Tend to agree that Vinland was just too far with the sailing technology available at the time. It might not die, but it probably wouldn't grow. The more likely scenario is that a surviving Vinland would focus on fishing the Grand Banks to support a local populace, while a large seasonal occupation being logging to provide timber to Greenland. A Vinland-Greenland shipbuilding program would allow easier contact between Greenland-Iceland-Norway, potentially preventing the gradual collapse that lead to Greenland failing mid-15th century.
The real differences would probably start in OTL colonization period, once sailing technology has improved enough to allow a direct Norway-Vinland route. If Vinland is still struggling along and is semi-connected to Scandinavia, then you'd probably see that colony receive a boost as early Christian II in the 1520's. Considering in OTL the actual permanent European settlements only really started after 1600, that alone is a huge advantage. The locals would also by necessity know the surrounding waters, and natives. If Vinland died, it still provides a claim by Norway (or Denmark-Norway) to the New World. It would really have an affect as this might mean that rather than repeated failed expeditions to Greenland, Denmark-Norway would be aiming for a more southern Vinland. Considering how silly some of the beliefs of early explorers were, an English explorer thought the Hudson River was the Northwest Passage, Norwegian/Danish explorers sent by Christian IV could land in OTL New York and declare it Vinland. Not sure whether it would change anything with more populous and powerful Netherlands/England/France developing colonies around this time, but it would be something to give Denmark-Norway a chance.
So the way I see it, a
flourishing Vinland that leads to easy Norse North America is bordering ASB 1000-1500. Maybe possible, but would be extremely unlikely. You'd need massive luck.
A
surviving Greenland-Vinland that remains
connected to Iceland-Norway is possible, but would still be unlikely.
A
surviving Vinland that is
isolated to Iceland-Norway is even more likely. Greenland dies over time like OTL, but some of its settlers go to a Vinland that is still holding on and is having a less hard time. The loss of Greenland almost certainly leads to Vinland becoming disconnected with Iceland-Norway. Vinland to survive likely has grown to a population of ~20,000, and is probably focused around the Gulf of St. Lawrence while trading with natives.
A
dead Vinland that however did exist similar to Greenland between 1000-1450 is almost certainly the most likely except OTL failure immediately.
A dead Vinland would probably lead to a New Vinland between 1520-1620, with the earlier the more likely it is to survive and not become another New Sweden (prestige project ultimately ignored and then annexed without a fight by more populous colonies).
A surviving but isolated Vinland is probably contacted by early explorers of numerous nations, but Denmark-Norway is likely to have the best luck in negotiations with them due to language and semi-similar culture (these Vinlanders have probably gone native to some degree). This Vinland probably becomes a protectorate/colony, but with significant privileges and/or self-governance as early there's no way a single explorer ship or two is overrunning a Vinland people probably numbering several ten thousand. This is actually the scenario I'd go for. A stable populace would provide a base for Norse colonization, but a Norse population isolated and interacting with natives would be very interesting to explore. Then having these people negotiate with Denmark-Norway's explorers would be fascinating, as well as going into how their interactions work with Vinland's people regard to immigration from Europe, the policies with local natives, and the simple back and forth between Vinland's local leaders and Denmark-Norway's nobles and riksrad.
A Vinland-Greenland that survived and remained connected to Europe through trade would be when you start having noticeable effects on European culture. You might have maps of Vinland and its surroundings available in Europe, or at least rumors from word of mouth. This could greatly affect North American colonization as a whole. You might have had Christian missionaries there, and Norwegian politics might have been affected.
A flourishing Vinland colony, while the most popular in regards to Vinaldn TL's, is already stated as near ASB in my opinion. So I'll just leave that alone.
Now for the specific questions of this thread for more specifics.
- Native American depopulation from European diseases happens circ. 1000 CE, centuries before OTL European colonization of the Americas happens, which enables the native Americans to rebound and better resist those diseases when colonization does happen.
- Europe is aware of the western continent much, much earlier. No idea the implications.
- Native Americans and Scandinavians develop better trading ties, spreading animals and technology Westward. No idea the implications.
1) I doubt anything but a thriving Vinland would be able to establish the trade networks to spread disease far and wide. So probably only the local peoples would be affected, and even then by not as much as the naval trips would probably kill the sick on the way over. Vinland itself meanwhile probably wouldn't have the population to really support regular epidemics. The biggest change might be the addition of cows, chicken, horses, and sheep that provide diseases.
2) In an isolated Vinland scenario, Europe could easily have little to no more knowledge. Even in a scenario where Vinland remains connected by trade, it might not make much of a difference. Not like much of Europe knew much about Greenland. There might be a few maps floating around, but I sort of doubt it.
3) Once again, I think it would only be around the St. Lawrence Gulf that most of the interaction would occur. At least directly. If the local natives traded (or stole) cows and chicken in 1000, they might be all over North America by 1500. The Norse weren't so much for horses though, especially as transporting them from Europe would be difficult. So probably no horses. You might see basic ironworking have developed around the St. Lawrence by natives, but probably only among those tribes that intermarried with the Vinlanders. I doubt the Vinlanders would have ventured far enough to get corn, and poteatoes are way too far unless you go the ASB level flourishing Vinland scenario. Not sure what other exchanges might happen.
Honestly, writing this only made me more heavily consider the isolated Vinland scenario. A multiracial, mixed-race, and multicultural web of cultures in the Gulf of St. Lawrence would be interesting alone, much less how they'd interact with early European explorers and colonization attempts. A Vinland civilization as a Danish protectorate as they weren't able to be fully subjugated and thus gained privileges would be fun.
