WI: The Saxon Hercules Stays Lutheran

New thread, continued from here @Vitruvius @Arcavius @Jan Olbracht @alexmilman
New OP though, August the Strong has a surviving nephew, son of Johann Georg IV and Eleonore of Saxe-Eisenach (i.e. half-brother of the future queen of England if we still have Hannoverians on the throne in London). He converts to take up the crown of Poland, and is stripped from the chance of being regent of Lutheran Saxony by being a Catholic.

As much as I'm enjoying the spirited discussion of who would get Poland and how Russia would turn out, I'm wondering if we aren't getting bogged down a little in what's going on in Russia (before the POD) and how this will affect a war with Sweden. Hence I'm positing a new scenario. Basically, we still get a Wettin Poland (for lack of any real better option that everyone can agree on).

August the Strong gets elected king of Poland (like @Vitruvius pointed out, August basically carried things forward by sheer bravado at his election), but his brother had died leaving an infant son. The regency was supposed to go to August, but on his conversion to Catholicism, it was decided that a Catholic "foreign" regent would hardly act in a Protestant princedom's best interests, and so August was forced to resign the Saxonian regency in favour of his cousin, Johann Adolf I, duke of Saxe-Weißenfels on behalf of the infant prince. However, Johann Adolf dies later that year (1697) and Saxony undergoes a squabble over the regency between Johann Adolf's eldest son (Johann Georg) and his brother (Heinrich of Saxe-Weißenfels-Barby).

This is where it gets interesting. Because Johann Georg of Saxe-Weißenfels himself is underage (briefly) and August the Strong became regent for him as well. Not only this, but Johann Georg of Weißenfels made his duchy an important centre of commerce and the arts in Germany, plus he was interested in building a fleet (I was unaware that Saxony had sea-access which one would need to build a fleet, but hey, the last king of Württemberg was also ship-crazy so I guess it's not unthinkable).

Heinrich, OTOH, is ruling a county that Johann Adolf regarded as rightfully his (so there's likely to be some bad blood between brothers), and objected to his dad (August of Weißenfels) partitioning his lands among his sons. However, much like his nephew in Weißenfels, Heinrich's rule was known for it's economic and cultural importance for Barby. In addition to this, Heinz was also a soldier of some renown from his time fighting the Turks in Hungary. However, he runs into the same problem as August in that he converted - from Lutheranism to Calvinism in 1688. Which means he might be of the mind that he's the senior Protestant Wettin male but the other male Wettins are saying "no, bub".

Which brings us to the next senior Wettin male - Johann Georg and Heinrich's half brother, Friedrich Erdmann (b.1673). He was a military man and was resident in Dresden from the 1680s, he later became a lieutenant general, so once August gets entangled in this whole war with Sweden thing, I could see Saxony jumping in (if Friedrich Erdmann's regent)

I figure that August being elected means that things are going to go more or less as OTL for most of Europe - for a while at least. Maybe when August the Strong gets deposed in the early 1700s, he heads back to Dresden in the hopes that he can lasso Saxony into helping him get his Polish throne back. The Saxonian estates are probably gonna say "nope" (unless Friedrich Erdmann is regent - and even then, it'd depend on how the young elector feels about his uncle most likely)
 

Vitruvius

Donor
So if Augustus still becomes King of Poland the big question is, does the Great Northern War still play out like OTL. He's objectively a weaker King than OTL without the resources of Saxony so would Peter second guess going to war with Sweden alongside Augustus? And if they do go to war I'm not sure that Augustus could recover his throne when Charles XII deposes him. Sure he can withdraw into exile in Saxony but would the Saxon Regency stick their necks out for him at that point when things look rather bleak. I think you're right in saying nope.

It would be interesting if things go a little differently and James Louis is installed as King after Augustus. IIRC it was only his arrest by Saxon forces that prevented that from happening OTL.
 
So if Augustus still becomes King of Poland the big question is, does the Great Northern War still play out like OTL. He's objectively a weaker King than OTL without the resources of Saxony so would Peter second guess going to war with Sweden alongside Augustus? And if they do go to war I'm not sure that Augustus could recover his throne when Charles XII deposes him. Sure he can withdraw into exile in Saxony but would the Saxon Regency stick their necks out for him at that point when things look rather bleak. I think you're right in saying nope.

It would be interesting if things go a little differently and James Louis is installed as King after Augustus. IIRC it was only his arrest by Saxon forces that prevented that from happening OTL.

To be fair, how Saxony responds to August's deposition would probably depend very much who the regent is (and how much say the young elector is allowed in matters of policy - and how he feels about his Catholic uncle). I personally would like to see how Saxony gets a navy. I'm not sure how Johann Georg of Weißenfels planned to do that OTL, but it sounds like it's going to require either a purchase of a port from someone or war to get a port (in which case, Saxony might be marching right alongside Poland).

The idea of Jakub Sobieski becoming king of Poland on August's deposition is equally fascinating. I've suddenly got this image of OTL Louis XV marrying Clementina Sobieska instead of Marie Leczszynska (yes, I know it was a set of very specific circumstances that led to that match coming about, but the idea of Clementina getting an actual king rather than one with no crown and no country, is nice. Besides, Clementina was born to be a queen (or a nun) personality wise IMO, so Versailles would be an awesome setting for her to have that role in). :p
 
The idea of Jakub Sobieski becoming king of Poland on August's deposition is equally fascinating. I've suddenly got this image of OTL Louis XV marrying Clementina Sobieska instead of Marie Leczszynska (yes, I know it was a set of very specific circumstances that led to that match coming about, but the idea of Clementina getting an actual king rather than one with no crown and no country, is nice. Besides, Clementina was born to be a queen (or a nun) personality wise IMO, so Versailles would be an awesome setting for her to have that role in). :p

And the practical difference would be .... zero? :)

Wife of Louis XV, unless she is an accomplished "lady of an easy virtue", would not play any significant role except for the breeding purposes and purely ceremonial occasions (I'd consider an option of her being a modified copy of Sophie of Anhalt-Zerbst but not sure if this would work without a whorish component). As for Versailles, AFAIK, Louis XV did not like it too much and preferred accommodations with more privacy like Petit Trianon or his private apartments in Versailles (which are much more cozy and "livable" than those of Louis XIV).
 
And the practical difference would be .... zero? :)

Maybe, maybe not. OTL there was a "rivalry" of sorts between Marie Leczszynska and the duchesse de Bouillon (Charlotte Sobieska), with Charlotte claiming that "she didn't know who Marie's father was" IIRC. Plus there were several snide remarks about Marie's arrival that the only cosmetics she'd ever known before becoming queen was snow, and several courtiers commented "one did not even know who her grandparents were" - something I don't think that they would be able to say about Clementina. Also, Clementina was more highly strung than Marie, and when she heard a rumour James III had a "mistress" she made a frightful scene in Rome. Could just imagine how she might react to the presence of Mme de Chateauroux or one of the Nesle sisters.

But that's in the future.

For now, let's say that Johann Georg of Weißenfels winds up as regent for his cousin, the elector (mostly because I wanna see how Saxony gets a navy :p). The fact that there are two separate heads of state in Poland/Saxony means that they're going to be allies, but not necessarily moving in lock-step. In fact, the elector of Saxony might decide there's more to be gained in the WotSS than in getting involved in the GNW.
 
Augustus' entry to GNW seems problematic. Would Saxon troops fight to carve up hereditary duchy from Swedish Livonia for son of regent of Saxony?
 
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