WI: The scale of Serbia's involvement in the Black Hand is revealed just after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand?

Let's say that the intelligence division of Austria-Hungary, and specifically their investigations into the Black Hand, is significantly better than OTL. They are able to capture enough Black Hand agents or otherwise investigate the organization thoroughly enough that shortly after Franz Ferdinand is killed in Sarajevo, they have enough evidence linking the organization to the Serbian government to make a convincing case to the international community. How will this change the reactions of the Great Powers if they now all believe that Serbia was essentially an accomplice to regicide? Is it actually going to change anything in regards to Russia and the entente stepping in on Serbia's side?
 
The Austrian investigation was very incompetent. Almost immediately they latched on to the idea that Narodna Odbrana (a Serbian patriotic society) was behind the assassination, and tunnel visioned in on that idea. Needless to say they didn't find the links that didn't exist, and yet they kept that line of inquiry right up until the Common Army captured Belgrade and shook the city upside-down for evidence. Only then, with a mountain of evidence answering every question they had about the assassination, did they realize that Narodna Odbrana had little to do with the assassination (other than some membership/ideological overlap with the Black Hand and Young Bosnia).

Now, should the Austrian authorities either conduct a proper investigation and conclude that the Black Hand is at fault, or arbitrarily focus in on the Black Hand as they had Narodna Odbrana, then things could go differently. In For God and Kaiser Richard Bassett speculated that the international response to the Austrian Ultimatum and the Serbian reply to it may have had a different tone had the Habsburgs correctly blamed the openly regicidal terrorists who were effectively holding the Serbian government hostage.
 
Nothing.
Russia would claim it was Austrian disinformation, smearing their Slavic brothers

OTL here's a snip the New England Stamp Monthly from November 1914
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and the _War In Europe_ October 14, 1914 from the foreword
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So this early, it was well know that the Black Hand was involved, but didn't think the Government at the top levels was involved, but was down the way.

Later it would come out that the Black Hand did it to force the hand of PM Nikola Pasic, whom they believed was not doing enough to pressure the Austrians out of Bosnia, so the Serbians could naturally control it
 

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The Austrian investigation was very incompetent. Almost immediately they latched on to the idea that Narodna Odbrana (a Serbian patriotic society) was behind the assassination, and tunnel visioned in on that idea. Needless to say they didn't find the links that didn't exist, and yet they kept that line of inquiry right up until the Common Army captured Belgrade and shook the city upside-down for evidence. Only then, with a mountain of evidence answering every question they had about the assassination, did they realize that Narodna Odbrana had little to do with the assassination (other than some membership/ideological overlap with the Black Hand and Young Bosnia).
Other than that Apis went rogue and the Executive Committee of the Black Hand did absolutely nothing over the four weeksthat the Assassins were stooging around Sarajevo, staying at Black Hand Safehouses
 
The Serbian Prime Minister was firmly against the assassination plan and did what was in his power to try to stop it, so Belgrade would still claim innocence.
Austria didn't give a dam if the perpetrators were Serbian, Turkish, Chinese or even Martians, they only wanted a good reason to kill a bunch of Serbians and "solve" the Slavic irredentism problem: they pointed their guns quicker then their finger and they would do this anyway.
Russia had pledged to defend Serbia and all others "Slavic orthodox brothers" and would not allow Belgrade to be annihilated: they were just humiliated during the Bosnian Annexation Crisis in 1908, there's no way the Tsar will sit out and leave Serbia in Franz Joseph's Generals' hands.
And if Russia is involved Germany is involved and so France and all others.
 
Nothing.
Russia would claim it was Austrian disinformation, smearing their Slavic brothers

OTL here's a snip the New England Stamp Monthly from November 1914
View attachment 570746
and the _War In Europe_ October 14, 1914 from the foreword
View attachment 570749
View attachment 570751
View attachment 570752

So this early, it was well know that the Black Hand was involved, but didn't think the Government at the top levels was involved, but was down the way.

Later it would come out that the Black Hand did it to force the hand of PM Nikola Pasic, whom they believed was not doing enough to pressure the Austrians out of Bosnia, so the Serbians could naturally control it
To be honest I'm not sure quoting newspaper articles made after the War was already over 2 months old (even if from the New England Stamp Monthly) really gives us much insight on what @SealTheRealDeal was alluding to about how things might have turned out had the Austrians acted differently in the leadup to August 1914.
 
To be honest I'm not sure quoting newspaper articles made after the War was already over 2 months old (even if from the New England Stamp Monthly) really gives us much insight on what @SealTheRealDeal was alluding to about how things might have turned out had the Austrians acted differently in the leadup to August 1914.
Just that in a neutral country(USA) just after the War started, it was already out there that the assassination was from the Serbian Black Hand secret Society, and while obviously had contacts/allies within the Serbian Government, probably wasn't set in motion by the leaders of Serbian Government.

The OP wanted that more evidence of the links Black Hand to the Government be put forth, like that Cell in Sarajevo was controlled by Apis, aka Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijevic of the Serbian Army, who was the top of the Black Hand, and assisted by Serbian Major Tankosic, who bolth were involved with the earlier Regicide of King Alexander and every member of the Obrenovic Dynasty down to 3rd cousins
That's the only bit really missing from the early period reports

Even with that info out there, that wouldn't have stopped Russian Mobilization, or Pasic executing most of the remaining Black Hand leadership after some show trials that they were trying of overthrow the Serbian government two years later
Conveniently killing everyone involved with the assassination, as a late coverup. Didn't want those guys talking.
 
. . How will this change the reactions of the Great Powers if they now all believe that Serbia was essentially an accomplice to regicide? . .
Serbia finds far fewer friends. They go along with the “unreasonable” demands of Austria-Hungary which are now not so unreasonable. WWI is averted.

And I compliment you on a timeline which is very much under-explored.
 
Nothing.
Russia would claim it was Austrian disinformation, smearing their Slavic brothers
And it really could play out this way. Racial prejudice being a bugaboo which still plagues us 100 years later. For example, many Japanese think very poorly of Koreans. African-Americans in the U.S. are still are not accorded equal rights as citizens, this concurrent with the belief on the part of some ‘conservstive’ citizens that we bend over backwards for African-Americans. And peace in Northern Ireland between Catholics and Protestants was found only in 1997, and hopefully the increase in tension caused by Brexit will be manageable and able to be smoothly handled.

In fact, one could almost say that . . ironically . . racism appears close to a universal human trait.

—but isn’t the other possibility that Russia feels that Serbia has embarrassed them?
 
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So this early, it was well know that the Black Hand was involved, but didn't think the Government at the top levels was involved, but was down the way.
I think you may have posted the wrong newspaper clippings. Those made no mention of the Black Hand (Ujedinjenje ili smrt/Unification or Death) and only mention Narodna Odbrana/National Defence.
 
I think you may have posted the wrong newspaper clippings. Those made no mention of the Black Hand (Ujedinjenje ili smrt/Unification or Death) and only mention Narodna Odbrana/National Defence.
By 1913 the Venn Diagram of the two orgs overlapped to one big circle. ND was the semi-secret front for BH
 
Just that in a neutral country(USA) just after the War started, it was already out there that the assassination was from the Serbian Black Hand secret Society, and while obviously had contacts/allies within the Serbian Government, probably wasn't set in motion by the leaders of Serbian Government.

The OP wanted that more evidence of the links Black Hand to the Government be put forth, like that Cell in Sarajevo was controlled by Apis, aka Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijevic of the Serbian Army, who was the top of the Black Hand, and assisted by Serbian Major Tankosic, who bolth were involved with the earlier Regicide of King Alexander and every member of the Obrenovic Dynasty down to 3rd cousins
That's the only bit really missing from the early period reports

Even with that info out there, that wouldn't have stopped Russian Mobilization, or Pasic executing most of the remaining Black Hand leadership after some show trials that they were trying of overthrow the Serbian government two years later
Conveniently killing everyone involved with the assassination, as a late coverup. Didn't want those guys talking.
Ah, gotcha. I see what you meant now.
 
If the whole story comes out...

Then the Serbian government is exonerated: the operation was carried out by "Apis" (Dimitrijevic) and his accomplices, acting without the approval or even knowledge of the PM and cabinet.

Austria would demand extradition of the conspirators. Would (Could) Serbia comply? PM Pasic may want to comply, but there may be political obstacles. The usual nitwits will defend Dimitrijevic as a hero.

If Serbia complies, Dimitrijevic & Co. become the scapegoats (though quite rightly so) and Austria has no further case against Serbia. If Serbia refuses, then no one will support them. Not even Russia will back a country which is implicated in a terrorist attack on another country and explicitly protects the perpetrators. (In OTL, Austria's position assumed Serbian guilt with no investigation.)

In either case, no larger war.
 
Then the Serbian government is exonerated
Turning a blind eye to the Terrorists isn't the quite a full exoneration
Not even Russia will back a country which is implicated in a terrorist attack on another country and explicitly protects the perpetrators.
I believe the Austrian would demand the removal of anyone connected with Narodna Odbrana , and that's much of the Government.
I don't think that would fly.
From the
Report of the International Commission on the Balkan Wars
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Austria would demand extradition of the conspirators. Would (Could) Serbia comply? PM Pasic may want to comply, but there may be political obstacles. The usual nitwits will defend Dimitrijevic as a hero.
But that's the critical problem - the Black Hand had demonstrated that they were both willing and able to topple governments - just ask Alexander I. The civilian government doesn't have effective control over the military, and cannot be trusted to reign them in.
 
But that's the critical problem - the Black Hand had demonstrated that they were both willing and able to topple governments - just ask Alexander I. The civilian government doesn't have effective control over the military, and cannot be trusted to reign them in.
This is a very different situation. The coup against Alexander and Draga had very wide support. And Apis doesn't control the military. Is Putnik going to protect him? Putnik was visiting Budapest when Austria declared war; the Austrians chivalrously allowed him to go home. In his absence, General Misic was in charge; he had been dismissed by influence of the Black Hand, but reinstated by Putnik's insistence. So I don't think the army will defy the government for Apis when Apis is clearly guilty.
 
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