WI: The Second Russo-Japanese War

Japan, instead of bombing Pearl Harbor, launches an invasion of Siberia in order to help Hitler carve up the USSR. Plausibility? PODs? Results?
 
It is possible. I read a scenario about it in a book called Rising Sun Victorious, but I think that scenario was 1939 or 40.

In hindsight, it looks like a good idea. Vast mineral wealth of Siberia, especially oil (they go through all that trouble to extract oil, and when they get it, what do we do with it? Burn it.) it would be advantagous for Japan to take it. They could take Vladivostok with a surprise attack. Who knows, it might even be enough to topple the Stalin regime, though I'm not sure the combined Axis might could conquer the Soviet Union.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Japan, instead of bombing Pearl Harbor, launches an invasion of Siberia in order to help Hitler carve up the USSR. Plausibility? PODs? Results?

Plausible if Japan gets less of a thorough butt-kicking in the 1939 border war.

A PoD I've used in my TL: Zhukov dies in the purges, the ATL Soviet command at Kalkin Gol uses less modern tactics, the outcome is indecisive or a Pyrric Soviet victory, both sides suffer enough casualties to let it drop the issue for a whole, but Japanese generals remain convinced that next time, with more forces committed, they can win.

Results: It's August Storm four years in advance, Japanese are kicked out of Manchuria but entrench in Korea, they find it difficult to sustain troops in China, kick the Soviets out of Sakhalin, the Japanese are forced to redeploy troops from China to Korea, likely a stalemate ensues. Depending on timing, Stalin cannot use Far East troops to stop Germans from getting close to Moscow, which may mean big trouble to Russia.
 

Onyx

Banned
Heh, it's kinda sad that no-one in the world remembered Nomohan and Kalkin Gol, the Japs got there asses kicked for the first time, talk about Karma in the Russo-Japanese War.

Oh yeah........
The Japanese Tiger Cavalry can never defeat the almighty!
*Super Dramatic Anime Pause*
BEAR CAVALRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
It is possible. I read a scenario about it in a book called Rising Sun Victorious, but I think that scenario was 1939 or 40.

In hindsight, it looks like a good idea. Vast mineral wealth of Siberia, especially oil (they go through all that trouble to extract oil, and when they get it, what do we do with it? Burn it.) it would be advantagous for Japan to take it. They could take Vladivostok with a surprise attack. Who knows, it might even be enough to topple the Stalin regime, though I'm not sure the combined Axis might could conquer the Soviet Union.

Oh my. Not this again.

There's been many threads on the subject but:

1. Vladivostok is the only plausible target. Everything else is connected by a single railroad, so even Irkutsk is out of the question.

2. Factories and oil and such are all in WESTERN Siberia. As far as the Japanese army goes, it may as well be on the Moon.

3. Say there's no Zhukov - the much older and less imaginative Blyukher held them off just fine - not well enough for Stalin, but well enough to make the Japanese take a whole year to try again.

4. "Siberian" troops were mostly from Western Siberia too, and only a small fraction were actual Far Eastern units or even recruited from Siberian military districts. They were organized east of the Urals, however. So even with most if not all units tied up in the East, very little changes in the battle for Moscow.

In short, not a good idea for Japan.
 
Siberian Oil had been discovered in 1960s.
And I've read that some of "Siberian rifles" were from Far East. But the thing is, Opanassenko (Far Eastern Military District boss) managed to draft and train new units as fast as older ones were shipped West. So Japanese never had a weak opponent.

P.S. I've read at least 2 "Japanese defeats Soviet Russia" scenarios. Both share the trait of being absolutely out of whack with reality. Authors are working as far as they can to pretend that Nomonhan didn't happen.
 
Results: It's August Storm four years in advance, Japanese are kicked out of Manchuria but entrench in Korea, they find it difficult to sustain troops in China, kick the Soviets out of Sakhalin, the Japanese are forced to redeploy troops from China to Korea, likely a stalemate ensues. Depending on timing, Stalin cannot use Far East troops to stop Germans from getting close to Moscow, which may mean big trouble to Russia.
August Storm? WTF the Soviets couldn't pull off Finland in '39, never mind they didn't have the logistics, equipment, and experience to do anything of 1945 scale. Besides the Kwantung army was stronger in '39 than '45.

Japan's hypothetic attack on the RFE will fail, but they're not going to lose North China either.
 
Sweet suffering succotash... Here we go again... :rolleyes:

It's been what? Maybe 90 days since we collectively shot down this foolishness in the last hurr durr Japan getz oil/vast mineral wealth in Siberia/Sakhalin Islands/Land of OZ durr hurr thread?

Is there an amnesia virus that sweeps the board quarterly or something? There's even another Downfall thread active and many of the participants there are acting as if they never read the hundreds of other Downfall threads despite having having high post counts. Go figure.

Also, does the Search function only appear on my page and not the pages of anyone else?

Once again, Japan in the 1930s and 1940s does not have the following:

- The petro-geological theory or knowledge to predict the presence of potential oil bearing strata.
- The technology to detect and pinpoint such strata.
- The technology to drill to and exploit such strata.

Siberia is not some ready made filling station Japan can blithely drive into for a fill-up. All grabbing Siberia is going to do is divert Japanese assets and supplies from more pressing and important tasks.


Bill
 
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