Say the Spanish Republic is still holding a large portion of eastern Spain in summer 1939 (possibly in part because of better battlefield luck, or Nationalist Spanish screw-ups). The Republic is also receiving fairly persistent and significant Soviet arms support through this time.
How does this interrelate with the German-Polish crisis, and potential Nazi-Soviet Pact and potential WWII outbreak?
Supposing the Spanish Civil War is continuing through August 1939, mainly because of improved Soviet aid, but Munich and the rape of Czecho-slovakia proceeded as in OTL, how does Spain figure in the Molotov-Ribbentropp talks, if at all?
Seems like it would be a subject of German-Soviet negotiation, even though important native Spanish and Italian interests were involved.
Germany is trying to make territorial gains at Polish expense, a British guarantee of Poland is in effect (but not entirely believed) and there are public discussions of a potential British-French-Soviet coalition to contain Nazi Germany.
Under those circumstances, to regain his diplomatic-military initiative and edge, is Hitler willing to suspend all support to Franco as part of a Molotov-Ribbentropp Pact, in return for the USSR pledging to use its influence to guarantee Spanish neutrality in any German war against Poland or the west?
Or, will the continued existence of Republican Spain be a bargaining trip Stalin trades away, pledging to cut the Spanish Republicans loose in return for a more favorable territorial settlement in Central Europe than OTL's Molotov Ribbentropp Pact [for example, Soviet domination over Lithuanian *and* central or ex-Russian Poland as part of the deal, or Soviet domination over Romania?]
This potential nuance has never been brought up in all the pre-WWII threads I've seen.
How does this interrelate with the German-Polish crisis, and potential Nazi-Soviet Pact and potential WWII outbreak?
Supposing the Spanish Civil War is continuing through August 1939, mainly because of improved Soviet aid, but Munich and the rape of Czecho-slovakia proceeded as in OTL, how does Spain figure in the Molotov-Ribbentropp talks, if at all?
Seems like it would be a subject of German-Soviet negotiation, even though important native Spanish and Italian interests were involved.
Germany is trying to make territorial gains at Polish expense, a British guarantee of Poland is in effect (but not entirely believed) and there are public discussions of a potential British-French-Soviet coalition to contain Nazi Germany.
Under those circumstances, to regain his diplomatic-military initiative and edge, is Hitler willing to suspend all support to Franco as part of a Molotov-Ribbentropp Pact, in return for the USSR pledging to use its influence to guarantee Spanish neutrality in any German war against Poland or the west?
Or, will the continued existence of Republican Spain be a bargaining trip Stalin trades away, pledging to cut the Spanish Republicans loose in return for a more favorable territorial settlement in Central Europe than OTL's Molotov Ribbentropp Pact [for example, Soviet domination over Lithuanian *and* central or ex-Russian Poland as part of the deal, or Soviet domination over Romania?]
This potential nuance has never been brought up in all the pre-WWII threads I've seen.