WI the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was more successful?

Or could a rump Qing become a Russian vassal instead? If we're aiming for a possible Dayan Mongol state, can they make the Qing as a Mongol vassal instead?

I doubt the Mongols still have that power (IOTL, AFAIK, they didn't really try to intervene in China anyway during the 19th century), and about the Russians: as already said here, Europeans (including prob. the Russians) would prefer to leave control of China as indirect as possible, so while there might be Russian influence in the Imperial Court, a full on Russian vassal? No. Also, while the first foreign permanent embassy in Beijing was, indeed, Russian, I don't think the Russians at that point really have the power to extend so much influence over China. I think it's likely that, if a new dynasty deposes the Qing, the Aisin Gioro clan would run back to Manchuria, and basically be left only with that. Manchuria will, then, become a Russian vassal.
 
I really don't think Muslim Warlords can get as far as Beijing. If the Taiping Rebels in all their might cannot, Hui warlords can't. Though it definitely sounds really interesting, I think the only possible scenarios are a surviving rump Qing dynasty along the Huanghe Basin, or a new dynasty (almost def. of Han Chinese origin) controlling the same borders (as was my suggestion a few posts ago).

I think they could once Qing troops beat, because they wielded strong military. I'm saying this because IMO, Taiping Rebells can't fight better against Hui Muslims in Northern China, because of Northern china Warfare is whole different than fighting in Southern China.
 
I doubt the Mongols still have that power (IOTL, AFAIK, they didn't really try to intervene in China anyway during the 19th century), and about the Russians: as already said here, Europeans (including prob. the Russians) would prefer to leave control of China as indirect as possible, so while there might be Russian influence in the Imperial Court, a full on Russian vassal? No. Also, while the first foreign permanent embassy in Beijing was, indeed, Russian, I don't think the Russians at that point really have the power to extend so much influence over China. I think it's likely that, if a new dynasty deposes the Qing, the Aisin Gioro clan would run back to Manchuria, and basically be left only with that. Manchuria will, then, become a Russian vassal.

Mongols had very formidable military in mid 1850's. Sengge Rinchen forces consisted of mostly Mongol Cavalry, which was one of the most powerful military union in Qing before modernization of Army. They could stop Taiping Rebel march toward Beijing and also could beat French-British force.
As I said before fighting in cold Mongolian and Manchurian Plain will be very hard to Southern Taiping Rebels, so Mongols certainly could win against OTL Taiping Rebels.

Is Mongolia can make Qing Dynasty under them? Yes it might or it might not.
Around 1860's Greater Mongolia will have population of close to 3 million. Southern Manchuria will have population of 2 million plus 1,0 million on Northern Manchuria (mostly Nomads and semi Mongolia-Manchurian tribes like Barga). So its toss-up. But with Qing is militarily crushed and Mongolians having more formidable military it could somehow control the rump Qing in Manchuria. However final say will be on Russian Empire.
 
Assuming that the Mongols do get a coast line, could they modernize on a similar scale to Meiji Japan or Chulalungkorn Siam?

No they can't.
Mongols will be very open to any idea, they won't resist radical changes.
IMO only way to be successful Mongolia need stalinist Dictator. Then send some millions of Chinese to GULAG'esque labour camp. Using this slave worker, coupled with huge investment Mongolia achieve Industrialization par with OTL Manchuria.
 
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And the Mongols have limited potential due to a huge amount of land that has no resources to discover during this time, and agriculture is questionable.
 
IMO only way to be successful Mongolia need stalinist Dictator. Then send some millions of Chinese to GULAG'esque labour camp. Using this slave worker, coupled with huge investment Mongolia achieve Industrialization par with OTL Manchuria.
 
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