A military victory of the Tamils under LTTE was not plausible due to various factors. This was possible only with the full and open support of India as in the case of Bangladesh. But Srilanka was not Pakistan and Veluppillai Prabhakaran was not Sheikh Mujib-ur Rehman. Unlike Pakistan, Srilanka was a friendly state with whom India always had friendly relations. There were certain mutual disputes as in the case of any neighboring countries, but they were all unimportant.
The problems of Tamil minority in Srilanka were serious and the Sinhala politicians did not exhibit the required ability or willingness to seek solutions. When peaceful protests led by the Tamil political parties were put down by force, the armed groups made their appearance. The leadership slipped out from the hands of moderate Tamil leaders and was taken up by an extremist like Prabhakaran. Prabhakaran had the backing of the Tamil politicians in Tamilnadu like M.G.Ramachandran, former T.N. Chief Minister. But the Govt. of India was not ready to extend its support. But then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi could not alienate the people of Tamilnadu and she too paid some lip service in the initial period. When Rajiv Gandhi became the P.M. there was great pressure on him from Tamilnadu. Then J.R.Jayawardene was the Srilankan President and an India-Srilanka accord was signed which called for ceasefire between LTTE and Srilankan Army and also for constitutional changes to bring about autonomy for Tamils in a united Srilanka. An Indian Peace Keeping Force was also deployed in the Tamil majority areas of Srilanka to implement the accord. The LTTE and the nationalist Sinhala politicians were against the accord. Soon the LTTE turned their guns against the IPKF. When Rajiv Gandhi lost the elections in India and Jayawardene stepped down and Ranasinghe Premadasa, who was against the accord became the President in Srilanka, the accord was dead. The IPKF was called back and the civil war resumed. The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE, turned the Government and the people of India, including those in Tamilnadu against LTTE. Though the Srilankan Govt. under President Chandrika Kumaratunge put several proposals for peace, the LTTE was not prepared to negotiate. When Mahinda Rajapakse became the President he went for a total allout war against the LTTE. The LTTE with its overconfidence and suicidal actions dug its own grave and met its expected demise in 2009. Prabhakaran was not ready to settle for autonomy and his goal of an independent Tamil Eelam was not practical. India would never have allowed it even if Srilanka had agreed, as it would be a dangerous precedent for Tamils in India.