WI The Somali Democratic Republic won the war with Ethiopia?

What If the Somali Democratic Republic didn't lose the Ogaden War? What would be the repercussions for Africa, Somalia, geopolitics and the Cold War in East Africa? Or for the Somali people?
 
I could see this leading to an early fall of the Derg and an earlier independence of Eritrea. Significantly less Red Terror in Ethiopia = good.

Somalia might try to expand into Kenya where they would probably lose, and into Djibouti, which would most likely lead to French intervention.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
An early fall of the Derg could lead to a new Ethiopian civil war where Oromo separatists could be a large force. And as in all civil wars in that era the USSR and the US would both have their favourites.
 
1977 was the wrong year, if siad barre was not goaded by the Saudis , and waited till the mid 80's when the Soviets were losing interest, he could have taken the Ogaden.

Kenya was no contest, the Somalis had 3 times the armour and a bigger airforce.
and a much larger motorized infantry force which would have been ideal for war in the savannah..

The only problem was the strong support from the west for Kenya,
 
I agree with the last post, I presume the British would intervene in Kenya. Do you guys think the Somalis would attack Djibouti?
 
I agree with the last post, I presume the British would intervene in Kenya. Do you guys think the Somalis would attack Djibouti?
I'm not sure, I think it's more obvious that the French would intervene.
I did think Kenya would only win because of British support though, so you'll have to fiddle around with the UK's domestic politics.
 
I'm not sure, I think it's more obvious that the French would intervene.
I did think Kenya would only win because of British support though, so you'll have to fiddle around with the UK's domestic politics.

If the Soviets had not moved their advisers from Somalia to Ethiopia Somalia might have won the Ogaden, if they had been willing to stop with the Ogaden. That would have saved their armor although I doubt they would have challenged French control of Djibouti they might have tried for the northern section of Kenya. Perhaps by encouraging the Somali speaking clans in the north to revolt.

The real question is could Barre have held the clans together. I doubt it.
 

Thande

Donor
Britain wouldn't intervene in Kenya in 1977. The Callaghan government had lost its majority and was losing by-elections left, right and centre. There's no way Callaghan would be able to call for an unpopular outright intervention. Tacit support perhaps.
 

Commissar

Banned
Britain wouldn't intervene in Kenya in 1977. The Callaghan government had lost its majority and was losing by-elections left, right and centre. There's no way Callaghan would be able to call for an unpopular outright intervention. Tacit support perhaps.

What about South Africa? Or would they not care?
 
after getting screwed by the Soviets in 1978
Siad Barre got really chummy with the South Africans.
Allot of goods were transhipped from Somali ports to help circumvent the embargo.

The south Africans provided mercenaries, advisors and flew hawker hunters for him in the 80's..
The South Africans also helped open secret channels with the Isrealis,

it must have leaked out, because the denials were quite vehement after the 1982 lebanon invasion,.

:D
 
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