WI: The Sforza State Survives

[DrakeRlugia]

Northern Italy just had it rough at the beginning of the 16th century, a playground between the Valois and the Habsburgs, with Milan being smack in the middle, the Kings of France attempting to press their claim to it, and in the end seeing the Holy Roman Emperor's son (and future King of Spain) installed in the Duchy of Milan when the Sforza dynasty when extinct.

But what if the Sforza dynasty had survived? It doesn't matter how, it's not too important. But rather than the French or Spanish ending up in possession of Milan, it remains independent under the Sforza dynasty. How does this affect European politics through the 16th century, and beyond?

 

[Gonzaga]

Northern Italy just had it rough at the beginning of the 16th century, a playground between the Valois and the Habsburgs, with Milan being smack in the middle, the Kings of France attempting to press their claim to it, and in the end seeing the Holy Roman Emperor's son (and future King of Spain) installed in the Duchy of Milan when the Sforza dynasty when extinct.

But what if the Sforza dynasty had survived? It doesn't matter how, it's not too important. But rather than the French or Spanish ending up in possession of Milan, it remains independent under the Sforza dynasty. How does this affect European politics through the 16th century, and beyond?

Well, the French wouldn't give up easily their claim to Milan, it came from the Visconti and they considered the Sforza's claim illegitimate since it came from a bastard daughter of the Duke of Milan. So probably a independent Milan would still be allied to the Habsburgs.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

Well, the French wouldn't give up easily their claim to Milan, it came from the Visconti and they considered the Sforza's claim illegitimate since it came from a bastard daughter of the Duke of Milan. So probably a independent Milan would still be allied to the Habsburgs.

A surviving Sforza family in Milan would definitely not be a shoe-in ally of the Hapsburg. The last Sforza duke, the childless Francesco II, turned on the Hapsburg by joining the League of Cognac (and thus allying with the King of France), made peace in 1532, and then died in 1535. His legitimized half brother Giovanni Paolo had a claim to the Duchy, but he died in what appears to be poisoning. Giovanni was in the process of pursuing his claim on the Duchy of Milan, since as a legitimized son of Ludovico Sforza (and married to another Sforza descendent), he was the next in line.

If Giovanni isn't posioned, I think he would have Spanish support to become the Duke of Milan. The Italian War of 1535 was fought over Milan, and the result was the French were unable to force their way into Italy. Giovanni already had a son, so the succession is at least secured for a few more years, though the French claim to Milan could be resurrected at any future time.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You could also have Ludovico the Moor not kill his nephew Gian Galezzo Sforza, because Duke Gian was married to the King of Naples daughter so this time around you wont have Ludovico ask the King of France to bring his army into Italy

 

[Gonzaga]

You could also have Ludovico the Moor not kill his nephew Gian Galezzo Sforza, because Duke Gian was married to the King of Naples daughter so this time around you wont have Ludovico ask the King of France to bring his army into Italy

Or even better, make Gian Galeazzo's father, Galeazzo Maria Sforza, not be assassinated by some Milanese nobles. Ludovico would never act against his brother (who was even more cruel than him) and when Galeazzo Maria dies his son would be an adult man and not a child who let Ludovico ruling the place.

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Gian Galeazzo surviving has interesting affects; his marriage to Isabella of Naples produced children, most especially a son who died whilst in France. If the son survives and has children, this has interesting affects. It's probable that France will still attempt to advance their claims in Milan and Naples, so I think the Italian wars might still happen... if the Kingdom of Naples is partitioned as OTL, the Sforza might see themselves as natural heirs of the Kingdom (through Isabella of Naples, and the fact that the Kingdom had two female rulers, Joan I & Joan II).

 

[LordKalvan]

Or even better, make Gian Galeazzo's father, Galeazzo Maria Sforza, not be assassinated by some Milanese nobles. Ludovico would never act against his brother (who was even more cruel than him) and when Galeazzo Maria dies his son would be an adult man and not a child who let Ludovico ruling the place.

IMHO, this would be the best and safest way to ensure that the Sforza's dukedom lasts and prospers.

The traditional historiography had always been quite critical of the young duke, accusing him of cruelty and sexual excesses. However, more recent research has also pointed out that Galeazzo Maria was quite proactive in ensuring the welfare of his subjects, in particularly promoting agriculture and the construction of infrastructures for irrgation (canals). Galeazzo Maria had also married (twice!!) in the Gonzaga family, who ruled Mantuaand later Monferrato too. There might be a basis for a future claim on the duchy of Mantua, quite rich and controlling the start of the Brenner pass road as well as the Po river.

The problem is finding a reasonable agreement with Venice; IMHO, the HRE was already on the good side of the Sforza (and a daughter of Galeazzo Maria IOTL married the emperor in the late 15th century), and it was quite likely to find a mutually suitable arrangement with the Swiss.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

IMHO, this would be the best and safest way to ensure that the Sforza's dukedom lasts and prospers.

The traditional historiography had always been quite critical of the young duke, accusing him of cruelty and sexual excesses. However, more recent research has also pointed out that Galeazzo Maria was quite proactive in ensuring the welfare of his subjects, in particularly promoting agriculture and the construction of infrastructures for irrgation (canals). Galeazzo Maria had also married (twice!!) in the Gonzaga family, who ruled Mantuaand later Monferrato too. There might be a basis for a future claim on the duchy of Mantua, quite rich and controlling the start of the Brenner pass road as well as the Po river.

The problem is finding a reasonable agreement with Venice; IMHO, the HRE was already on the good side of the Sforza (and a daughter of Galeazzo Maria IOTL married the emperor in the late 15th century), and it was quite likely to find a mutually suitable arrangement with the Swiss.

How about finding an agreement with France? If the Louis, Duke of Orleans still becomes Louis XII, King of France, then the French claim on Milan will be advanced and the Milanese will find a constant threat from that side of the Alps.

If Galeazzeo Maria avoids the assassins, then I think the big POD would be that the Medici brokered pan-Italian peace would stay in place with a stable Milan. With the peace being maintained and Galeazzo ruling unopposed, he might not feel the need to get HRE recognition, since Italy remains political united against beyond-the-Alps powers.

 

[LordKalvan]

How about finding an agreement with France? If the Louis, Duke of Orleans still becomes Louis XII, King of France, then the French claim on Milan will be advanced and the Milanese will find a constant threat from that side of the Alps.

IMHO, one cannot be friend to everyone
Out of the joke, in the late quarter of the 15th century the idea of France invading Italy is still a bit ASB: they never did since the 8th century and Charlemagne. The real problem is Venice, which is naturally worried by the cozyness between Milan and HRE (and just a few years have passed since the Venetian attempt to annex the Ambrosian republic), not to mention the clash of interest in Romagna.

If Galeazzeo Maria avoids the assassins, then I think the big POD would be that the Medici brokered pan-Italian peace would stay in place with a stable Milan. With the peace being maintained and Galeazzo ruling unopposed, he might not feel the need to get HRE recognition, since Italy remains political united against beyond-the-Alps powers.

I still believe that the situation is potentially too unstable.
Galeazzo will continue to play the HRE relation card (and ultimately the emperor is his formal overlord, even if the thing is more theoretical than real).

My pet theory is that an alliance of Milan and Venice would be (almost) unbeatable. How to keep the thieves honest when the loot is to be shared is another thing.

 

[Gonzaga]

How about finding an agreement with France? If the Louis, Duke of Orleans still becomes Louis XII, King of France, then the French claim on Milan will be advanced and the Milanese will find a constant threat from that side of the Alps.

I know it's a completely different idea from what was asked in the beggining of the thread, but I didn't want to start a new one: would be possible to have Louis or his father becoming Duke of Milan but not king of France? This way we would have a Valois Milan, but not belonging to the French crown, and possibly they could even turn against their relatives later.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

I know it's a completely different idea from what was asked in the beggining of the thread, but I didn't want to start a new one: would be possible to have Louis or his father becoming Duke of Milan but not king of France? This way we would have a Valois Milan, but not belonging to the French crown, and possibly they could even turn against their relatives later.

Charles VIII needs to have male issue. If he has a son with Anne of Brittany, then the Senior Valios branch continues, and Orleans continues to be the waiting in the wings successor (he lives until 1515). Charles VIII died in a freak accident at the age of 28, so if he gets another 22 years (and thus lives as long as his father) then I think we could probably get Orleans onto the Milanese ducal throne.

What I could see is a renewed French attempt to secure Naples. Charles VIII's renewed war in Italy drives Sforza from the city, and Orleans is installed as the new Duke of Milan. Orleans now pours all of his effort and most of his fortune into this new venture, attempting to win over the people of Milan. At the Treaty of Lyons Milan is ceded to Orleans, who gives up his rights to the French throne in return for international recognition of his rule of the duchy.

Orleans didn't have any male children in OTL, so I think that what might end up happening is after he remarries in 1505 (following his first wife's death) he has a girl or two (maybe he has a boy). Now either he goes with an independent foreign policy and marries his heir and daughter to an Italian husband, or he goes back to France and marries her to one of Charles VIII *children (who were never born OTL). Legitimacy in Italy was slippery, and military victories led to families losing their cities. Marrying his daughter-heir to Maximilian Sforza seems like it might be a good idea, the man grew up in the Imperial court, and his family has the closet claim to the Milanese throne.

 

[mcdnab]

Charles VIII's eldest child by Anne of Brittany - lived and was healthy (dying at 3 from an attack of the measles) that would give you a reasonable way of preventing Louis Duke of Orleans becoming King of France at any point/
As to his marriages - he was already married to Jeanne of France (sister of Charles VIII) - the saintly Jeanne fought him like mad when he insisted on the annulment in 1498 (to marry his cousin's widow Anne of Brittany - who only consented because she thought the divorce wouldn't happen) - the Pope of the day agreed because it suited him politically to have Louis on side. You can therefore assume that there won't be a divorce in this timeline Jeanne didn't die until 1505 - which means that Louis is likely to remarry promptly but will almost certainly leave a minor child as his heir in Milan. So a lot depends on who he marries in 1505....a Sforza princess would make sense for him.

Charles VIII needs to have male issue. If he has a son with Anne of Brittany, then the Senior Valios branch continues, and Orleans continues to be the waiting in the wings successor (he lives until 1515). Charles VIII died in a freak accident at the age of 28, so if he gets another 22 years (and thus lives as long as his father) then I think we could probably get Orleans onto the Milanese ducal throne.

What I could see is a renewed French attempt to secure Naples. Charles VIII's renewed war in Italy drives Sforza from the city, and Orleans is installed as the new Duke of Milan. Orleans now pours all of his effort and most of his fortune into this new venture, attempting to win over the people of Milan. At the Treaty of Lyons Milan is ceded to Orleans, who gives up his rights to the French throne in return for international recognition of his rule of the duchy.

Orleans didn't have any male children in OTL, so I think that what might end up happening is after he remarries in 1505 (following his first wife's death) he has a girl or two (maybe he has a boy). Now either he goes with an independent foreign policy and marries his heir and daughter to an Italian husband, or he goes back to France and marries her to one of Charles VIII *children (who were never born OTL). Legitimacy in Italy was slippery, and military victories led to families losing their cities. Marrying his daughter-heir to Maximilian Sforza seems like it might be a good idea, the man grew up in the Imperial court, and his family has the closet claim to the Milanese throne.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

Charles VIII's eldest child by Anne of Brittany - lived and was healthy (dying at 3 from an attack of the measles) that would give you a reasonable way of preventing Louis Duke of Orleans becoming King of France at any point.

Another regency (probably of Anne of France, young Charles IX's aunt and his own father's regent) would just tempt Orleans to try and seize the regency again, like he did when Charles VIII took the throne on Louis XI's death. With a minor on the throne, France won't be in a position to launch a major campaign in Italy.

However, Charles IX would come to his majority at the same time that Jean, Orleans' wife, would die, in 1505. If Orleans hasn't caused too much trouble- and with Charles IX alive and not too young when Charles VIII dies he might not- then I could see an Italian marriage for Orleans and Charles IX using his cousin's claim on Milan to grab control of much of Italy.

As to his marriages - he was already married to Jeanne of France (sister of Charles VIII) - the saintly Jeanne fought him like mad when he insisted on the annulment in 1498 (to marry his cousin's widow Anne of Brittany - who only consented because she thought the divorce wouldn't happen) - the Pope of the day agreed because it suited him politically to have Louis on side. You can therefore assume that there won't be a divorce in this timeline Jeanne didn't die until 1505 - which means that Louis is likely to remarry promptly but will almost certainly leave a minor child as his heir in Milan. So a lot depends on who he marries in 1505....a Sforza princess would make sense for him.

Bona Sforza, the daughter of Gian Galeazzo, was born in 1493, could marry Orleans at 12 years old, perhaps as part of a peace deal to end the *2nd Italian Wars where Charles VIII lives. Bona marries Orleans, Orleans gives up his claims to the French throne, the Sforza are to get Milan back if Orleans dies childless. It won't happen that way, but hey, this is Renaissance Europe . . .