In 1863 and 1864 there was a series of naval battles between an alliance of France, Britain, America and the Netherlands against the Chōshū Domain, who were taking the "Expel the Barbarians" part of "Sonnō jōi" philosophy very seriously. In OTL the conflict remained restricted to the Shimonoseki Straits and was primarily naval, and in the end a diplomatic solution was reached because the central government in Edo did not support the Chōshū rebels.
But what if diplomatic negotiations broke down, and the Western Alliance declared war on Japan? Let's say their military objective is to arrest the Emperor and force him to rescind his "Expel the Barbarian" edict, and the Shogunate ends up being unable to met such a outrageous demand without losing all legitimacy.
How long would would pre-Meiji Japan, divided and backward as it still was, last in a war against the Western Allies? Apparently the West were quite shocked with how many modern weapons Chōshū had gotten their hands on.
America would probably only be able to provide token support, busy as they were with the Civil War at home. Perhaps a brief fad of Japanophilia occurs in the Confederate press, but probably little more. America will probably be at a disadvantage at the negotiation table when the conflict ends.
Upon defeat, could Japan be partitioned between France, Britain and maybe the Netherlands?
But what if diplomatic negotiations broke down, and the Western Alliance declared war on Japan? Let's say their military objective is to arrest the Emperor and force him to rescind his "Expel the Barbarian" edict, and the Shogunate ends up being unable to met such a outrageous demand without losing all legitimacy.
How long would would pre-Meiji Japan, divided and backward as it still was, last in a war against the Western Allies? Apparently the West were quite shocked with how many modern weapons Chōshū had gotten their hands on.
America would probably only be able to provide token support, busy as they were with the Civil War at home. Perhaps a brief fad of Japanophilia occurs in the Confederate press, but probably little more. America will probably be at a disadvantage at the negotiation table when the conflict ends.
Upon defeat, could Japan be partitioned between France, Britain and maybe the Netherlands?