WI: The Shimabara Rebellion Had Succeeded?

Deleted member 103950

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Artists interpretation of Amakusa Shiro, leader of the Shimabara Rebellion.

From Wikipedia

The Shimabara Rebellion (島原の乱 Shimabara no ran) was an uprising in what is now Nagasaki Prefecture in southwestern Japan lasting from December 17, 1637, to April 15, 1638, during the Edo period. It largely involved peasants, most of them Catholic Christians.

It was one of only a handful of instances of serious unrest during the relatively peaceful period of the Tokugawa shogunate's rule.[2] In the wake of the Matsukura clan's construction of a new castle at Shimabara, taxes were drastically raised, which provoked anger from local peasants and rōnin (samurai without masters). Religious persecution of the local Catholics exacerbated the discontent, which turned into open revolt in 1637. The Tokugawa Shogunate sent a force of over 125,000 troops to suppress the rebels and, after a lengthy siege against the rebels at Hara Castle, defeated them.

In the wake of the rebellion, the Catholic rebel leader Amakusa Shirō was beheaded and the prohibition of Christianity was strictly enforced. Japan's national seclusion policy was tightened and official persecution of Christianity continued until the 1850s. Following the successful suppression of the rebellion, the daimyō of Shimabara, Matsukura Katsuie, was beheaded for misruling, becoming the only daimyō to be beheaded during the Edo period.


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Christianity has never really taken root in Japan the way it did in their neighbors Korea, the Philippines, and even China. This was because the Samurai, the ruling class of the era were very suspicious of foreign influence. Which led to the creation of a government policy that demanded an expulsion of all Europeans from Japan, this also extended to those the Europeans had converted to their faith. Japanese Christians.

This was done because Japan heard news of Christianity becoming a 'third column' of sorts, used by European colonists to get a portion of the native population on their side, and then turning the New Converts against the natives who preferred to stay with the way of their ancestors. (See the Phillipines)

The Christians held out for a good long time in the fortress. Only ultimately losing because of a deal the Daimyo and the Shogun made with the dutch for exclusive trade rights with Japan.

The leader of the rebellion, Amakusa Shiro was counting on the Europeans to help him with the fight. But those same Europeans kind of sold him and every Christian on shimabara out.

The shogunate made a deal with the Dutch merchants to keep exclusive trade rights with Japan during the era of isolation in exchange for Lending them cannons to help bring down the barriers keeping them from taking the castle at Shimabara.

What if, in another timeline. The Dutch had sided with the Martyrs Of Shimabara?
 
The rebels were Catholic, the Dutch would never involve themselves in helping those Christians when they have an oh so profitable agreement with the Shogunate already.

Your better bet is getting the Spaniards strength enough to involve themselves in this.
 
Dutch wouldn't risk their trade agreement with the Shogunate to save Catholics - as Timeaus stated, your best bet are the Spaniards and Portuguese who have had a presence there via the Jesuits - who are already on the Tokugawa's shit-list. The Spanish-Portuguese invade using manpower from the Philippines, Macau and the East Indies and establish a protectorate over Kyushu. Whether he wants it or not, Amakusa Shiro is declared ruler over Kyushu and imposes Catholicism on the remainder of the population but is held on a tight leash by his Iberian patrons. The alternative would be the Shogunate coming to annihilate the Catholic population so he accepts.
 
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Dutch wouldn't risk their trade agreement with the Shogunate to save Catholics - as Timeaus stated, your best bet are the Spaniards and Portuguese who have had a presence there via the Jesuits - who are already on the Tokugawa's shit-list. The Spanish-Portuguese invade using manpower from the Philippines, Macau and the East Indies and establish a protectorate over Kyushu. Whether he wants it or not, Amakusa Shiro is declared ruler over Kyushu and imposes Catholicism on the remainder of the population but is held on a tight leash by his Iberian patrons. The alternative would be the Shogunate coming to annihilate the Catholic population so he accepts.

And really, with the Spaniards at the time busy just barely surviving the raids of the Dutchmen, it's pretty unlikely for the Spaniards to even make the offer, let alone back it up.

So... we'd need to crush the Dutch first for the Spaniards to even have a chance to get this started.
 
Oh, and you have to remember that to Catholics, the Dutch are heretic traitor pirates who serve the Antichrist, and to the Dutch, the Catholics are Papist servants of the Whore of Babylon. So that's also another reason the Dutch would not side with the Shimabara martyrs.
 
I think the PoD would have to be something with the Dutch-Portugese war, the Dutch aren't going to stick their neck out for Catholics and the Portugese and Spaniards can't do much so long as they're playing "Thirty Years War: Monsoon Trade Winds".
 
The rebels might have held out if they were better organized. The Shogunate had more resources, but didn't deploy most available manpower. They also had the idea of trying to storm castles through the front, which surprisingly got them results with plenty of casualties. It should be noted the Shimabara Rebellion was directed at a daimyo who was very cruel and whose brother, nephew, bother-in-law, and sister were in favor of the Shogunate while he himself was... not exactly marked for elimination but not buddies either. If the rebels hold out for three more years while the Shogunate force does the "go straight into the teeth of the enemy's defenses" tactics, they might be able to get a negotiated peace and freedom of worship. This would absolutely not happen if they were fighting a diamyo in favor
 

Deleted member 103950

The best case scenario I can imagine for them honestly is that shimabara becomes in this timeline what Dejima was in OT. An outpost for trade with the outside world.

Also. Doh! How could I be so stupid to forget the Dutch weren't catholics?
 
actually a POD far back to the reformation that keeps the dutch Catholic could help or completely throw it out of wack by butterflies.

I mean if nothing else you could have the Shogun or someone else catch a fatal disease or fall off their horse and die and see what that gives you.
 
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