WI the Sforzas continue to rule Milan after 1535?

In 1535 Francesco II Sforza died childless, ending the rule of his dynasty in the Duchy of Milan and allowing Charles V to annex the territory to the Habsburg lands. However, WI Francesco had lived longer (until 1545, more or less, when he would be about the same age of his father when he died)? Assuming that he has a son by his wife, how would an independent Duchy of Milan affect the Imperial and French policies in Northern Italy?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I would assume that the Sforza would remain in the Imperial camp for as long as the French kings make claims on Milan. But there would be some serious ramifications coming in the second half of the century. For one an independent Milan would problem hold itself together better and perhaps secure preeminence among the north Italian states. It could also means the Duchy of Parma doesn't come into being. And if there's no Duke of Parma that really affects things because who would Maragaret of Parma marry? the Duke of Milan instead? And then what about Maria of Portugal and her claims to the Portuguese succession that the Dukes of Parma never pursued?

Moreover if the French Valois dynasty dies out on schedule the French claim to Milan dies with them (I suppose it could pass to Elisabeth of Valois and her descendents but OTL she was Queen of Spain). So Henry IV could potentially make a rapprochement with Milan to break Spanish power in Italy. Either way it would be hard for Spain to maintain the same hegemony if Milan (with Parma) is in the hands of a Duke whose loyalties are not guaranteed. There's also knock on affects for the how a Mantuan Succession crisis is handled (if there still is one) and what becomes of the Valtellina. Milan is probably able to check the growth of the Duchy of Savoy as well.

It would be interesting if they ally with the French during the 30 Years War. If Milan blocks the flow of Spanish troops from the south the War would go very differently, I suppose the same could be said for the conflict in the Netherlands. I wonder if Milan would try and claim the old Iron Crown of Lombardy. Perhaps the Peace of Westphalia recognizes the independence of the Kingdom of Lombardy aka Milan. I'm getting a little carried away but the butterflies do seem like they'd breed exponentially from the 1540's on.
 
And if there's no Duke of Parma that really affects things because who would Maragaret of Parma marry? the Duke of Milan instead?

Margaret of Austria was married to Ottavio Farnese in 1538, before his father Pier Luigi had become Duke of Parma (in 1545). So the Farnese not owning Parma would have no influence on it. She was married to him because she was a bastard, and therefore wouldn't be accepted by the most important noble houses. But the son of the bastard of the Pope was good deal to her.

Also, by 1535 Parma and Piacenza belonged to the Papal States, not to Milan. That's why Paul III made his son the ruler of that territory. I doubt the Sforza would have the political strenght to change the situation ITTL too.
 
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