WI: The Soviets see Barbarossa coming?

Deleted member 1487

And it is liable to apply IOTL for the Soviets in Belarus as well, given the strengthening of existing formations and their redeployment to more appropriate defensive positions. Again, you seem to pretend that the Soviets won't redeploy their formations into something more appropriate to meet the oncoming German assault as a part of their additional preparations.
Consider that IOTL Stalin misidentified the main attack of the German invasion, which was in Belarus, but he put the majority of his armor in Ukraine. More troops are likely to be pilled into Ukraine and extra troops in Belarus are likely to be just infantry.


Leaving aside that is not what happened at Vyazma-Bryansk at all, no it is not. The initial draft of the OTL MP-41 was ready by March 1st and the penultimate draft was finished May 1941. It was implemented on June 22nd in response to the German invasion and proceeded to generate many of the reserve armies the Germans hit over the course of July and August.
Most of what was left by September was milita and all that was left to mobilize was infantry, you're not putting formations that are able to counter Panzers into the region.

What will be true ITTL is that the German forces are much more exhausted and weaker due to having to spend significant amounts of time actually fighting through Soviet defensive lines further west on account that those formations in the border region are actually ready to fight, instead of thinking that their still at peace. It's the difference between trying to club a guy who is fully awake and alert over the head versus trying to club him while he is still asleep.
They break them with assaults and penetrate deep with Panzers, cutting them off and leaving them to wither on the vine. The extra troops you're mobilizing are reservist infantry with virtually no prepared leadership thanks to the purges, expansion, reorganization, etc. Any truncated planning is not going to see them well trained or organized, nor well equipped.

Also, German logistical problems are going to be exacerbated by the fact the Soviets will have the time to prep tons more demolitions in Belarus and the Baltics, meaning the Germans could be stretching their logistics as badly by the time they reach Minsk as they were at Smolensk IOTL.
I already conceded the Germans won't get much passed Smolensk and will do their killing west of Viazma.
 
Consider that IOTL Stalin misidentified the main attack of the German invasion, which was in Belarus, but he put the majority of his armor in Ukraine. More troops are likely to be pilled into Ukraine and extra troops in Belarus are likely to be just infantry.

Yeah, there won't be any reassessment of German dispositions or the redeployment of the 10th and 4th army to less exposed positions or anything of that nature as part of the Soviets extra preparations. :rolleyes: Again, you seem to think that the only things the Soviets could and would have done was "add more men".

Most of what was left by September was milita and all that was left to mobilize was infantry, you're not putting formations that are able to counter Panzers into the region.
The forces the Soviets had in the Moscow region on the opening of Operation Typhoon consisted of 104 rifle divisions equipped with (in addition to small arms) 11,000+ artillery pieces and mortars as well as 4,000+ AFVs (almost entirely armored cars though, although there is the occasional obsolete T-26 or T-38 in there). And I'm ignoring the 17 tank brigades with another 1,000 AFVs (most of which are actually tanks this time around) and the 61 various artillery regiments outfitted with a little over 1,800 guns of 122mm or more. The only part that was really "militia" about most of these forces was their degree of training.

They break them with assaults and penetrate deep with Panzers, cutting them off and leaving them to wither on the vine.
Ultimately, yes. It's just that doing so will take significantly longer and be more costly, and the Soviets will be better able to launch counterattacks or pull back in response to the breaches. As I said: overrunning positions that are actually manned with people ready to fight is a lot harder then overrunning unmanned positions with their personnel still asleep several miles away.

I already conceded the Germans won't get much passed Smolensk and will do their killing west of Viazma.
And their dying. Not getting much passed Smolensk also doesn't leave them in much of a position to enact the Kiev encirclement, which leaves the Soviets in possession of all their prime industrial regions as well as another million-to-million-and-a-half troops, some of which are their best trained and equipped. This all makes 1942 a very bad year to be a German on the Eastern Front.
 
Last edited:
It appears, as always, that wiking is the leader of the uninformedprogerman group.

You just don't seen to uderstand how Soviet forces would have reacted. You need to read the staff works after the wargames in the Kremlin late 40 and in April 41. Soviets were perfectly aware of their deficiencies and took HUGE steps to correct them.

Here is a small effect of the warning:
- all the soviet artillery was not deployed, all amm stock was in long term storage. Delay needed for set up and distributions: from a few hours to 3 days.
- deploy border guard units and implemet the destruction plan (bridges...). Delay: a few hours once the order is given
- deploy planes in the planned alternative airfields. Delay: one day but you need 3+ weeks to deploys related units (ammunition..)
- global tank overhaul: 2 weeks to 2 months. Will x2 the number of available tanks
- Concentrate forces in planned areas: same time as OTL but they will have time to recover from road losses. Delay needed: 1 to 2 weeks

1/ Soviets EXPECTED border units to be destroyed, it's called a first echelin force. Any reinforcement would have NOT gone there. They would have been deployed and given more ammo and so on. They would have been really hard to move.
2/ They understood the tank penetration problem and created Anti Tank brigades (100+ !!! AT from 45mm to 90mm). They thought that they had time to train and deploy them. 2 were planned per front to defend major axes. They were planned to de deployed EXACTLY where germans attacked. Well Soviets were not perfect but the number of good roads was really limited.
3/ plants, stocks... were planned to be removed from the border.
4/ The strategic plan was to slow down Germans using first echelon forces, to fall back on the second one and to counter-attack using deep battle concepts (basically an operational plan). Germans would have been unable to counter this one. Historically the plan failed as the first echelon failed to slow them enough time. The 2nd echelon was planned to deploy 200-300km from the first one IIRW (i don't have the document at hand)
 
Top