wi: the shining path succeeded

with a post-1900 pod, how could the shining path succeed in its goal of overthrowing the peruvian government? what implications would this have for cold war geo-politics in general and latin american leftism in particular?
 
Pretty sure America wouldn’t have let that happen. Even in my own little country in the Caribbean during the Vietnam War the Americans still sent down troops to stop a relatively unimportant island government from falling, I doubt they would ever let the Peruvian government fall, the US and/or other nations would probably directly intervene before then.
 
If it did succeed you would see a South America's version of The Killing Fields. The Shining path would fall when neighboring countries invaded. The revelations of the horrors that went on there would sour all of Central and South America to the thought of communism
 
[ there are apparently cells in Austin, TX since there's a retaining wall grafitti'd with a crude hammer-and-sickle, and a Spanish exhortation to smash Fascism by following the Shining Path ]
 
To win their guerrilla insurgency, I would say they would have to forge tactical unity with other groups such as the Túpac Amaru Revolutionary Movement - which they fought against IOTL. With a united front, the “people’s war” in the countryside would probably be more successful and perhaps the Peruvian government could topple given their extremely unpopular tactics of repression like rape and torture.

If it did succeed you would see a South America's version of The Killing Fields. The Shining path would fall when neighboring countries invaded. The revelations of the horrors that went on there would sour all of Central and South America to the thought of communism

I’m sure there would be political purges and killings, but what particularly would lead them into some Latin American Pol Pot style Killing Fields?
 
To win their guerrilla insurgency, I would say they would have to forge tactical unity with other groups such as the Túpac Amaru Revolutionary Movement - which they fought against IOTL. With a united front, the “people’s war” in the countryside would probably be more successful and perhaps the Peruvian government could topple given their extremely unpopular tactics of repression like rape and torture.



I’m sure there would be political purges and killings, but what particularly would lead them into some Latin American Pol Pot style Killing Fields?
The Shining path philosophy sounded exactly like that of Paul Pot. With very similar ideologies you can expect very similar results. There are also hints and could have gone full North Korea. I saw some shining path propaganda videos a few decades ago and they looked like a Bargain Basement North Korea propaganda, it involved poor farmers in a village having a mandatory march everyday before work and praising the virtues of The Shining path.
If The Shining path came to power the body count would be at 1 to 4 million, depending on how good they were and shutting down Escape Routes.
The body count could get higher if the government lost touch with reality and created a famine trying to collectivize Farms
I've talked to several peruvians about this and they said if The Shining path had to come to power Millions would have died.
 
It's amazing that even with all the abuses the Peruvian military involved itself in, it was still, relatively speaking, the good guy in its fight against Shining Path.
 
Could be a rough time for some of our four-legged friends...

Early risers in Lima began to find dead dogs hung from traffic lights and lamp posts. They were adorned with signs that read “Deng Xiaoping, Son of a Bitch.”

link
 
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