WI the Sarajevo Crisis Had Been Defused by Good Diplomacy?

Anaxagoras

Banned
Suppose that Franz Ferdinand is still assassinated in Sarajevo as per OTL, but that somewhere along the way over the next few weeks, diplomacy is able to keep the crisis from going Europe-wide. Perhaps the Germans don't give the infamous "blank check" to Austria-Hungary. Whatever the cause, the Sarajevo Crisis is seen as a temporary flare up between Serbia and Austria-Hungary rather than anything that the major powers need to be worried about.

Are we still likely to see a major war break out? If so, when? Is there any hope at all that avoidance of war in 1914 might lead to a TL in which the Great War is avoided altogether and the 20th Century passes relatively peacefully?

Discuss.
 
No German blank check would help for the Austro-Hungarians to keep things in perspective, OTOH their position on the Balkan, the fact that their heir died at the hand of Serbian radicals, terrorists in their eyes, and the recent actions of Serbia (backed by Russia) on the Balkan; makes a Austro-Hungarian will to retaliate and to put Serbia back in its place (as they see it) still a highly likely first response. Especially now that others increasingly got the impression that Austria-Hungary was loosing their position, however don't forget it still was the age of imperialism and for Austria-Hungary the Balkan was their backyard.

Furthermore any similar assassination of the heir of Russia, Germany or Britain would most likely have caused a similar sentiment and maybe an even stronger national response.

The key to prevent escalation is to prevent Russia from entering the conflict, because if Russia enters so will Germany.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
No German blank check would help for the Austro-Hungarians to keep things in perspective, OTOH their position on the Balkan, the fact that their heir died at the hand of Serbian radicals, terrorists in their eyes, and the recent actions of Serbia (backed by Russia) on the Balkan; makes a Austro-Hungarian will to retaliate and to put Serbia back in its place (as they see it) still a highly likely first response. Especially now that others increasingly got the impression that Austria-Hungary was loosing their position, however don't forget it still was the age of imperialism and for Austria-Hungary the Balkan was their backyard.

Furthermore any similar assassination of the heir of Russia, Germany or Britain would most likely have caused a similar sentiment and maybe an even stronger national response.

The key to prevent escalation is to prevent Russia from entering the conflict, because if Russia enters so will Germany.

Without the German blank check, the Austrians might have been unwilling to go to lengths that would risk Russian involvement.
 
Without the German blank check, the Austrians might have been unwilling to go to lengths that would risk Russian involvement.

That's doubtful Serbia was taunting them and challenging their position, in which was the backyard of their empire; and this assassination of the heir was a casus belli, which was understood by the other great powers (But not at all costs).
 
That's doubtful Serbia was taunting them and challenging their position, in which was the backyard of their empire; and this assassination of the heir was a casus belli, which was understood by the other great powers (But not at all costs).

Really?

That seems like a vast oversimplification of the situation.
 
Better communication between Vienna and Berlin, the Germans never knew the extent to which the Austrians' would cash their 'blank check'.

Better communication between St. Petersburg and Belgrade, the Russians should have pressured the Serbs to take their medicine (ie. the ultimatum from Vienna) and reign in their radicals.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Better communication between Vienna and Berlin, the Germans never knew the extent to which the Austrians' would cash their 'blank check'.

Better communication between St. Petersburg and Belgrade, the Russians should have pressured the Serbs to take their medicine (ie. the ultimatum from Vienna) and reign in their radicals.

Let's say both of these happen and the crisis is defused. What do the next few years look like? Is there inevitably going to be a clash of the great powers?
 
Let's say both of these happen and the crisis is defused. What do the next few years look like? Is there inevitably going to be a clash of the great powers?

Great Power diplomacy had lurched through crisis after crisis without starting a war. In a few years you'd reach a point where Germany's going to be unwilling to start a war against both France and newly powerful Russia and France won't want to act without Britain, who won't support a possible french invasion of Belgium to bypass Alsace-Lorraine.

If everything goes well, we might see an Anglo-German naval conference resulting in a 2-1 ratio when both sides realise their arms race isn't affordable. General tensions in Europe would also decrease somewhat after the French who saw the Franco-Prussian war firsthand die off. No Great War will mean a much better world, and a Russo-German duopoly in European economics and military power.
 
Really?

That seems like a vast oversimplification of the situation.

Serbia and Serbian radicals were causing trouble and annoyance for Vienna; and Vienna did want to put Serbia back into its place (that is a position were Vienna would be more comfortable with).

Better communication between Vienna and Berlin, the Germans never knew the extent to which the Austrians' would cash their 'blank check'.

Better communication between St. Petersburg and Belgrade, the Russians should have pressured the Serbs to take their medicine (ie. the ultimatum from Vienna) and reign in their radicals.

I agree, both Vienna and Belgrade should have been put under more diplomatic pressure. Although Belgrade was willing to go far, Vienna OTOH wasn't willing to compromise (yet), which in part was because of what I mentioned in my previous post.
 
You forget that all nations involved (except Serbia) wanted the war. Serbia however met all the demands Austria made in 1914 and was still attacked.
If Germany did not give Austria the carte blanche then Austria would still make demands (that will be met by Serbia) but will not invade Serbia, because they fear that Russia will attack in order to prevent this.

But the Great War itself was unavoidable. If it did not start in 1914 it would have started in the next ten or twenty years.
 
The dynastic change in Serbia from a pro-Austrian dynasty to a pro-Russian dynasty and the Austrian annexation of Bosnia, had seriously damaged the relations between Austria-Hungary and Serbia.

Regarding 1914 Serbia met all demands except one, the sixth.

From wiki:eek::

1. Suppress all publications which "incite hatred and contempt of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy" and are "directed against its territorial integrity".
2. Dissolve the Serbian nationalist organisation "Narodna Odbrana" ("The People's Defense") and all other such societies in Serbia.
3. Eliminate without delay from schoolbooks and public documents all "propaganda against Austria-Hungary".
4. Remove from the Serbian military and civil administration all officers and functionaries whose names the Austro-Hungarian Government will provide.
5. Accept in Serbia "representatives of the Austro-Hungarian Government" for the "suppression of subversive movements".
6. Bring to trial all accessories to the Archduke's assassination and allow "Austro-Hungarian delegates" (law enforcement officers) to take part in the investigations.
7. Arrest Major Voja Tankosić and civil servant Milan Ciganović who were named as participants in the assassination plot.
8. Cease the cooperation of the Serbian authorities in the "traffic in arms and explosives across the frontier"; dismiss and punish the officials of the at Shabatz Loznica frontier service, "guilty of having assisted the perpetrators of the Sarajevo crime".
9. Provide "explanations" to the Austro-Hungarian Government regarding "Serbian officials" who have expressed themselves in interviews "in terms of hostility to the Austro-Hungarian Government".
10. Notify the Austro-Hungarian Government "without delay" of the execution of the measures comprised in the ultimatum.

Serbia felt that this hurt their sovereignty, especially since these Austrian delegates were supposed to lead these investigations.
Austrians leading these investigations are a bit much, but Austrian delegates in a Serbian lead investigation could be an unpopular compromise.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Most of the major powers overestimated the benefits and underestimated the costs of a war. The war was met with popular approval in all countries. The CP/Entente system with the automatic war declaration upon someone mobilizing made a major war almost inevitable. The war could have been fought over the Morocco crisis, or the earlier Balkans wars, or something else that would have happened later on.

Look at country by county.

Serbia's secret service killed the #2 of the country. They kept fighting up to losing 100% of there land and taking 25% casualties.

AH. Had been attacked. Had many potentially unhappy minorities. Not responding can easily lead to chain of events that breakup the AH. The USA went on "unconditional surrender" against Japan over 3K killed. We are in 10 year war on 3K killed. I believe the assassination of a USA VP or Speaker of House leads to USA war declaration 100% of the time.

Russia chose to ally with France instead of work out three way deal with AH and Germany. Russia's leaders had this Pan Slavic views, even for people they had never controlled. To not mobilize, would have been to destroy this key Russian dream. Also, if Russia delays mobilization for several more weeks or months, then Serbia will fall. Russia also risks AH turning it mobilized army against them after Serbia. They could be fighting our time line WW1, but in late 1915. The difference being all the AH armies are fighting Russia and AH takes the offensive. Also, Italy would likely not enter the war if Russia was indecisive and AH won most of the battles for the first year.

If Germany allowed Russia to fully mobilize without mobilizing, it would be easy prey. There war plan had flaws, but it was there only war plan.

France is easy prey if it allows Russia to be defeated by AH and Germany.

Britain had more options, but it is still a WW, even if the UK sits this one out.

Only with 20/20 hindsight is it possible to see the CP should have backed down. WW1 was a very close thing, and could have gone either way. Once you are a leader in the summer of 1914, it is very hard to find a way out. (BTW, with 20/20 hindsight, it is easy for the CP to win)

Serbia lit a fire, that would be almost impossible to put out. For the war to be avoided, Russia would need to be willing to accept harsh terms for Serbia. If Russia/Germany acted as mediators, then maybe war can be avoided, but this goes against both leaders very nature. Russia could not accept the harsh terms, and Germany could not abandon AH.
 
I agree, both Vienna and Belgrade should have been put under more diplomatic pressure. Although Belgrade was willing to go far, Vienna OTOH wasn't willing to compromise (yet), which in part was because of what I mentioned in my previous post.

My personal opinion is that Socialist parties were practically set to become major contending majorities in the national legislatures of both France and Germany - and probably make significant gains in other European governments. While I don't discount the mighty boost nationalism gives to actions in foreign affairs I believe that the various international European socialist parties would begin talking to each other and move towards disarming the continent.

Undoubtedly there were at least two things coming to a head in 1914. The old political order was facing losing its grip on power with the gains the Socialists were making and the various military general staffs were also facing the terrible long term multiple problems of if not using the military forces soon they would either lose them to severe financial cutbacks or Socialist back peace breaking out.

Its very speculative I agree. I agree with David Fromkin's analogy of Europe's diplomacy in July 1914 being similar to an airplane flying along peacefully then hitting an air pocket which disrupts everything. There was a whole series of fail-safes and backup systems that didn't just failed to work.
 
Diplomacy probably could not have worked. Germany would not work against its one true ally on the continent, and the Russians (and British) would not accept Austrian puppetization of Serbia.
 
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