Maybe a more interesting question is, does a Soviet invasion of Poland strengthen the reformists or the hardliners in Moscow? Because that's what will determine when communism falls.
In anything but the shortest run, it will weaken the hardliners, because even under the most optimistic scenario, it just adds to the economic strain the USSR is going through, makes the international environment even more hostile, etc. By the mid-1980s the feeling that "we can't go on like this" will if anything be stronger than in OTL.
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