WI:The Song Dynasty attempts to settle Taiwan in the mid-1260s?

I'm sorry, how?

How do these colonists get to Taiwan during the absolute nadir of the Song? How do they dominate the island and subjugate the indigenous people's there?

The idea that they'd conquer the Phillipines, Malaysia and Indonesia however defies logic. Those places are so far away from Taiwan and independent. Majapahit would wipe the floor with any Song invasion of Indonesia, much as they did the Mongol invasion - an invasion far larger than anything the Song could send.

A few thousand Song refugees on Taiwan don't need living space. They'll be motivated by revenge on the Mongols, survuval, and maybe a little light piracy.
The "Rapid Evacuation/Enclave Shadow Government" model of colonization doesn't really work, at least not as the greater part of the settlement. You would need the Song to get an interest in starting settler colonies far earlier the the 1260s in order to lay the groundwork and infrastructure to allow for further colonization. All of the optimism in the world won't save you from dying in the wilderness if you don't know how to survive. Colonization would also likely necessitate the total genocide of the Formosans.

If you can get all that, though, the odds of a Somg remnant state are actually not so bad. If groundwork exists, a mass exodus of some sort could actually be possible, which could serve to preserve their technological and industrial prowess. The Yuan will doubtless attempt to conquer it. I don't know how good the Yuan's naval capabilities were. Their attempted invasion of Japan does not inspire massive confidence. Assuming another Kamikaze occurs, the Yuan could well give up.

Taiwan is indeed a pretty fertile island with some coal that could be used to spark an industrial revolution. Potentially, assuming there is in fact a major evacuation that includes the empire's intellectuals, the pressure of the transition and the loss of manpower necessitating labor saving devices could lead to a full blown industrial revolution.

In such a scenario, you could see Somg Taiwan emerging as an early "Asian Tiger", wielding a disproportionate amount of power due to its technology and commerce. From here, it can go either one of two ways: either bide it's time and reconquer the mainland when the Yuan collapse (ala RoC Taiwan IOTL), or look south to the riches of the Indies, becoming a local Venice or perhaps Oman, one that thanks to its industrial economy invents capitalistic colonialism before the Europeans.

Both directions strikes me as highly compelling.
Considering that the Europeans and Zheng Chenggong’s forces were able to subjugate Taiwan with much less resources,the Song can probably do better. They have approximately 8 years before Xiangyang falls. This means that large parts of the empire and its’ resources would be intact in those 8 years.

Now I’m not talking about populating Taiwan with millions of Han Chinese,I’m talking about anywhere between a hundred thousand to one million. In Chinese history,there were many instances of large scale land settlement of places that used to be wilderness.
 
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The Song economy was not ready for an industrial revolution.

The Song economy was on par with that of Western Europe in the sixteenth century in terms of national market integration. That's not Industrial Revolution material at all.

I've been saying this for years.
 
The Song economy was not ready for an industrial revolution.

The Song economy was on par with that of Western Europe in the sixteenth century in terms of national market integration. That's not Industrial Revolution material at all.

I've been saying this for years.

You have my curiosity. What’s the metric for market integration?
 
Based on what you know, could a Taiwanese colonization/exodus be enough to spark one?
He just said the situation was like 16th century Europe, did the colonization of the Caribbean spark an instant industrialization? No it didn't, Taiwan isn't going to change the situation at large, like the expansion in Yunnan didn't.
 
He just said the situation was like 16th century Europe, did the colonization of the Caribbean spark an instant industrialization? No it didn't, Taiwan isn't going to change the situation at large, like the expansion in Yunnan didn't.
P A R A L L E L I S M

The key to industrialization is not "Do whatever the Europeans did"; its "Do whatever actions lead to industrialization". Now, as neither of us have read that book, we can't actually understand precisely what socio-economic conditions tend to lead to industrialization, so we're not really capable of creating an alternative model, much less a model where the Taiwanese Song can industrialize. That's why I asked.

And just to reiterate, while the conditions in the Song Dynasty may have been like 15th century Europe in some senses it is by no mean a direct parallel, nor is the creation of outposts in the Caribbean equivalent to the mass evacuation of a nation who is technologically in advance of the 15th century.
 

Kaze

Banned
I would say it could work in theory. The theory would fail as soon as Kublai decides to build a fleet - instead of sending two invasions (he was planning third before his death) he would just send them to Taiwan... then like the Qing taking Taiwan, it would end quickly.
 
I would say it could work in theory. The theory would fail as soon as Kublai decides to build a fleet - instead of sending two invasions (he was planning third before his death) he would just send them to Taiwan... then like the Qing taking Taiwan, it would end quickly.
Unless those fleets also gets wiped out by storms. I guess that could happen?

I think that with the Song Dynasty having developed Taiwan a bit,their position in Taiwan could have been a lot stronger than Zheng Taiwan—given Zheng Chenggong’s Taiwan had a fairly low population and wasn’t even self-sufficient,heavily dependent upon smuggling. If somehow the Song Dynasty could have developed Taiwan a bit,say settle two hundred thousand people in Taiwan and then get a lot more people when the mainland falls,then they could have been a lot more self sufficient.
 

Kaze

Banned
Unless those fleets also gets wiped out by storms. I guess that could happen?
I will agree to that point - it could happen, but I suspect that the Yuan would look onto Taiwan like the CCCP does our modern day Taiwan with the plans to remove the rebels one way or the other. Now that they are on Taiwan, it does not mean restart industrialization, the first job would be feeding the population, then industrialization, and always looking to the mainland waiting for the fleet that could come.
 
I will agree to that point - it could happen, but I suspect that the Yuan would look onto Taiwan like the CCCP does our modern day Taiwan with the plans to remove the rebels one way or the other. Now that they are on Taiwan, it does not mean restart industrialization, the first job would be feeding the population, then industrialization, and always looking to the mainland waiting for the fleet that could come.
Yep. My whole point in opening this thread is basically to see how well could the Song Dynasty have developed Taiwan if they made a conscientious effort to do so in eight years.There will probably be a lot more refugees going to Taiwan when the mainland falls.

The problem with Zheng Chenggong’s Taiwan was that Zheng Chenggong never controlled a large part of China and therefore he did not have access to too much of the Chinese population and move them there. I wanna see how much can an entity that controls the entirety of Southern China do.Besides,unlike a lot of the European colonies,China is just next door,so access to supplies should be easier.
 

Kaze

Banned
That is what I am talking about - the refugees need feeding somehow. A developed Taiwan might not be able to support a massive population of refugees. Feeding them, housing them, and dealing with them would be job one.
 
That is what I am talking about - the refugees need feeding somehow. A developed Taiwan might not be able to support a massive population of refugees. Feeding them, housing them, and dealing with them would be job one.
I’m assuming that if the Song Dynasty could support(at least until they have their first harvest) and transport 100,000-200,000 farmers to Taiwan in the eight years before Xiangyang fell,then that might possibly lead to a development of a viable settlement that can support much more refugees(considering that Taiwan’s fertile and that the Song Dynasty has access to Champa rice)?

I’m not talking about support more than one million refugees,but at least several hundred thousand.
 
I’d say the important number is not how many people the Song could ship over, but how many Taiwan could support in that era.
I think how many people can the Song Dynasty effectively settle before it’s fall is important.Prior to its’ fall,supplies could be sent from the mainland.As its’ agricultural output increases,so too can the number of people it can support.

I have no doubt the Song forces can subjugate the natives as long as its’ along coastal areas.
 
Song Taiwan may hold out if they also held on to parts of southern China. Otherwise hard to see that lasting.
By divine wind,just like Japan.There’s a lot of typhoons around Taiwan.

The chance is there,even if unlikely.
 
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