WI the Seventh Fleet attacked the Pearl Harbor Carrier Striking Force?

bard32

Banned
Here's a switch. It was the plot of an alternate history novel I was trying to write back about 1991-92. The United States Navy's Seventh Fleet, is sent from Pearl Harbor to attack the Carrier Striking Force in its anchorage/practice
field, Hitokappu Bay, on the island of Etorofu, in the Southern Kurile Islands.
Theoretically, (realistically if, possible,) would the USN, striking the first blow,
have made a difference?
 
Here's a switch. It was the plot of an alternate history novel I was trying to write back about 1991-92. The United States Navy's Seventh Fleet, is sent from Pearl Harbor to attack the Carrier Striking Force in its anchorage/practice field, Hitokappu Bay, on the island of Etorofu, in the Southern Kurile Islands. Theoretically, (realistically if, possible,) would the USN, striking the first blow, have made a difference?

When??????
 
Let's make the POD between October 26, 1941, and the morning of November 26, 1941. (The evening of November 25, 1941, in the United States, since Japan's on the opposite side of the International Dateline.)

Seventh Fleet wasn't formed until March 15, 1943
 
How and why?

I will also point out that there was no Seventh Fleet at this point in time. There was only the Atlantic and Pacific Fleets.

Theoretically, (realistically if, possible,) would the USN, striking the first blow,
have made a difference?

No. Sinking major elements of the IJN at the beginning of the war and preventing the Pearl Harbor strike would not have made any difference at all in the events of the war :rolleyes:
 
Roosevelt was adament that Japan strike the first blow. I can't even begin to imagine any circumstances that would allow the US to strike first given that. Maybe if Purple was broken earlier and there was some proof that Japan was going to attack US possessions and not just the UK and Dutch.

Of course, Congress might pose a problem...:(
 

bard32

Banned
Roosevelt was adament that Japan strike the first blow. I can't even begin to imagine any circumstances that would allow the US to strike first given that. Maybe if Purple was broken earlier and there was some proof that Japan was going to attack US possessions and not just the UK and Dutch.

Of course, Congress might pose a problem...:(

I see. According to the Fox News Channel series War Stories w/ Oliver North, which had an episode on Pearl Harbor, some people claim that
the Japanese weren't as strict with radio silence as most people believe.
Since this is an alternate history site, IATL, couldn't the Seventh Fleet have been formed earlier?
 

bard32

Banned
How and why?

I will also point out that there was no Seventh Fleet at this point in time. There was only the Atlantic and Pacific Fleets.



No. Sinking major elements of the IJN at the beginning of the war and preventing the Pearl Harbor strike would not have made any difference at all in the events of the war :rolleyes:

Maybe not but it would have been a symbolic blow. Much like the Doolittle Raid.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
I see. According to the Fox News Channel series War Stories w/ Oliver North, which had an episode on Pearl Harbor, some people claim that
the Japanese weren't as strict with radio silence as most people believe.
Since this is an alternate history site, IATL, couldn't the Seventh Fleet have been formed earlier?


Why would 7th Fleet be established earlier? It was only done in 1943 to allow better coordination with the wartime Theater Command structure.

Regarding the POD: Unlike today's 7th, the WW II version was effectively an amphibious force, with intergrated aircover from baby flattops but no intergrated strike capacity. The Fleet carriers were with Nimitz in the Central Pacific as part of the 3rd (Halsey)/5th (Spruance) Fleet.
 
I misread it as: " WI the Seventh Fleet attacked the Pearl Harbor with a Carrier Striking Force?" :eek::eek::eek::eek:
 
Since this is an alternate history site, IATL, couldn't the Seventh Fleet have been formed earlier?

That's handwavium. Just because we discuss things that didn't actually happen, doesn't mean that you can start making arguements without facts.

Not that that stops you, though. :rolleyes:
 
I see. According to the Fox News Channel series War Stories w/ Oliver North, which had an episode on Pearl Harbor, some people claim that
the Japanese weren't as strict with radio silence as most people believe.
Since this is an alternate history site, IATL, couldn't the Seventh Fleet have been formed earlier?

True, the Japanese wee blasting the Airwaves and the Intercepts have been found in the Archives. Problem was, noone relayed the intercepts to Kimmel or his Operations Chief.
 
Here's a switch. It was the plot of an alternate history novel I was trying to write back about 1991-92. The United States Navy's Seventh Fleet, is sent from Pearl Harbor to attack the Carrier Striking Force in its anchorage/practice
field, Hitokappu Bay, on the island of Etorofu, in the Southern Kurile Islands.
Theoretically, (realistically if, possible,) would the USN, striking the first blow,
have made a difference?

Implaussible to impossible. The United States in this time period in the middle of an isolationist mindset. Japan sunk an American warship in 1937, and Congress chose to do nothing. They will not react well unless there is overwhelming proff an attack is being planned (and I mean, say, a Japanese aircraft crashes near Pearl and the pilot is interrogated), and even then there will be little unity of the war effort. Also, the American Pacific fleet at the time consisted of three Carriers (lexington, Saratoga, Enterprise), 9 battleships, and assorted escorts. The combined Fleet Striking force had a total of 6 carriers (Akagi, Kaga, Hiryu, Soryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku), 2 battleships (Hiei, Kirishima), 3 Cruisers, and 8 destroyers. The Americans cannot locate the japanese force and eliminate it in time with carrierbourne aircraft without being defeated in detail, and a Battleship action is unlikely. The American battleships, while numerous enough to wipe out the CFSF if they caught it, are to slow to catch them, vulnerable to air attack, and their departure would give the japanese time to react (not to mention sallying the rest of the fleet). By then, a fleet engagment will be under very uncertain terms, and remember, there is no war.

Where do you come up with these scenarios? And can you at least try a bit harder to find some plausible ones?
 
Implaussible to impossible. The United States in this time period in the middle of an isolationist mindset. Japan sunk an American warship in 1937, and Congress chose to do nothing. They will not react well unless there is overwhelming proff an attack is being planned (and I mean, say, a Japanese aircraft crashes near Pearl and the pilot is interrogated), and even then there will be little unity of the war effort. Also, the American Pacific fleet at the time consisted of three Carriers (lexington, Saratoga, Enterprise), 9 battleships, and assorted escorts. The combined Fleet Striking force had a total of 6 carriers (Akagi, Kaga, Hiryu, Soryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku), 2 battleships (Hiei, Kirishima), 3 Cruisers, and 8 destroyers. The Americans cannot locate the japanese force and eliminate it in time with carrierbourne aircraft without being defeated in detail, and a Battleship action is unlikely. The American battleships, while numerous enough to wipe out the CFSF if they caught it, are to slow to catch them, vulnerable to air attack, and their departure would give the japanese time to react (not to mention sallying the rest of the fleet). By then, a fleet engagment will be under very uncertain terms, and remember, there is no war.

Where do you come up with these scenarios? And can you at least try a bit harder to find some plausible ones?

I pretty much agree, but have to point out that the Panay was a gunship, and only a handful of crewmembers were killed.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
I pretty much agree, but have to point out that the Panay was a gunship, and only a handful of crewmembers were killed.

She was actually a gunboat, but still on the Navy Register as a combat vessel. Not that it mattered.

The Germans blew DD 245 the Ruben James out of the water, killing 115 men (3/4 of her crew) in the process, and Congress barely yawned. That was AFTER a U-boat put a torpedo into DD 432 USS Kearny & killed eleven men.

It took a strike like Pearl Harbor to piss the U.S. off sufficiently to get America into the war.
 
Such an engagement might actually be in FAVOUR for the Japanese, being able to sink the US battleships in deep water, where they may not be recovered, and possibly also the US carriers - at this time, the Japanese carrier air arm was superior to its US equilent, was it not? With no codes broken, and with both vast numerical and quality superiority, I would not hold it for impossible that the US flattops goes down with the battleships.
 

bard32

Banned
Such an engagement might actually be in FAVOUR for the Japanese, being able to sink the US battleships in deep water, where they may not be recovered, and possibly also the US carriers - at this time, the Japanese carrier air arm was superior to its US equilent, was it not? With no codes broken, and with both vast numerical and quality superiority, I would not hold it for impossible that the US flattops goes down with the battleships.

Maybe. However, if it was like Pearl Harbor, and if Halsey was in command,
from what I read in the book Zero, Hitokappu Bay, on Etorofu Island, was the same depth as Pearl Harbor. That's why the Japanese chose it. Maybe
one, if not all six, carriers, would be on the bottom and the Americans would be far away before the Japanese cruisers and battleships could give pursuit.
As I said before, it was the plot of an alternate history novel I was working on.
 

bard32

Banned
She was actually a gunboat, but still on the Navy Register as a combat vessel. Not that it mattered.

The Germans blew DD 245 the Ruben James out of the water, killing 115 men (3/4 of her crew) in the process, and Congress barely yawned. That was AFTER a U-boat put a torpedo into DD 432 USS Kearny & killed eleven men.

It took a strike like Pearl Harbor to piss the U.S. off sufficiently to get America into the war.

Because Germany called it provocation. Was it a provocation? Let me play devil's advocate here and say yes. Yes, it was a provocation in German eyes.
However, FDR had ordered our destroyers to escort the convoys to Iceland.
 
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