WI: The Tanker War Gets Worse

In 1987-8, the US and Iran had a series of rather minor kerfluffels that were mostly a side show to the Iran-Iraq War.

Right around the same time, the 1987 Mecca Massacre happened, where several hundred Iranian Hajji pilgrims got killed.

So, what if...

1) On 8/24, rather than the SS Bridgeton hits a mine, the IRGC fires off some of their brand new Silkworms. They get really lucky and damage one of the USN escorts. And instead of damaging the SS bridgeton, they hit the SS Gas Prince (LNG carrier) causing a massive explsion. The US retaliates with airstrikes on the Silkworm batteries.

2) Due to the tensions following the above, the Saudis ban the controversial political demonstrations the Iranians wanted to hold during the Haj. Just as happened. OTL, rumors that the Iranians want to seize the Grand Mosque spread. Saudi security is on high alert. The Iranians defiantly try and stage a protest and Saudi security really cracks down. More people get killed than did OTL.

3) Just as happened in OTL, enraged mobs storm the Saudi and Kuwaiti embassies in Tehran. Not only do they find evidence that Kuwait has been spying for Iraq, but so have the Saudis.

And, to add to the fun, remember that Hezbollah Al-Hejaz (AKA Saudi Hezbollah) is just getting up and running. OTL, they bombed a refinery in September 1987.

So, what happens next.

I can easily see a vicious spiral of escalating tit for tat attacks, but how far does it go? Iran can't push too far and risk an all out war.

Other, broader effects...
Black Monday was partially sparked by OTL events in the Gulf. This could trigger it sooner and make it worse. Maybe the early 90s recession comes sooner? That likely gives the Dems the WH in 88 - especially if someone better tham Dukakis runs. Mario Cuomo seems obvious, but Sam Nunn, Bill Bradley, or Lloyd Bentsen would all be solid. Lee Iacoca might be am interesting choice...

It's going to really hurt Japan. If it gets bad, the bubble bursts much earlier.

OTOH, it might help the Soviets. The oil glut hurt their oil and gas income and contributed to the events of 1989. A Gulf crisis won't keep them from falling, but it could prolong it and make it messier.
 
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