WI the siege of COnstantinople in 1204 failed

What if in 1204 as the crusaders besiege Constantinople they cant take the city. Say a big storm like the one which affected the Arab fleet earlier occurs. Say that on land a plague and disease start to destroy the crusaders and the Bulgarians reach Constantinople in time lifting the siege of the city. While Constantinople impenetrable walls hold out.
What happens if the siege fails and the crusaders suffer a crushing defeat crippling their army.
With the siege failed how does world history change?
 
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What if in 120 as the crusaders besiege Constantinople they cant take the city. Say a big storm like the one which affected the Arab fleet earlier occurs. Say that on land a plague and disease start to destroy the crusaders and the Bulgarians reach Constantinople in time lifting the siege of the city. While Constantinople impenetrable walls hold out.
What happens if the siege fails and the crusaders suffer a crushing defeat crippling their army.
With the siege failed how does world history change?

Well, if the siege failed, I'm sure you'd see a great souring (even more than OTL) of Byzanto-Venetian relations, as the Byzantines, if they regain their power, would want to revenge themselves upon the Venetians for their redirection of the crusade.

I'm sure the Byzantines would also end up despising the west a good bit more. :p
 
Well, if the siege failed, I'm sure you'd see a great souring (even more than OTL) of Byzanto-Venetian relations, as the Byzantines, if they regain their power, would want to revenge themselves upon the Venetians for their redirection of the crusade.

I'm sure the Byzantines would also end up despising the west a good bit more. :p
Yeah but with the situation as is I doubt the byzantines can effective launch a retaliottory strike on the Venetians. They got a crap navy, incompetant generals, and a bankrupt treasury.
But It would be interesting to see how Alexius V deals with things in the empire. Plus this butterflies away Trebizond epirus and Morea which remain a part of the byzantine empire.
 
Yeah but with the situation as is I doubt the byzantines can effective launch a retaliottory strike on the Venetians. They got a crap navy, incompetant generals, and a bankrupt treasury.
But It would be interesting to see how Alexius V deals with things in the empire. Plus this butterflies away Trebizond epirus and Morea which remain a part of the byzantine empire.

And the longer the time the Byzantines have to recuperate, and hopefully regain strength, the worse things could be for the Venetians later on.
 
Constantinople

Constantinople holding out against the crusaders of 1204 means that the Greeks are not driven into western Asia Minor and the empire of Nicea is never established. Unless the government in Constantinople can reverse the trend, the remaining Byzantine provinces in Asia Minor will continue to suffer from re-current Turkish raids and local rebellions. This means that most of Asia Minor will fall to the Turks almost a century earlier than OTL.
 
Constantinople holding out against the crusaders of 1204 means that the Greeks are not driven into western Asia Minor and the empire of Nicea is never established. Unless the government in Constantinople can reverse the trend, the remaining Byzantine provinces in Asia Minor will continue to suffer from re-current Turkish raids and local rebellions. This means that most of Asia Minor will fall to the Turks almost a century earlier than OTL.

So a stronger Byzantine Empire would wind up losing the east sooner?
 
So a stronger Byzantine Empire would wind up losing the east sooner?

The situation with the Turks actually became worse in OTL when the Nicaeans re-established the Byzantine Empire and kicked out the Latin Crusaders from Constantinople. When the Byzantine Empire was subjugated by the Crusaders and were divided into a bunch of squabbling successor states, the Nicaeans could had devoted their resources in Asia Minor in beating back the Turkic tribes whenever one or two decided to encroach on their lands and did so rather successfully. Once they conquered Constantinople, their focus returned to affairs in the Balkans and thus Asia Minor was ignored.
 
The situation with the Turks actually became worse in OTL when the Nicaeans re-established the Byzantine Empire and kicked out the Latin Crusaders from Constantinople. When the Byzantine Empire was subjugated by the Crusaders and were divided into a bunch of squabbling successor states, the Nicaeans could had devoted their resources in Asia Minor in beating back the Turkic tribes whenever one or two decided to encroach on their lands and did so rather successfully. Once they conquered Constantinople, their focus returned to affairs in the Balkans and thus Asia Minor was ignored.

Yes, but this is without any devastation, and without the Latins being an issue. They would, from the very beginning, be in a relatively secure position.
 
Yes, but this is without any devastation, and without the Latins being an issue. They would, from the very beginning, be in a relatively secure position.

The biggest problem facing the Romans is the fact that their emperor is an idiot, this could possibly be fixed if he was overthrown by someone more competent (Laskarid or his grandson most likely) things could go well but if they kept the one they had at the time they would dither more than France did under Louis XVI.
 
The biggest problem facing the Romans is the fact that their emperor is an idiot, this could possibly be fixed if he was overthrown by someone more competent (Laskarid or his grandson most likely) things could go well but if they kept the one they had at the time they would dither more than France did under Louis XVI.

No Alexius V was pretty okay. He wasnt an Angeloi he was a doukid one of the oldest and mkst powerful Military and later civil family in Byzantine history. John Doukas Alexius Megas Doux was badass to put it any other way.
Although michael sucked
 
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If the siege of 1204 fails, the Byzantines only need one or two effective leaders to restore the empire to something like the days of Manuel or John. A good way to handle it would be a solid warrior-emperor emerging during the siege, taking control of the city's defense, and beating back the attackers. Maybe add a storm, as the crusaders retreat from the area, permanently ending their threat to the Empire.

Said warrior-emperor could score one or two minor victories against the Bulgarians, revamp the army and restore something like the theme system. It wouldn't restore Bulgaria to the empire, but it might end the threat they pose for awhile, allowing that emperor to campaign and make small gains in Asia Minor against the (then) fractured Turkish domains.

Perhaps his son could then build upon the successes further.

You could see a restoration of the empire that encompasses much more of Asia Minor, but probably wouldn't restore Bulgaria or Southern Italy.

A further note about Asia minor. Between 1200 and 1300, the Turks were fragmenting. It was one of the reasons the Nicea was able to survive against BOTH the Latins and the Turks. Post-1300 is, of course, an entirely different story, but this is far enough before that time that you could butterfly all of it away.
 
I agree with Xeal II that a good Emperor can eliminate Aggeloi for treason,and take action against Bulgars and in the East against the quarreling Seltzuks.With two or three good generals Armenia can still be a tributary state,take concentric action against the Seltzuks and then eliminate Bulgaria making Danube the Northern border again.
Then the Greeks should organize finances and expand and reorganize their navy.Then the next steps...
 
What if in 1204 as the crusaders besiege Constantinople they cant take the city. Say a big storm like the one which affected the Arab fleet earlier occurs. Say that on land a plague and disease start to destroy the crusaders and the Bulgarians reach Constantinople in time lifting the siege of the city. While Constantinople impenetrable walls hold out.
What happens if the siege fails and the crusaders suffer a crushing defeat crippling their army.
With the siege failed how does world history change?
You don't need any of that;absense of treason would suffice....
 
The situation with the Turks actually became worse in OTL when the Nicaeans re-established the Byzantine Empire and kicked out the Latin Crusaders from Constantinople. When the Byzantine Empire was subjugated by the Crusaders and were divided into a bunch of squabbling successor states, the Nicaeans could had devoted their resources in Asia Minor in beating back the Turkic tribes whenever one or two decided to encroach on their lands and did so rather successfully. Once they conquered Constantinople, their focus returned to affairs in the Balkans and thus Asia Minor was ignored.
Posssibly,with a small detail:there is a difference of sixty years;enough for the empire to exterminate the Turks.
 
Posssibly,with a small detail:there is a difference of sixty years;enough for the empire to exterminate the Turks.

One can not simply destroy the Turks. They were well established in Anatolia by the 13th century, if not the century before. You would be hard pressed to "get rid" of them.
 
Indeed, the efforts of the byzantines would have been likely seriously lowered in Anatolia, with the turks maybe taking almost all of it at the end of XI century, maybe XII.
In the other hand having byzantine focused on Balkans could have prevented a too important rising of Serbia and Bulgaria, securing the roman coast.

We'll have more quickly the empire as a balkanic state, just like in the XIII century.

Now, the Nicean Empire managed the romans to use new forms of strategies, of policies etc, that worked well. Without that, we could assume that the emperors don't change them so quickly, so efficiently. It could means a noticable weakening of Byzantine Empire.

Something not mentioned before : the efforts of the crusaders could have been driven in the Holy Land, or at least Cyprus.
It could lead to more surviving Latin states in Acre-fashion until the XIII.
 
The Emperor will have to re-take Trebizond from Alexius Komnenos. If he doesn't do that soon enough it will be very hard with the Megalokomnenoi being supported by Georgia.
 
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