WI: The Sepoys successfully oust the British from Java, 1815

In Java, 1815, the British made their preparations to return the island (a Napoleonic-era conquest) to the Dutch. But the British Indian troops of the Light Infantry Battalion were quite frustrated - and quite worried. They were frustrated because they had been on duty in a foreign land, isolated from their families, for almost two years. Moreover, the cash needed to support their wives and children back home was apparently not being remitted very well. They were worried because there were rumors that the sepoys would be forced to serve under the reestablished Dutch regime and never come home.

At the same time, the court of Surakarta, one of the two major native kingdoms in Java at the time, was also growing irritated by the British. There were rumors that the Dutch would end the subsides to the court that the British had established in return for abrogating the Javanese kingdoms' rights to tax its own markets and tollgates, while a set of ruinous treaties signed in August 1812 deprived the Javanese kingdoms of very valuable lands. And, of course, if the Sepoys were successful Surakarta might defeat its hated enemy, Yogyakarta, and reunite the Javanese kingdoms. So it was natural that at least some statesmen in Surakarta would be interested in an attempt to overthrow the European government along with the Sepoys. The Sepoys also contacted Yogyakarta, the other main Javanese kingdom, but the Yogyanese did not dare to intervene (having been cowed by the British sack of their capital in 1812).

The Sepoys and their Javanese allies appear to have had the following plan:
1. Kick out the British
2. ???
3. Profit
Even though one of the motivations of the Sepoys was their virtual exile far from Bengal, at least some of the Sepoys didn't actually want to return to Bengal (or realized they could never return to Bengal once the mutiny had begun) but rather to supplant the Europeans (and the Javanese) as masters of Java. Other Indians appear to have been motivated by the Hindu history of Java. To quote a British general:
"The sepoys always pointed out that Java was the land of Brama. This they would say was the country in which their gods took delight; this must be the country described in their sacred books and not Hindustan, which, if ever the abode of the gods must have since been strangely altered, and that it was a sin and a shame that the land of Brama [Java] should remain in the hands of infidels."​
As for the Javanese of Surakarta, we don't really know. But if the Sepoys won, it seems likely that the Javanese kingdoms would have been no match for the disciplined Indian troops.

In any case, the would-be rebels lost their nerve and constantly postponed the day of the revolt. Ultimately this procrastination allowed a British lieutenant to find out and warn the Sepoys that anyone planning to mutiny would be blown away by cannon. The Sepoys lost what courage they had left and the conspiracy was finished with a whimper.

What if things had turned out differently, if the Sepoys had been less nervous and able to revolt?
  • The Sepoys outnumbered the Europeans by roughly 3:2 (1,800:1,200 by the time of the handover of the island to the Dutch), and with the addition of Javanese forces the numerical disparity would be far greater. Could the Sepoys have won?
  • If so, how long would the Sepoys maintain control of Java?
  • Would the Dutch still get Java back? If so, how would Dutch Java be changed?
  • Whether the Sepoys won or not, would there be an earlier shift in the British use of Sepoys, as after 1857?
 
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I didn't know about that bit!

How well trained were the sepoys compared to European groups? The 3:2 ratio can be good but European troupes won against worse odds before. I do imagine they were quite well trained though.
What about their ammunition? Is there a factory on Java or do they need external supply?

What strikes me is the complete lack of external support they'd aave. The Portuguese are weak and allied to the Brits anyway, the Duh are weak and the French can't do anything tt that point.

I would say the rebellion would end up being crushed, the big question becomes, what if they have popular support?
 
I didn't know about that bit!

How well trained were the sepoys compared to European groups? The 3:2 ratio can be good but European troupes won against worse odds before. I do imagine they were quite well trained though.
What about their ammunition? Is there a factory on Java or do they need external supply?

What strikes me is the complete lack of external support they'd aave. The Portuguese are weak and allied to the Brits anyway, the Duh are weak and the French can't do anything tt that point.

I would say the rebellion would end up being crushed, the big question becomes, what if they have popular support?

They could probably hold out for a while, but ultimately be crushed. Perhaps, the effects of this are larger in India and it triggers larger revolts in the rest of Indonesia and India. I doubt the British will be thrown out of India or the Dutch of Indonesia but they'd have to fight to keep themselves there.
 
They could probably hold out for a while, but ultimately be crushed. Perhaps, the effects of this are larger in India and it triggers larger revolts in the rest of Indonesia and India. I doubt the British will be thrown out of India or the Dutch of Indonesia but they'd have to fight to keep themselves there.
I doubt it would have effects on India as it doesn't seem they had an ideological background? That would be needed for it to spread I think.
For the Dutch, well maybe they can not get completely out of Indonesia but if Batavia is burnt or destroyed, would they have the resources to get it back in shape?
 
The Java War a few years later demonstrated that the Javanese still had considerable martial ability, as well as the numbers to really give the _Dutch_ a hard run of it. I seriously doubt that if the British put real effort into putting down a Sepoy/Javanese rebellion that they will not succeed, but if there's a way to prevent the British from doing so this could very well be the end of Dutch rule in Central and maybe Eastern Java, at least for a while. West Java is a much harder task, Batavia in particular. The greatest issue the Javanese faced was the continuous disunity, which was the one thing that led to their defeats in the first place. A long term relationship between a reunited Mataram and the exiled Sepoys would be very interesting to read about, but the fractious nature of Javanese polities makes it precarious.
 
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