WI: The Teutonic Knights invaded the Balkans?

[Paraipan]

Wasn't the kingdom carving aspect from Brandenburg, rather than within Prussia?

More to the point, how are they going to survive the rise of the Ottomans (or something similarly threatening)?

Well, let's say Brandenburg-Prussia ... as for the Ottomans, the Teutons would need to survive the Mongols first, so let's not go so far ahead.

Well, Wallachia became Ottoman vassal only in 1415, and Teutonic State would likely fare better. Perhaps situation would be similar to OTL in Prussia - TO being slowly defeated by Ottomans, resulting decline leads to revolts of cities (like with Prussian Confederation), which finally turns remnants of Teutonic state into secularized (maybe even protestant) vassal of Ottoman Empire.

Why would it fare better?

I mean, what does it have that would stand up to an Ottoman army more successfully than OTL Wallachia?

I think the difference so far as the Ottomans or a similar power is concerned is more in the details than the balance of power.

Well, for starters, Wallachia was a young state when it met the Ottomans. The Wallachian Teutons, on the other hand, will have 200 years in their back when the Ottomans come knocking on their doors.

Romanian will resemble french more in that scenario.

Or more Germanic, actually...

I like a Catholic Romania actually.

Hold on guys, Romania as we know it might not exist in such a timeline. Take a look on the old Prussians for an example.

I mean, I feel sorry for the poor Orthodox Vlachs living under the Teutons. There are some rough times ahead of them.

 

[Elfwine]

Well, let's say Brandenburg-Prussia ... as for the Ottomans, the Teutons would need to survive the Mongols first, so let's not go so far ahead.

Makes sense.

Well, for starters, Wallachia was a young state when it met the Ottomans. The Wallachian Teutons, on the other hand, will have 200 years in their back when the Ottomans come knocking on their doors.

And the ERE has even longer. So?

I mean, I would be willing to accept that Teutonia would be stronger than OTL Wallachia. But I'm not sure it would be enough stronger to make any difference - what kind of army is it going to have? How good is that army?

That's going to be more of an issue than whether or not the state has a longer or shorter history.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Hold on guys, Romania as we know it might not exist in such a timeline. Take a look on the old Prussians for an example.

I mean, I feel sorry for the poor Orthodox Vlachs living under the Teutons. There are some rough times ahead of them.

Good points. In fact a Romanian identity is quite new.

For much of its existence Prussia got so many lucky breaks - secularization allowed it to be tied into the hereditary monarchic milieu of Europe, succession laws going favorably meant uniting with an electorate, which by their nature dominated parts of Germany, getting the right rulers at the right time...

 

[thrashing_mad]

I mean, I would be willing to accept that Teutonia would be stronger than OTL Wallachia. But I'm not sure it would be enough stronger to make any difference - what kind of army is it going to have? How good is that army?

Better fortifications, bigger manpower (German migrants), better economy due to growth of cities, foreign knights joining/supporting army during war. Basically same things that allowed early spectacular growth of Teutonic Order in OTL, where they managed to turn backwater forested/swampy Prussia that was full of belligerent Pagans, into populous state with good army, able to resist and expand into much bigger Lithuania and Poland (Samogitia, Pomerelia, Kuyavia at TO's height).

 

[Paraipan]

And the ERE has even longer. So?

I mean, I would be willing to accept that Teutonia would be stronger than OTL Wallachia. But I'm not sure it would be enough stronger to make any difference - what kind of army is it going to have? How good is that army?

That's going to be more of an issue than whether or not the state has a longer or shorter history.

Looking at the OTL Teutons, their army was pretty good, I think. Highly professional, well trained, well equiped, also western nobles often fought for the Knights, as for Wallachia, their army was made up by poorly trained, poorly equiped, somewhat undisciplined peasants and a handfull of boyars. Their limited succes over the Ottomans, was due to great leadership and cunning tactics (see all great battles in Romanian history).

About the ERE, I don't think that's a good point, at all. We all know, I think, the state of the Byzantine Empire, in it's last couple of centuries. When I was talking about the 200 years of the Teutons in Romania, I was trying to point out the strong feudal system they might developed, unlike the Principality of Wallachia.

 

[Elfwine]

Better fortifications, bigger manpower (German migrants), better economy due to growth of cities, foreign knights joining/supporting army during war. Basically same things that allowed early spectacular growth of Teutonic Order in OTL, where they managed to turn backwater forested/swampy Prussia that was full of belligerent Pagans, into populous state with good army, able to resist and expand into much bigger Lithuania and Poland (Samogitia, Pomerelia, Kuyavia at TO's height).

Which got stomped on by something considerably less impressive than the Ottoman army.

 

[Paraipan]

Better fortifications, bigger manpower (German migrants), better economy due to growth of cities, foreign knights joining/supporting army during war. Basically same things that allowed early spectacular growth of Teutonic Order in OTL, where they managed to turn backwater forested/swampy Prussia that was full of belligerent Pagans, into populous state with good army, able to resist and expand into much bigger Lithuania and Poland (Samogitia, Pomerelia, Kuyavia at TO's height).

Exactly.

Which got stomped on by something considerably less impressive than the Ottoman army.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Teutons could drive the Ottomans out of Europe, but I think they stand a better chance of surviving than Wallachia (without vassalization, of course).

 

[thrashing_mad]

Which got stomped on by something considerably less impressive than the Ottoman army.

Less impressive? Different perhaps. Not sure what period you have in mind, but while Polish army of 15th century was typically western-european, Lithuania was similar to Ottoman army in many respects (lots of light and heavy horse archers, Tatar auxiliaries). No equivalent of Janissaries though.

But the point is that if you compare Teutonic Order to Wallachia (both states emerged almost at the same time), knights did better in almost every aspect.

 

[Elfwine]

Looking at the OTL Teutons, their army was pretty good, I think. Highly professional, well trained, well equiped, also western nobles often fought for the Knights, as for Wallachia, their army was made up by poorly trained, poorly equiped, somewhat undisciplined peasants and a handfull of boyars. Their limited succes over the Ottomans, was due to great leadership and cunning tactics (see all great battles in Romanian history).

About the ERE, I don't think that's a good point, at all. We all know, I think, the state of the Byzantine Empire, in it's last couple of centuries. When I was talking about the 200 years of the Teutons in Romania, I was trying to point out the strong feudal system they might developed, unlike the Principality of Wallachia.

The point is that the state's development isn't necessarily enough to mean very much in the area that will matter (just as the ERE having a far longer history didn't do it any good).

I don't know very much about what the Order used for the bulk of its manpower, but I'd be surprised if the average footsoldier is much better trained or equipped.

And even more so for it to it matter.

Certainly Teutonia ("The Monastic State of the Order of the Teutonic Knights of Saint Mary of Jerusalem" is a bit of a mouthful, and we don't have a better name handy, do we?) will be stronger than Wallachia, but Hungary was also stronger, and it fell easily.

I think there's an excellent potential story here, with an interesting little nation developing, but I think its just as much Ottoman chow as the OTL state/s present.

Assuming that for instance a strong Teutonia doesn't decide to send a force to stomp on the Ottomans early, or something (in the early 1300s) which is not unbelievable.

 

[Elfwine]

Less impressive? Different perhaps. Not sure what period you have in mind, but while Polish army of 15th century was typically western-european, Lithuania was similar to Ottoman army in many respects (lots of light and heavy horse archers, Tatar auxiliaries). No equivalent of Janissaries though.

But the point is that if you compare Teutonic Order to Wallachia (both states emerged almost at the same time), knights did better in almost every aspect.

Less impressive: I'll put it this way, look at the conquests of the Ottoman Empire, then compare the achievements of Poland-Lithuania.

Professional army vs. feudal army.

It is not an unjust slight to the latter to say the Ottoman army was its superior.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Less impressive: I'll put it this way, look at the conquests of the Ottoman Empire, then compare the achievements of Poland-Lithuania.

Professional army vs. feudal army.

It is not an unjust slight to the latter to say the Ottoman army was its superior.

This is exactly why the 16th century was a great time for the Sublime Porte: It had one of Europe's first professional armies (Matthias Corvinus tried having one in Hungary, but the Black Army was disbanded after his death because it was expensive), allowing it to plow through the disunited Balkans.

 

[Paraipan]

No one argues that the Ottomans would still be better than whatever state is in OTL Wallachia. But Teutonia, might stand a chance of not being vassalized for 400 years as Wallachia.

 

[Elfwine]

No one argues that the Ottomans would still be better than whatever state is in OTL Wallachia. But Teutonia, might stand a chance of not being vassalized for 400 years as Wallachia.

Not unless it is able to do something to keep the Ottomans from being as strong as OTL.

I am willing to be persuaded it could resist longer. But there's not much it has to do more, no matter how successful.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

It's also worth noting that the Duchy of Prussia still ended up a Polish vassal, though again they got lucky that they were tied to a state which was another vassal but more on paper.

 

[Valdemar II]

A interesting aspect is population replacement, in OTL in Latvia and Estonia the locals converted rather fast and as result we saw a small German nobility, clergy and burgher class rule over a native peasantry. The Romanians seemed much more stubborn in their faith, so we will likely see something like Prussia, where the locals ended up replaced, driven out or assimilated by the German and Polish settlers. But the question is where will the ones who "choose" to leave go?

I could see them being pushed across the Donau into Serbia and Bulgaria, while the Teutonics will likely push on, both the Serbian Carpathians and the Balkan Mountains would be a good defensive positions. Of course the pushing of Romanians may result in the Serbs and Bulgarians being pushed south.

 

[Paraipan]

And we're not talking about pure military strenght here. An able Hochmeister can easily maneveur around Hungary (or the Habsburgs), Poland and the Ottomans, exactly like the Wallachian voivodes. Today his the vassal of the Ottomans, but tommorow he swears loyalty to the Polish King ...

 

[Paraipan]

A interesting aspect is population replacement, in OTL in Latvia and Estonia the locals converted rather fast and as result we saw a small German nobility, clergy and burgher class rule over a native peasantry. The Romanians seemed much more stubborn in their faith, so we will likely see something like Prussia, where the locals ended up replaced, driven out or assimilated by the German and Polish settlers. But the question is where will the ones who "choose" to leave go?

I could see them being pushed across the Donau into Serbia and Bulgaria, while the Teutonics will likely push on, both the Serbian Carpathians and the Balkan Mountains would be a good defensive positions. Of course the pushing of Romanians may result in the Serbs and Bulgarians being pushed south.

Interesting point. Northern Greece is another posibility, as by this time there already are Vlach populations there.

 

[thrashing_mad]

Less impressive: I'll put it this way, look at the conquests of the Ottoman Empire, then compare the achievements of Poland-Lithuania.

Professional army vs. feudal army.

It is not an unjust slight to the latter to say the Ottoman army was its superior.

Yeah, conquests were less impressive but Teutonic Knights, Golden Horde or Muscovy were tougher enemies than, say - Albania, Serbia, Wallachia or Moldavia. Prussia, Courland, Livonia, or large parts of Russia and Ukraine, were still quite significant acquirements of P-L, and by late 16th century it's army was pretty superior in Eastern Europe (ability to rise it, or conduct centralised rule when it comes to foreign policy is another matter).

 

[Elfwine]

Yeah, conquests were less impressive but Teutonic Knights, Golden Horde or Muscovy were tougher enemies than, say - Albania, Serbia, Wallachia or Moldavia. Prussia, Courland, Livonia, or large parts of Russia and Ukraine, were still quite significant acquirements of P-L, and by late 16th century it's army was pretty superior in Eastern Europe.

I note how you don't list, for instance, the Habsburgs. Or Egypt.

Or Persia.

Also, by the point of Poland-Lithuania: The Golden Horde is a faded power to put it as charitably as possible.

 

[thrashing_mad]

I note how you don't list, for instance, Egypt.

Or Persia.

Yeah, point taken.