WI: The Soviet Union takes Hokkaido?

The Manhattan Project is delayed until October, and Japan nuclear bombed in November (rather than carrying out Operation Downfall) and Japan surrenders in late November or December. However, this delay enabled the Soviet Union to invade and take Hokkaido.

Would the Soviets be able to keep the Island after the treaty? If so, what's its' fate; annexed by the Soviet Union or a puppet state? In either case, how would this affect the Cold War? In particular, how would Japan treat the situation? What happens after the Cold War, assuming that the Soviet falls similar to OTL?
 

SsgtC

Banned
How? The USSR had minimal amphibious assets. Anything they could get to Hokkaido, the Japanese could handle.

This is just my opinion, but I think the USSR focuses more on mainland "liberation." Maybe they take all of the Korean Peninsula instead of splitting it with the US.
 
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How? The USSR had minimal amphibious assets. Anything they could get to Hokkaido, the Japanese could handle.

Nah, it's entirely possible, if unlikely, that the Soviets could have mopped up Manchuria-Korea by November and been in a position to land on the island. They had enough assets to do it, although success would have required some things to happen... or not happen as the case might be. So there's nothing about the OP that's.

So to actually deal with the OP, the only thing I can really predict is that if the Soviets hold onto the island and don't give it back in exchange for concessions elsewhere or something it'll encourage the Soviet Union to build up and ocean going navy sooner and faster.
 
Nah, it's entirely possible, if unlikely, that the Soviets could have mopped up Manchuria-Korea by November and been in a position to land on the island. They had enough assets to do it, although success would have required some things to happen... or not happen as the case might be. So there's nothing about the OP that's.

So to actually deal with the OP, the only thing I can really predict is that if the Soviets hold onto the island and don't give it back in exchange for concessions elsewhere or something it'll encourage the Soviet Union to build up and ocean going navy sooner and faster.

I don't envy anyone trying to conduct an amphibious landing in winter on a shoe string budget and a quickly expiring deadline to take the island.
 
What if instead of invading and securing Manchuria and Korea first, the Soviets launch their assault with a surprise attack directly at Hokkaido? This catches the Japanese off guard and ensures the Soviets have part of the Home Islands under their control before the Japanese can surrender to the Americans. Manchuria and Korea are dealt with approximately the same as OTL since the US cannot project forces into mainland Asia at the moment, particularly north east asia
 
How? The USSR had minimal amphibious assets. Anything they could get to Hokkaido, the Japanese could handle.

This is just my opinion, but I think the USSR focuses more on mainland "liberation." Maybe they take all of the Korean Peninsula instead of splitting it with the US.

I remember an old thread here which pointed out the Japanese had so little on Hokkaido the Soviets could easily just parachute a brigade or two in, capture a seaport, and then bring in whatever they wanted. I’m fuzzy on the details, though.
 
I don't envy anyone trying to conduct an amphibious landing in winter on a shoe string budget and a quickly expiring deadline to take the island.

I wouldn't exactly describe it as "shoe string"... more "thin ropes". It is still a far cry from the "giant steel girder" that was an American amphibious landing budget. And technically, the Soviets just need to have forces ashore and a beachhead established to be able to take control of the island by the time the surrender comes down, they don't need to completely crush the Japanese like they would if fighting didn't end.

I remember an old thread here which pointed out the Japanese had so little on Hokkaido the Soviets could easily just parachute a brigade or two in, capture a seaport, and then bring in whatever they wanted. I’m fuzzy on the details, though.

A bit more complicated then that. The Japanese in August of '45 had two divisions and two brigades (one navy) on the island. One division and the naval brigade was oriented north to protect the Soviets trying to come down from Sakhalin and the Kuriles and the other division and brigade were defending the east coast against the possibility of American raiders. The west coast where the initial Soviet planning looked at before the surrender made it moot was largely uncovered. The only opposition would be isolated defense posts and/or village militia. The main thing that can upset a Soviet landing is if the Japanese reinforce or change their dispositions to cover the west coast. If that happens, any Soviet invasion force is in for a Very Bad Time.
 
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trurle

Banned
The Manhattan Project is delayed until October, and Japan nuclear bombed in November (rather than carrying out Operation Downfall) and Japan surrenders in late November or December. However, this delay enabled the Soviet Union to invade and take Hokkaido.

Would the Soviets be able to keep the Island after the treaty? If so, what's its' fate; annexed by the Soviet Union or a puppet state? In either case, how would this affect the Cold War? In particular, how would Japan treat the situation? What happens after the Cold War, assuming that the Soviet falls similar to OTL?
Japanese were actually pulling nearly all forces from Hokkaido, leaving token forces (~3-4 men/km) on coastal fortifications. Soviets have tried to approach Rumoi port in the night 22-23 August 1945 from submarines L-12 and L-19 (to tentatively evaluate situation and possibly land some Special Forces operatives to guide invasion fleet if the intelligence reports of transferred Japanese garrisons were true), but the plans were scraped after the submarines have encountered Japanese refugee convoy off Rumoi. The L-19 was damaged in firefight and sank under unclear circumstances soon. From the outcome of events, seems either submarines tried to attack fast convoy on surface after been unable to set intercept point (unlikely, given the heavy overload of initially slow Japanese ships) or the L-19 was detected on surface by Japanese escorts who prevented her from immediately diving by damaging her pressure hull, resulting in unusual artillery duel between surface ships and submarine.

Would the L-12 and L-19 missed the the Japanese convoy, Soviets would be tempted to grab large parts of Hokkaido nearly unopposed.
 
The Manhattan Project is delayed until October, and Japan nuclear bombed in November (rather than carrying out Operation Downfall) and Japan surrenders in late November or December. However, this delay enabled the Soviet Union to invade and take Hokkaido.

Would the Soviets be able to keep the Island after the treaty? If so, what's its' fate; annexed by the Soviet Union or a puppet state? In either case, how would this affect the Cold War? In particular, how would Japan treat the situation? What happens after the Cold War, assuming that the Soviet falls similar to OTL?

Why is the Soviet wasting time on a phib op rather than overrunning the Kwantung Army in Korea and Manchuria?
 
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If the Soviet Union takes Hokkaido and is unable or uninterested in obtaining an occupation zone in North Honshu from the Americans, I think that Stalin would decide that Hokkaido was too small to function as an independent country and that it would be a liability to have a part of Japan as a Soviet republic when the rest of the country was within the American sphere of influence. In keeping with his pattern of ethnic cleansing, which he had committed many times before, I think he would probably opt to just annex the island to the RSFSR outright, expel the entire population and resettle it with people from Russia, just like he did in East Prussia, Lwow and Crimea, among other places. This is more likely if the Soviets somehow managed to renegotiate the annexation with the Americans before the war ends (doubtful) but I think he could get away with it unilaterally as well.
 
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