WI the First Moroccan Crisis or Tangier Crisis escalated into war?
I've been doing some perusing on older threads concerning the subject and there seems to be something of a consensus that Germany would lose, but I have my doubts.
Germany would indeed be attacking the fortified French borders as the Von Schlieffen Plan hadn't been developed yet (while France is operating on the defensive Plan XV at this time) and would probably suffer serious losses as a result, but I think numbers would eventually win the day. This is all the more likely because Germany can throw its entire weight against France: Russia is still in revolutionary turmoil as a result of the Russo-Japanese War and isn't going to fight lest Nicky wants to see his dynasty overthrown.
The main remaining argument for German defeat would then be the inevitable British naval blockade which the High Seas Fleet is in no position to break, even less so than they were in WW I (no U-boat branch yet). Considering the Haber process hasn't been invented yet and won't be for another few years, this means Germany would run out of nitrates sooner or later.
My main beef with that argument is that it ignores one thing: Germany need not import nitrates by sea. Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Italy and the Balkan countries are all neutrals and can function as economic windpipes. Sure, some might agree to not sell nitrates to Germany, and others could be bullied into complying by threat of blockade if they don't comply (which isn't going to win Britain any brownie points, certainly not after the PR debacle that was the last Boer War) such as Denmark. I could ironically see Belgium not complying because it'd be in violation of its neutral status; the Netherlands also might not because they're quite pro-German in this period of time.
I suppose said small countries can be blockaded. But what of Italy? She's is going to ride out this war as a neutral, probably (I don't see them wanting to risk their economic growth and monetary stability, unless they can make some gains for minimal effort). I don't see Britain blockading them, as they would risk bringing Italy to side with Germany, to the detriment of France. The Balkan states are a toss up (except Serbia) seeing how they have nothing at stake in what is essentially a Franco-German War (with some British assistance).
Thoughts? Suggestions? Opinions?
I've been doing some perusing on older threads concerning the subject and there seems to be something of a consensus that Germany would lose, but I have my doubts.
Germany would indeed be attacking the fortified French borders as the Von Schlieffen Plan hadn't been developed yet (while France is operating on the defensive Plan XV at this time) and would probably suffer serious losses as a result, but I think numbers would eventually win the day. This is all the more likely because Germany can throw its entire weight against France: Russia is still in revolutionary turmoil as a result of the Russo-Japanese War and isn't going to fight lest Nicky wants to see his dynasty overthrown.
The main remaining argument for German defeat would then be the inevitable British naval blockade which the High Seas Fleet is in no position to break, even less so than they were in WW I (no U-boat branch yet). Considering the Haber process hasn't been invented yet and won't be for another few years, this means Germany would run out of nitrates sooner or later.
My main beef with that argument is that it ignores one thing: Germany need not import nitrates by sea. Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Italy and the Balkan countries are all neutrals and can function as economic windpipes. Sure, some might agree to not sell nitrates to Germany, and others could be bullied into complying by threat of blockade if they don't comply (which isn't going to win Britain any brownie points, certainly not after the PR debacle that was the last Boer War) such as Denmark. I could ironically see Belgium not complying because it'd be in violation of its neutral status; the Netherlands also might not because they're quite pro-German in this period of time.
I suppose said small countries can be blockaded. But what of Italy? She's is going to ride out this war as a neutral, probably (I don't see them wanting to risk their economic growth and monetary stability, unless they can make some gains for minimal effort). I don't see Britain blockading them, as they would risk bringing Italy to side with Germany, to the detriment of France. The Balkan states are a toss up (except Serbia) seeing how they have nothing at stake in what is essentially a Franco-German War (with some British assistance).
Thoughts? Suggestions? Opinions?