What if Clarence Thomas’s SCOTUS nomination suffered the same fate as John Tower’s Defense Secretary nomination? Who, if anyone, would Bush for Marshall’s SCOTUS seat? Would any states vote differently in 1992?
Judge Emilio Miller Garza was the only alternative candidate considered by Bush. Depriving the Supreme Court of his only black Judge could mobilize black turnout against Bush: in 1992 North Carolina could flip to Clinton. Florida is an other possibility, although more remote (Garza could strengthen a pro-Bush Hispanic turnout as well, I guess).
In the Senate Wyche Fowler could defeat Paul Coverdell in Georgia and Terry Sanford get reelection against Lauch Faircloth in North Carolina. Other possibilities, although less probable, are Lynn Yeakel win against Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania and Robert Abrams win against Al D'Amato in New York. At end Democrats finish with a clear victory, increasing their majority by at least one seat (58-42). In the most successful case they would have a 60-40 majority, enough to break any filibuster. This could proved decisive during first legislative acts of Clinton Administration, as healthcare.