Suppose that Franz Ferdinand is still assassinated in Sarajevo as per OTL, but that somewhere along the way over the next few weeks, diplomacy is able to keep the crisis from going Europe-wide. Perhaps the Germans don't give the infamous "blank check" to Austria-Hungary. Whatever the cause, the Sarajevo Crisis is seen as a temporary flare up between Serbia and Austria-Hungary rather than anything that the major powers need to be worried about.
Are we still likely to see a major war break out? If so, when? Is there any hope at all that avoidance of war in 1914 might lead to a TL in which the Great War is avoided altogether and the 20th Century passes relatively peacefully?
Discuss.