Butterflying Majapahit causes islam to spread north and east of malay archipelago sooner.
I'm sorry, how?
How do these colonists get to Taiwan during the absolute nadir of the Song? How do they dominate the island and subjugate the indigenous people's there?
The idea that they'd conquer the Phillipines, Malaysia and Indonesia however defies logic. Those places are so far away from Taiwan and independent. Majapahit would wipe the floor with any Song invasion of Indonesia, much as they did the Mongol invasion - an invasion far larger than anything the Song could send.
A few thousand Song refugees on Taiwan don't need living space. They'll be motivated by revenge on the Mongols, survuval, and maybe a little light piracy.
Considering that the Europeans and Zheng Chenggong’s forces were able to subjugate Taiwan with much less resources,the Song can probably do better. They have approximately 8 years before Xiangyang falls. This means that large parts of the empire and its’ resources would be intact in those 8 years.The "Rapid Evacuation/Enclave Shadow Government" model of colonization doesn't really work, at least not as the greater part of the settlement. You would need the Song to get an interest in starting settler colonies far earlier the the 1260s in order to lay the groundwork and infrastructure to allow for further colonization. All of the optimism in the world won't save you from dying in the wilderness if you don't know how to survive. Colonization would also likely necessitate the total genocide of the Formosans.
If you can get all that, though, the odds of a Somg remnant state are actually not so bad. If groundwork exists, a mass exodus of some sort could actually be possible, which could serve to preserve their technological and industrial prowess. The Yuan will doubtless attempt to conquer it. I don't know how good the Yuan's naval capabilities were. Their attempted invasion of Japan does not inspire massive confidence. Assuming another Kamikaze occurs, the Yuan could well give up.
Taiwan is indeed a pretty fertile island with some coal that could be used to spark an industrial revolution. Potentially, assuming there is in fact a major evacuation that includes the empire's intellectuals, the pressure of the transition and the loss of manpower necessitating labor saving devices could lead to a full blown industrial revolution.
In such a scenario, you could see Somg Taiwan emerging as an early "Asian Tiger", wielding a disproportionate amount of power due to its technology and commerce. From here, it can go either one of two ways: either bide it's time and reconquer the mainland when the Yuan collapse (ala RoC Taiwan IOTL), or look south to the riches of the Indies, becoming a local Venice or perhaps Oman, one that thanks to its industrial economy invents capitalistic colonialism before the Europeans.
Both directions strikes me as highly compelling.
The Song economy was not ready for an industrial revolution.
The Song economy was on par with that of Western Europe in the sixteenth century in terms of national market integration. That's not Industrial Revolution material at all.
I've been saying this for years.
It's kinda complicated. Check out Gilbert Rozman's Urban Networks in Russia, 1750-1800, and Pre-modern Periodization.What’s the metric for market integration?
Based on what you know, could a Taiwanese colonization/exodus be enough to spark one?It's kinda complicated. Check out Gilbert Rozman's Urban Networks in Russia, 1750-1800, and Pre-modern Periodization.
He just said the situation was like 16th century Europe, did the colonization of the Caribbean spark an instant industrialization? No it didn't, Taiwan isn't going to change the situation at large, like the expansion in Yunnan didn't.Based on what you know, could a Taiwanese colonization/exodus be enough to spark one?
P A R A L L E L I S MHe just said the situation was like 16th century Europe, did the colonization of the Caribbean spark an instant industrialization? No it didn't, Taiwan isn't going to change the situation at large, like the expansion in Yunnan didn't.
Unless those fleets also gets wiped out by storms. I guess that could happen?I would say it could work in theory. The theory would fail as soon as Kublai decides to build a fleet - instead of sending two invasions (he was planning third before his death) he would just send them to Taiwan... then like the Qing taking Taiwan, it would end quickly.
I will agree to that point - it could happen, but I suspect that the Yuan would look onto Taiwan like the CCCP does our modern day Taiwan with the plans to remove the rebels one way or the other. Now that they are on Taiwan, it does not mean restart industrialization, the first job would be feeding the population, then industrialization, and always looking to the mainland waiting for the fleet that could come.Unless those fleets also gets wiped out by storms. I guess that could happen?
Yep. My whole point in opening this thread is basically to see how well could the Song Dynasty have developed Taiwan if they made a conscientious effort to do so in eight years.There will probably be a lot more refugees going to Taiwan when the mainland falls.I will agree to that point - it could happen, but I suspect that the Yuan would look onto Taiwan like the CCCP does our modern day Taiwan with the plans to remove the rebels one way or the other. Now that they are on Taiwan, it does not mean restart industrialization, the first job would be feeding the population, then industrialization, and always looking to the mainland waiting for the fleet that could come.
I’m assuming that if the Song Dynasty could support(at least until they have their first harvest) and transport 100,000-200,000 farmers to Taiwan in the eight years before Xiangyang fell,then that might possibly lead to a development of a viable settlement that can support much more refugees(considering that Taiwan’s fertile and that the Song Dynasty has access to Champa rice)?That is what I am talking about - the refugees need feeding somehow. A developed Taiwan might not be able to support a massive population of refugees. Feeding them, housing them, and dealing with them would be job one.
I think how many people can the Song Dynasty effectively settle before it’s fall is important.Prior to its’ fall,supplies could be sent from the mainland.As its’ agricultural output increases,so too can the number of people it can support.I’d say the important number is not how many people the Song could ship over, but how many Taiwan could support in that era.
By divine wind,just like Japan.There’s a lot of typhoons around Taiwan.Song Taiwan may hold out if they also held on to parts of southern China. Otherwise hard to see that lasting.