Yes, one of the impulse was to find a local ally against Arabs, traditionally identified as Priest John. I gave you that (while Priest John myth is more a result of European trails in Asia, a personnification of the possibilities they saw there than a previously existing legend).
The other, and probably the main one, was to reach Calicut trough the traditional road trough Red Sea, recknognizing the trade ways of their rivals for Indias/Europe trade.

When they managed to get there, they quickly understood that, no, the handful of more or less heretical Ethiopians in their way to be crushed by their Islamic neighbours weren't the Priest John that supposedly sent a letter claiming he would be able to take on Arabs.

Depsite that, and depsite the fact this road became more and more uninteresting with a more regular circumnavigating way, Portugal still send some help to make a point to Arabs ("We"re in charge now"), their own population and neighbours ("We're the real defensors of Christiendom") as well for ideological reason.

I wish we could let this go. I am very familiar with the entire Prester John history. The missions sent to Ethiopia were purpose sent because they believed that this was indeed the Priests kingdom. Yes there were other gaols, such as the trade route you mention, but they none the less arrived with letters and gifts from the Portuguese court. Ambassadors were even exchanged. the Admirals sailing from Lisbon to India played the role of Chauffeur, ferrying the diplomatic and religious expedition to the Prester. at least that was the plan...there seem to be very few trustworthy and reasonable Portuguese at this time.

But the point is not why they went to Ethiopia, but that they honestly believed that it was the kingdom of Prester John. That is the point of that discussion.

I believe that you need to remember that the level of analytical thought that you may bring to bear on a question, issue, "fact" is colored by your knowledge of the world, mankind etc.

Of course many of the fantastical tales told in the Middle ages were intendeed for the masses, but there were sufficient scholars who did believe in completely ridiculous explanations for thins we plainly see as fabrications of the wildest kind. This was a world that believed in witchcraft, magic, sorcery, the devil active on the earth. Just because you think that these legends and stories existed but the people didn't have to believe them does not mean that they were not widely believed.

I hope this was more readable and hope you saw the edit of my previous post.
 
. The point you may have missed is that I am speaking of a different mindset on the part of the Ming. In order to retain the fleet, with or without the treasure ships, they would have needed to look outward. This is a fundamental difference in global view.
As Ming China had a fleet, and had a maritime policy before and after its great expeditions, I don't see how it would have been that of a radical change of mind.
That the trade wasn't supported fully or even forbidden by imperial institutions isn't the point there : rather that you already had an impetus to look outward in OTL China.
There's no need of a fudemental change of mind or identity, but of a different social and ideological balance.

Of course you'll have differences, but these wouldn't be radical without a radical PoD such as the "suddenly, ATL China doesn't think as OTL China". It would be, in order to simply be plausible, gradual and in the lines of former conceptions of the world at least up to middle term.

I agree that I got their occupation of the Banda Islands incorrect. However they were still conquering ports and terrritories in order to control the trade.
But I did agree from that on the very first post I made on the topic : Portuguese did in order to chase of Arabo-Islamic traders that they couldn't have chased if they had made a more peaceful approach.
My point is that they wouldn't have any reason to do that with Chinese, admittedly except if Chinese or cities within Chinese sphere of influence sell their production at insane prices as Arabs did in Europe when it costed increadibly lower in India.
That, I can't imagine why they would.

Again, the goal of Portuguese traders was to have access to cheap spices. Arabo-Muslims traders having the upper hands, networks, more closer bases, and were able to trade more easily (both because they had more ressources, and that Portuguese goods didn't interested many people there), they simply cannoned their way to Indian outposts.

I don't see a reason (and I point reason, not principles as "It requires so of a change of mind to get that, who know what they may think") why China would refuse to make a profitable trade (in which they would be clearly dominating, because if Portugal decided to go insane, they would have enough power to ruin them), or to allow european traders to open outpost or "european" neighbours in native cities.

"Until the mid-19th century the Banda Islands were the world's only source of the spices nutmeg and mace, produced from the nutmeg tree."
Ah, I'm sorry, I was referring to the pepper production control, not mace or nutmeg. My bad.

There is no point in China dominating India/Europe trade. Malacca was a very important entrepot for China. A more activist trading China would have looked badly on having that wrested from their influence. The Portuguese were difficult trading partners at best and I do not know how tolerant an activist China would be of their shenanigans

Well, that would certainly be one of the changes I pointed out. Portuguese traders were opportunistic : they exploited geopolitical and technical weakeness of Arabo-Islamic commercial hegeomony at their profit.
A more maritime minded and powerful China would be certainly doesn't look as nearly as much possibly to take-over.
Sure, they would have an harder time having what they want, and at a somewhat higher price.
But face to a chinese hegemony, they would more probably comply in order to not loose stupidly a much important and fructuous wealth.

Admittedly, yes I can think of a bad rap : bad attempts at christianisation that would backfire, and Portugal wouldn't have merchandises that much of interest for China to make them tolerated too much.
So, yeah, either they behave or they would be replaced by someone else (note that it would necessit someone with relativly close bases in India or Americas, so possibly Spain).

But the point is not why they went to Ethiopia, but that they honestly believed that it was the kingdom of Prester John. That is the point of that discussion.
No, why I did bring this exemple wasn't for that : my point was to show that military expedition or demonstrations in Indian Ocean whatever by Chinese or Europeans weren't always related to direct tentatives of hegemony or vassalization.
Summarizing it : that China did a point in zones controlled by Arabo-Islmaic traders doesn't mean that they would take on them if they maintain a more opened maritime policy.

For Ethiopia particularly, the religious missions weren't as much launched because they tought it was Prester John up to the end.
In fact, even if a Prester John had ruled what was basically a backwards kingdom with no real direct interest whatsoever for Portugal, it would,'t have probably changed many things.

Portugal, in a "holier-than-thou" struggle with his friendly, but rivaling neighbour, had to make a point about it when defenser of the cross meant legitimacy (at least ideologically) to rule over exotic lands trade.

Just making this last point, and after that I'd be ready to let it go if you want : Did Prester John story played on this? Yes. Did it mattered? No.

Of course many of the fantastical tales told in the Middle ages were intendeed for the masses
It wasn't my point. Masses wouldn't have access to what remained expensive books, and lucky if they heard about this sort of things, even in urban settings.
The point (and the point of the article I translated) was that medieval scholars mixed mervellous elements with accurate statements. In order to "catch" the audiance, in order to demonstrate that God creation was so wonderful, or to make a point, etc.

Now, did some people believed it? Probably. But to say as a point of fact that people swallowed up marvellous on a daily basis isn't sustainable.

You quouted witchcraft, magic, and diverse religious elements : you forget to say that was a thing present in masses essentially, with a huge reaction from scholars, humanists or not.
Not that these had a materialistic, cartesian point of view but based on centuries of intellectual rejection of magic as something marvellous or supernatural, they entered it in a logical system, rationalizing it when they didn't rejected it.

Furthermore these beliefs were supported by ideological or material interests (not going trough a full explanation, it would require another, really different thread), and keeping the marvellous element as the main one wasn't possible at the moment you precisely search to know or to appropriate it, as what we're talking about now.

I hope this was more readable and hope you saw the edit of my previous post.
Actually, I didn't : you edited your post quite an hour after my answer. But that's okay, and I hope I get most of it.
 
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