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In Java, 1815, the British made their preparations to return the island (a Napoleonic-era conquest) to the Dutch. But the British Indian troops of the Light Infantry Battalion were quite frustrated - and quite worried. They were frustrated because they had been on duty in a foreign land, isolated from their families, for almost two years. Moreover, the cash needed to support their wives and children back home was apparently not being remitted very well. They were worried because there were rumors that the sepoys would be forced to serve under the reestablished Dutch regime and never come home.

At the same time, the court of Surakarta, one of the two major native kingdoms in Java at the time, was also growing irritated by the British. There were rumors that the Dutch would end the subsides to the court that the British had established in return for abrogating the Javanese kingdoms' rights to tax its own markets and tollgates, while a set of ruinous treaties signed in August 1812 deprived the Javanese kingdoms of very valuable lands. And, of course, if the Sepoys were successful Surakarta might defeat its hated enemy, Yogyakarta, and reunite the Javanese kingdoms. So it was natural that at least some statesmen in Surakarta would be interested in an attempt to overthrow the European government along with the Sepoys. The Sepoys also contacted Yogyakarta, the other main Javanese kingdom, but the Yogyanese did not dare to intervene (having been cowed by the British sack of their capital in 1812).

The Sepoys and their Javanese allies appear to have had the following plan:
1. Kick out the British
2. ???
3. Profit
Even though one of the motivations of the Sepoys was their virtual exile far from Bengal, at least some of the Sepoys didn't actually want to return to Bengal (or realized they could never return to Bengal once the mutiny had begun) but rather to supplant the Europeans (and the Javanese) as masters of Java. Other Indians appear to have been motivated by the Hindu history of Java. To quote a British general:
"The sepoys always pointed out that Java was the land of Brama. This they would say was the country in which their gods took delight; this must be the country described in their sacred books and not Hindustan, which, if ever the abode of the gods must have since been strangely altered, and that it was a sin and a shame that the land of Brama [Java] should remain in the hands of infidels."​
As for the Javanese of Surakarta, we don't really know. But if the Sepoys won, it seems likely that the Javanese kingdoms would have been no match for the disciplined Indian troops.

In any case, the would-be rebels lost their nerve and constantly postponed the day of the revolt. Ultimately this procrastination allowed a British lieutenant to find out and warn the Sepoys that anyone planning to mutiny would be blown away by cannon. The Sepoys lost what courage they had left and the conspiracy was finished with a whimper.

What if things had turned out differently, if the Sepoys had been less nervous and able to revolt?
  • The Sepoys outnumbered the Europeans by roughly 3:2 (1,800:1,200 by the time of the handover of the island to the Dutch), and with the addition of Javanese forces the numerical disparity would be far greater. Could the Sepoys have won?
  • If so, how long would the Sepoys maintain control of Java?
  • Would the Dutch still get Java back? If so, how would Dutch Java be changed?
  • Whether the Sepoys won or not, would there be an earlier shift in the British use of Sepoys, as after 1857?
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