WI the Sverdlov conspiracy theory is real - and succeeds

Tocomocho

I caught a program a couple of nights ago defending a theory that basically boils to:

- Fanny Kaplan was a patsy who might not even been there to shoot Lenin in 1918.

- Lenin's assasination was planned by Yakov Sverdlov (who had Kaplan arrested in a cell directly bellow his own office and executed her just 3 days after, something very irregular), who would blame the Social Revolutionaries (as it happened IOTL) and assume control of the Bolkshevisks in Lenin's absence. However, Lenin survived with only minor wounds IOTL (a different talking head proposed that Sverdlov wanted Lenin to survive and only tried to incapacitate him, however this would be so risky and prone to failure as to be deemed nonsensical).

- Sverdlov wanted to denounce the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and resume war with the CPs as soon as he was leader of the Soviets.

- Sverdlov's death of the Spanish Flu in 1919 (the only top Bolkshevisk to fall victim of it) was not such, he was actually murdered because his part in the Kaplan affair was discovered (though not necessarily by Lenin himself).

It might be absurd. But let's roll with that. Sverdlov has Lenin killed.

1) Does anyone (Trotsky? Stalin?) dispute Sverdlov's ascension? Is he successful?

2) Assuming Sverdlov finds no opposition (or crushes it) and reenters WW1, how much does this change the end of the war and the postwar? Does Sverdlov go to Versailles?
 

Karelian

Lenin was happy and eager to bring Bolshevik Russia into ever-closer cooperation with Imperial Germany after B-L Treaty, based on his firm conviction that a socialist revolution in Germany would be only a matter of time. This butterflies away the Western need for the interventions of 1918 to Russia, since there wouldn't be a need to deny the resources of Russia from the Kaiser and create a new Eastern Front - thus the White armies in Russia wouldn't receive as much support as per OTL either.

On the other hand this means that German forces will march on to Petrograd and capture the former capitol, driving the Bolshevik regime to Moscow. They were within striking distance at modern Estonia and Finland, and the German military was only waiting for an excuse to push Russia away from the Baltic completely. This is a major and interesting change in itself: and when the Germans surrender, who will take over in Petrograd? With the former capitol in their hands, the quarreling White factions and various SR groups (Greens) might have a better shot in forming a unified opposition against the Bolsheviks.

After the German surrender the Allies would still most likely view the Bolshevik regime with deep suspicion, and the question of imperial Russian debts would still be a major obstacle for early detente between the Bolsheviks and Western powers after the German capitulation.
 

Carl Schwamberger

Where was Sverdlov economically? Post war what direction might the Soviets go in terms of collectivisation ect... What about foreign policy, would he have been still trying to push international revolution?
 

Napoleon IV

David T said:
This makes no sense at all given Sverdlov's strong support of Brest-Litovsk: "A decisive factor in getting the CEC to accept the Brest-Litovsk treaty was Sverdlov's unswerving support for Lenin's position. He refused Bolshevik members a free vote and reminded them of their duty to observe 'discipline and unity'." https://books.google.com/books?id=7cbKAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA26
Click to expand...
Another big problem is Kaplan's execution wasn't that suspicious. It quickly became clear that she wouldn't name any accomplices, and since the Bolsheviks were very confident that she had shot Lenin (although it's possible she may have been covering for another Socialist Revolutionary) the Cheka (who interrogated her, which would make it even more risky for Sverdlov if he set her up) shot her.
 

eliphas8

This whole idea doesn't make any sense for a lot of reasons, first and foremost being that the actual reality of what happened makes absolutely perfect sense and is backed up by the history of the SR's and their normal tactics. I mean, for one thing why would he frame the party in favor of continuing the war (and by the way, the only party the Bolsheviks could bring to coalition with themselves ever), when this would be something where in any serious scenario he would require the help of the Left SR's to continue the war with Germany. Second, the SR's as a party had been sponsors of terrorism going back decades, stemming from their roots in the Russian Populist movement which assassinated Alexander II, as far as the Left SRs were concerned Brest Litovsk was an act of treason against Russia and it led to them walking out of their initial coalition with the Bolsheviks, and then to the acts of Frannie Kaplan in attempting to murder Lenin. Furthermore the circumstances of her imprisonment and execution make just as much sense if you assume it's because she's a figure that would obviously be subject to a lot of hatred for trying to kill Lenin, someone who commands a deep personal loyalty among most of the Bolsheviks. The spanish flu thing can also be put safely down to coincidence, more easily associated with the fact that of the senior Bolshevik leadership him and Bukharin where the two youngest members, thus placing them among the category that were already most in danger from the disease.
 

eliphas8

Were this a real plot? He'd quickly find himself pushed out of power and likely imprisoned by other leading Bolsheviks, Trotsky being the one most likely to take charge and end up in Lenin's old position. This is well before Stalin's rise to General Secretary put a question mark next to the obvious succession of Trotsky to be Chairman of the SOVNARKOM. Even if somehow it's not Trotsky, then the next pick would probably be Zinoviev. But in the days immediately after Lenin's sudden death I doubt he'd be even capable of the decisive action needed to push out Sverdlov.

It's important to remember that while Sverdlov was a rising star in the party at the time. He was popular and would likely have spent the rest of his life on the SOVNARKOM or some other party post, but he's not at the point of being able to seize control of a government that at this point still had quite a bit of it's original intended functionality.
 
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