WI the Spanish Civil War were still ongoing in August-September 1939- knock-ons for WWII?

raharris1973

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Say the Spanish Republic is still holding a large portion of eastern Spain in summer 1939 (possibly in part because of better battlefield luck, or Nationalist Spanish screw-ups). The Republic is also receiving fairly persistent and significant Soviet arms support through this time.

How does this interrelate with the German-Polish crisis, and potential Nazi-Soviet Pact and potential WWII outbreak?

Supposing the Spanish Civil War is continuing through August 1939, mainly because of improved Soviet aid, but Munich and the rape of Czecho-slovakia proceeded as in OTL, how does Spain figure in the Molotov-Ribbentropp talks, if at all?

Seems like it would be a subject of German-Soviet negotiation, even though important native Spanish and Italian interests were involved.

Germany is trying to make territorial gains at Polish expense, a British guarantee of Poland is in effect (but not entirely believed) and there are public discussions of a potential British-French-Soviet coalition to contain Nazi Germany.

Under those circumstances, to regain his diplomatic-military initiative and edge, is Hitler willing to suspend all support to Franco as part of a Molotov-Ribbentropp Pact, in return for the USSR pledging to use its influence to guarantee Spanish neutrality in any German war against Poland or the west?

Or, will the continued existence of Republican Spain be a bargaining trip Stalin trades away, pledging to cut the Spanish Republicans loose in return for a more favorable territorial settlement in Central Europe than OTL's Molotov Ribbentropp Pact [for example, Soviet domination over Lithuanian *and* central or ex-Russian Poland as part of the deal, or Soviet domination over Romania?]

This potential nuance has never been brought up in all the pre-WWII threads I've seen.
 
Franco's army would eventually defeat Republican Spain anyway. The Nationalists were more unified and well-equipped than the divided Republicans, Socialists and Anarchists. So it's only a matter of time until Franco controls all of Spain, whether the Germans and Soviets cease to intervene or not.
 

raharris1973

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Franco's army would eventually defeat Republican Spain anyway. The Nationalists were more unified and well-equipped than the divided Republicans, Socialists and Anarchists. So it's only a matter of time until Franco controls all of Spain, whether the Germans and Soviets cease to intervene or not.

OK- but, will the prolonged existence of the Spanish Republic in 1939 affect or change the Russo-German settlement of that year in any way?
 
Would German forces still be operating in Spain?

Would the Republic declare war on Germany after Britain and France do so?

It seems plausible that after the Phony War sets in on the French-German border, the Allies would intervene in Spain in late 1939.

Then if France falls, Germany would continue into Spain.

Also, if Italian forces are in Spain, that could pull Italy into the war.
 
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raharris1973

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But the main reason for its neutrality was not its terrain and size, but because it was ruled by a regime that wanted to stay neutral, held total sovereignty, and could make this stick. A country with an ongoing civil war on the other is not in any position to credibly promise its neutrality, and its factions are in a poor position to push aside "help" offered by others.
 
But the main reason for its neutrality was not its terrain and size, but because it was ruled by a regime that wanted to stay neutral, held total sovereignty, and could make this stick. A country with an ongoing civil war on the other is not in any position to credibly promise its neutrality, and its factions are in a poor position to push aside "help" offered by others.

Nor are they likely to reject such help. In fact, the Spanish Republic might declare war on Germany, hoping to involve France and Britain in spite of their reluctance to get into another war while facing Germany.

Another issue is how this would affect the Hitler-Stalin deal in summer 1939. The deal came as a stunning surprise, because Germany and the USSR had been bitter enemies, backing the opposite sides in Spain. The Comintern, at Moscow's direction, propagandized and recruited for the Republic, very noisily. But with the end of the Republic in April 1939, this activity shut down.

Stalin's August volte-face included a directive to the Comintern and its followers around the world to cease all anti-German agitation and oppose the Allied war effort. Most of them loyally obeyed; but the move would be impossibly contradictory if the USSR and the Comintern was at that moment actively engaged against Germany in Spain. It would be nearly as awkward for Germany.

One side or other would have to abandon its Spanish allies. While both regimes were quite ruthless enough to do that, either would pay a price - the USSR in its credibility around the world as a champion of "the people", Germany as an opponent of Bolshevism. (Mussolini, who had even more troops committed in Spain, would be enraged.)

Germany might get away with it if Germany had withdrawn all its forces before announcing the deal; but that would require way more preparation than the OTL timing allowed.
 
It could be agreed in the Molotov-Ribbentropp talks, that both sides continue the proxy war, but both ease up on their commitments, or even suggest brokering a cease fire. So we have an exhausted Spain, split, with both sides struggling to obtain military supplies, and then WW2 starts. The Republic naturally try's to cuddle up to France, Franco remains neutral, German advisors gone, and a withdrawing of Italian troops.

Spin it on to June 1940, and Franco joins the Axis, getting the help to crush Republican Spain. In return he agrees to the siege and later capturing of Gibraltar. Italy jumps right in with further aid and troops, Hitler sends the Luftwaffe. Churchill supports "any enemy of my enemy, is a friend of mine" Republic Spain, but she falls anyway.

Western Med now closed! Could Malta still be held?

Late 1942 Spanish North Africa also taken along with French North Africa in Operation Torch.

Question, do the Allies invade Spain, or just bypass?
 
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