WI: The SDP wins the Richmond By-Election

At the Richmond (Yorks) by-election in 1989 (which was won by future Tory leader and Foreign Secretary William Hague) the rump continuity SDP which refused to merge with the Liberal Party and form the (Social and) Liberal Democrats, managed to come within 2,500 votes of winning. Basically WI the SDP had managed to win the by-election - could this have prevented the embarrassment of Bootle in by-election and perhaps prevented the party disintegrating in May 1990 and perhaps enabled the two SDP MP's (John Cartwright and Rosie Barnes) and perhaps David Owen himself to hold their seats at the 1992 General Election?
 
It'd have given the continuity SDP a mildly longer lease of life, but probably not up to the 1992 election given the membership/financial situation they were in. Maybe they can get that stabilised, but I doubt this. Even Doctor Death seems to have realised that the game was just about up. Crucially, them not getting laughed out of court would depend upon the Good Doctor getting more control over candidate selection/by election choice, which he had minimal control over.

The Greens might do a little better out of exploiting the OTL clusterfuck of post-87 just a wee bit longer. But really, the main effect of this would be to stunt the Lib Dems going into '92.

If Barnes and Cartwright can make it past the 1992 election, then the obvious termination of their wilderness period is in being the first star recruits of New Labour.
 
Consequences..

The first consequence is William Hague's political career is either terminated or severely curtailed. IF he gets into Parliament in 1992 rather than 1989, he would be in no position to challenge for the party leadership after a defeat in 1997 (if the ATL goes the same way).

Interesting to note two of Mike Potter's campaign team then were Andrew Cooper and Danny Finkelstein who eventually both became Conservatives.
 
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