Obviously in OTL the Nationalist rebels were able to defeat the armed forces of the Second Spanish Republic and established a Fascist dictatorship. However, what if in an ATL it was the Second Spanish Republic that emerged triumphant. How would this change global events?
WI the Second Spanish Republic won the Spanish Civil War?
- Thread starter CanveyFanNumberOne
- Start date
I didn't think that the Soviets gained that much influence in Spain during the Civil War.
Germany overruns Spain in 1940 after conquering France. It is liberated in 1944 at the same time as Operarion Dragoon. Infante Juan is installed as King of Spain to minimize communist influence.
On top of that, though, a good portion of the Second Republic's structure would remain or be heavily reformed. In that case, the new Spanish Constitution would be closer to general European norms than in the past (and probably would look strikingly similar in substance to the OTL 1978 Constitution, though towards a more genuinely federal structure than OTL, or Cuba's 1940 Constitution). It would be the Centre that would dominate, though not the old parties of the past (which were heavily corrupted to begin with). Instead, especially considering the new directions the Vatican was willing to go, it could take on new direction, with a Christian-democratic party tacking towards the centre-right (similar to West Germany's CDU or Italy's DC), or even two Christian-democratic parties with one aiming for the centre-right and one for the centre-left (akin to Adolfo Suárez's later CDS); a liberal party appealing towards the centre, though with centre-right tendencies (and hence similar to Italy's PLI or the West German FDP), and a generic social-democratic party arising from the more reformist currents of the PSOE (and hence similar to the West German SPD or Italian PSDI). Diego Martínez Barrio's Republican Union Party could also serve as a counterpart here to the Italian Republican Party, though obviously with a changed name. Spain would still be a participant in the general European economic miracle and would become a devotee of the European integration project much earlier than OTL, not to mention eventually catching up fast to the 20th century in terms of everything else (so land reform would still be a priority, but with much less intensity than under the Republic).
The main change would be in Latin America. Many authoritarian states in the region had looked to Francoist Spain as a model for how to run society without having the Left (broadly defined) as a major force, and for a brief period (by only looking surface-deep) it seemed like Spain under Franco (and, for that matter, Portugal under Salazar) managed to become successful. Without a successful model of a right-wing authoritarian state lingering on past WW2, it would be difficult to see authoritarianism surviving past WW2. If conflict does emerge, than most of Latin America would look like Colombia during this period rather than the stereotypical military dictatorships.
Would the Republic Declare War on the Axis as revenge for Germany and Italy supporting Franco?
Probably once Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Vichy France actually decide to invade Spain as punishment, promptly installing an actual Fascist régime (not just Francoist). Portugal under Salazar would be under pressure to join but Salazar would decline, to avoid upsetting the traditional alliance with Britain. In which case, it'll just be the Axis occupation of Greece + the Peninsular War amp'ed up, and a lot of dead people (including great danger for Spain's Jewish community unless the Republic - in one of its last acts before it gets crushed - manages to evacuate them out).
mial42
Gone Fishin'
They did; it was because of them that the Spanish Communist Party (highly loyal to Moscow) took over the Republic (in a process described by George Orwell in his memoir Homage to Catalonia). This is because the Soviets were the only major outside backers of the Republic (Mexico backed the Republic as well, but Mexico wasn't exactly a great power). The Soviets gave the Republic guns, airplanes, and tanks; the Republic gave the Soviets most of their gold reserves in exchange. Now, Soviet help OTL wasn't enough for the Republic to win, so if they win because the UK gets their heads out of their asses and helps them (France probably won't do more then OTL because of how fiercely divided they were politically), then the Soviets won't have as much influence. Likewise, if they win quickly because the Nationalists screw up worse at the beginning, or the uprising is crushed in more places, the Soviets won't have too much influence. But if it's a long, grueling war with the Soviets as their only big backer? The Republic will come out extremely Red.
If germans get involved in spain [1940] then you can forget Barbarossa , and a very early end to ww2.No guarantee they will fare better than Napoleon.
Not quite, no. Although Salazar was pretty sympathetic to Franco's regime, he is also very much aware of Portugal's weak position and hence would prefer neutrality. While it would certainly be possible for Portugal to join the Allies here (a stronger chance than OTL), in reality Portugal wouldn't offer much in terms of manpower. I'd see it therefore as first Portugal being neutral as the Republic is over-run by the Axis (which Salazar is probably thinking "good riddance"), then eventually switching over to the Allies as soon as the Americans join and are looking for suitable bases - on the condition that the Spanish Republic is not reformed, for security reasons (which the US would understand, as anti-Communist as the US also was at this time).
The Soviet faction gave it to the Soviets. The guns and weapons were originally free, though mostly only given to Stalinists who then got to control who got them. They got the gold out under cover of night and their cover story if anyone found them was that they were sending it to New York where it would be safe, rather than Moscow where it was seized, the value under recorded, and then got deductions with inflated prices for war goods. I see a very low chance of any gold returning to Spain, even if the Republicans did win and even if they were let by the Stalinist rather than a coalition of the many factions who disliked Stalin or communism.
They were the main suppliers to the Republic, given the Anglo-French embargo.
Rivercat893
Banned
The Second Spanish Republic surviving the Spanish Civil War means that it won't be too friendly towards Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. The Republic is also ripe for an invasion by the Nazis and the Fascists like one user pointed out.
let me throw in a new idea, what if the Civil War was still ongoing in in early 1940 (maybe a few pocket's that the Nationalist are able to hold on to), what would the outcome have been.
I'm working in a TL with this "What If", but it's in spanish and at the moment I don't want to translate it.
It is possible to start a thread in spanish?
My POD is at the very first moment of the revolt in Melilla; the change butterflies general Queipo de Llano controlling in the city of Seville on July 18th because weapons are given to the unionists. The example of unionists fighting in Sevilla provoque the appointment of Largo Caballero as the new premier that same day, after the demision of premier Quiroga (instead of Manuel Barrios or José Giral). The new government is mainly socialist but with ministers of every party of the Popular Front, and the first decisions are slightly different: on July 19th's morning weapons are given to the unionist and members of PF parties and they start forming columns; the army is not disbanded but reorganised in a new Loyal Army that includes all the Guardia Civil and Guardia de Asalto that support the republic; the colectivization of lands and factories are recognised by the governement early in TTL, etc.
Exactly: The point in TTL is that without the airbase of Sevilla or Granada, the airbridge between northafrica and Spain is less efficient and even if the nationalists control Cadiz, Algeciras and Cordoba, they never get out of Andalucia and never unite with the troops of General Mola in the north.
In orther to change british attitude towars the conflict my idea is to change the "Convoy of Victory" event and provoque a conflic when nationalist gunboat Dato hits HMS Basilisk in Gibraltar after misidentifying it as republican. After this Britain allow France to give to Spain the weapons that were already bought at the beggining of the war. Also the discovery of Italian airplanes in french northafrica and german airplanes in the Usaramo going to nationalist Spain create another international conflict and at the end Germany and Italy stop supporting Franco.
Not much soviet influence; but in this scenario, after maybe 6 or 9 months of war, the influence will be on the side of the anarchist CNT. The socialist party in Spain will divide between the prounionists and the antiunionists. The soviets will support the moderate wing of the socialist, maybe entering the party. President Azaña will force the demision of Largo Caballero, ending the Popular Front and calling for new elections hoping to retake power for his liberal party because many right parties are illegal. If the anarquist and left-socialist unite, they will keep many of the economic reforms they have impose during war. So you may have a liberal Republic of Spain with workers self-management in half the industry and almost all the agriculture, but still capitalist (like a strange mix of Yugoslavia and Sweden?) and almost stable by 1938.
Not in this scenario. There will be anarquist volunteers in France, because they hate nazis and fascists, but the government know their military is weak... this Spain will try to modernize their industry and increase its standars of living, so maybe they will even trade with Germany (germans need tungsten). Specially if this leftist Spain is boicoted by Britain after some nationalizations (like Mexico did with their oil...).
Ok to the first part, but if Spain trade with them (like socialist Sweden did) they might wait. Maybe Italy could be more interested in controlling the Balearic Islands in order to counter the british in Malta during the Greece invasion.
Anyways, no communist influence in Spain means nobody imposes a King... after all anarquists are very anti-communists, or at least very anti-soviet-russia. And Spain is capitalist, self-managed by workers, but capitalist.
I can imagine an intense interaction between this Spain and Mexico at first, because of the backing during the war. If the spanish model of self-management has some succes (from 1937 to... lets say 1941, the have some years to show a tendency) this model may spread when the spanish population scapes from Spain during WW2 and go to Hispanic America. Imagine Peron implementing some ideas in Argentina or Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico.
Maybe is too much but... what if in this scenario Henry A Wallace during his 1943's tour in Latin America is someway influenced by those examples and became more critic towards the soviets? Maybe he repeats as vicepresident and became president in 1945.
A very different second half for the XX century, that's for sure.
It is possible to start a thread in spanish?
My POD is at the very first moment of the revolt in Melilla; the change butterflies general Queipo de Llano controlling in the city of Seville on July 18th because weapons are given to the unionists. The example of unionists fighting in Sevilla provoque the appointment of Largo Caballero as the new premier that same day, after the demision of premier Quiroga (instead of Manuel Barrios or José Giral). The new government is mainly socialist but with ministers of every party of the Popular Front, and the first decisions are slightly different: on July 19th's morning weapons are given to the unionist and members of PF parties and they start forming columns; the army is not disbanded but reorganised in a new Loyal Army that includes all the Guardia Civil and Guardia de Asalto that support the republic; the colectivization of lands and factories are recognised by the governement early in TTL, etc.
Exactly: The point in TTL is that without the airbase of Sevilla or Granada, the airbridge between northafrica and Spain is less efficient and even if the nationalists control Cadiz, Algeciras and Cordoba, they never get out of Andalucia and never unite with the troops of General Mola in the north.
Even if socialist France is willing to help Spain, Britain is not and Leon Bloom will obey his ally because France needs it.
In orther to change british attitude towars the conflict my idea is to change the "Convoy of Victory" event and provoque a conflic when nationalist gunboat Dato hits HMS Basilisk in Gibraltar after misidentifying it as republican. After this Britain allow France to give to Spain the weapons that were already bought at the beggining of the war. Also the discovery of Italian airplanes in french northafrica and german airplanes in the Usaramo going to nationalist Spain create another international conflict and at the end Germany and Italy stop supporting Franco.
Not much soviet influence; but in this scenario, after maybe 6 or 9 months of war, the influence will be on the side of the anarchist CNT. The socialist party in Spain will divide between the prounionists and the antiunionists. The soviets will support the moderate wing of the socialist, maybe entering the party. President Azaña will force the demision of Largo Caballero, ending the Popular Front and calling for new elections hoping to retake power for his liberal party because many right parties are illegal. If the anarquist and left-socialist unite, they will keep many of the economic reforms they have impose during war. So you may have a liberal Republic of Spain with workers self-management in half the industry and almost all the agriculture, but still capitalist (like a strange mix of Yugoslavia and Sweden?) and almost stable by 1938.
Not in this scenario. There will be anarquist volunteers in France, because they hate nazis and fascists, but the government know their military is weak... this Spain will try to modernize their industry and increase its standars of living, so maybe they will even trade with Germany (germans need tungsten). Specially if this leftist Spain is boicoted by Britain after some nationalizations (like Mexico did with their oil...).
Ok to the first part, but if Spain trade with them (like socialist Sweden did) they might wait. Maybe Italy could be more interested in controlling the Balearic Islands in order to counter the british in Malta during the Greece invasion.
Anyways, no communist influence in Spain means nobody imposes a King... after all anarquists are very anti-communists, or at least very anti-soviet-russia. And Spain is capitalist, self-managed by workers, but capitalist.
I can imagine an intense interaction between this Spain and Mexico at first, because of the backing during the war. If the spanish model of self-management has some succes (from 1937 to... lets say 1941, the have some years to show a tendency) this model may spread when the spanish population scapes from Spain during WW2 and go to Hispanic America. Imagine Peron implementing some ideas in Argentina or Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico.
Maybe is too much but... what if in this scenario Henry A Wallace during his 1943's tour in Latin America is someway influenced by those examples and became more critic towards the soviets? Maybe he repeats as vicepresident and became president in 1945.
A very different second half for the XX century, that's for sure.
I don't think so. The mods would have to moderate it and that's not really fair on them.